| 1. |
- Glynn, James, et al.
(author)
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Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System : National Perspectives
- 2015
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In: Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. - Cham : Encyclopedia of Global Archaeology/Springer Verlag. - 9783319165394 - 9783319165400 ; , s. 359-387
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Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional insight into interregional competition, trade, industrial delocalisation and overall macroeconomic consequences of decarbonising the energy system. Decarbonising the energy system is critical in mitigating climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a national level. The preceding chapter focuses on a global perspective. The modelling studies outlined here show that burden sharing rules and national revenue recycling schemes for carbon tax are critical for the long-term viability of economic growth and equitable engagement on combating climate change. Traditional computable general equilibrium models and energy systems models solved in isolation can misrepresent the long run carbon cost and underestimate the demand response caused by technological paradigm shifts in a decarbonised energy system. The approaches outlined within have guided the first evidence based decarbonisation legislation and continue to provide additional insights as increased sectoral disaggregation in hybrid modelling approaches is achieved
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| 2. |
- Glynn, James, et al.
(author)
-
Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System : Global Perspectives
- 2015
-
In: Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models. - Cham : Encyclopedia of Global Archaeology/Springer Verlag. - 9783319165394 - 9783319165400 ; , s. 333-358
-
Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional insight into interregional competition, trade, industrial delocalisation and overall macroeconomic consequences of decarbonising the energy system. Decarbonising the energy system is critical in mitigating climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a global level. The next chapter of this book focuses on a national perspective. The range of economic impacts is regionally dependent upon the stage of economic development, the level of industrialisation, energy intensity of exports, and competition effects due to rates of relative decarbonisation. Developed nation’s decarbonisation targets are estimated to result in a manageable GDP loss in the region of 2 % by 2050. Energy intensive export driven developing countries such as China and India, and fossil fuel exporting nations can expect significantly higher GDP loss of up to 5 % GDP per year by mid-century.
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| 3. |
- Tattini, Jacopo, et al.
(author)
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Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models – The MoCho-TIMES model
- 2018
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In: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-9118 .- 0306-2619. ; 212, s. 265-282
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study presents MoCho-TIMES, an original methodology for incorporating modal choice into energy-economy-environment-engineering (E4) system models. MoCho-TIMES addresses the scarce ability of E4 models to realistically depict behaviour in transport and allows for modal shift towards transit and non-motorized modes as a new dimension for decarbonising the transportation sector. The novel methodology determines endogenous modal shares by incorporating variables related to the level-of-service (LoS) of modes and consumers’ modal perception within the E4 modeling framework. Heterogeneity of transport users is introduced to differentiate modal perception and preferences across different consumer groups, while modal preferences are quantified via monetization of intangible costs. A support transport simulation model consistent with the geographical scope of the E4 model provides the data and mathematical expressions required to develop the approach. This study develops MoCho-TIMES in the standalone transportation sector of TIMES-DK, the integrated energy system model for Denmark. The model is tested for the Business as Usual scenario and for four alternative scenarios that imply diverse assumptions for the new attributes introduced. The results show that different assumptions for the new attributes affect modal shares and CO2 emissions. MoCho-TIMES inaugurates the possibility to perform innovative policy analyses involving new parameters to the E4 modeling framework. The results find that authority’s commitment to sustainability is crucial for a paradigmatic change in the transportation sector.
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