| 1. |
- Bustamante, Mercedes, et al.
(författare)
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Ten new insights in climate science 2023
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS. - 2059-4798. ; 7
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-technical summary We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5 degrees C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems.Technical summary The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5 degrees C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference.Social media summary We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research - with input from more than 200 experts.
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| 2. |
- Anderson, Kevin, et al.
(författare)
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Controversies of carbon dioxide removal
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment. - : Springer Nature. - 2662-138X. ; 4:12, s. 808-814
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Various methods of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are being pursued in response to the climate crisis, but they are mostly not proven at scale. Climate experts are divided over whether CDR is a necessary requirement or a dangerous distraction from limiting emissions. In this Viewpoint, six experts offer their views on the CDR debate.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Mohan, Aniruddh, et al.
(författare)
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UNFCCC must confront the political economy of net-negative emissions
- 2021
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Ingår i: One Earth. - Cambridge, MA, United States : Cell Press. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 4:10, s. 1348-1351
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent demands by developing countries, like India, that developed countries need to reach net-negative emissions, must be negotiated seriously under the UNFCCC. Failure to acknowledge that limiting global average temperature rise to 1.5°C leaves very little carbon budget for equitable redistribution risks further ambiguity on how to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals.
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| 5. |
- Pereira, Laura M., et al.
(författare)
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From fAIrplay to climate wars : making climate change scenarios more dynamic, creative, and integrative
- 2021
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 26:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding possible climate futures that include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation modification (SRM) requires thinking not just about staying within the remaining carbon budget, but also about politics and people. However, despite growing interest in CDR and SRM, scenarios focused on these potential responses to climate change tend to exclude feedbacks between social and climate systems (a criticism applicable to climate change scenarios more generally). We adapted the Manoa Mash Up method to generate scenarios for CDR and SRM that were more integrative, creative, and dynamic. The method was modified to identify important branching points in which different choices in how to respond to climate change (feedbacks between climate and social dynamics) lead to a plurality of climate futures. An interdisciplinary group of participants imagined distant futures in which SRM or CDR develop into a major social-environmental force. Groups received other seeds of change, such as Universal Basic Income or China's Belt and Road Initiative, and surprises, such as permafrost collapse that grew to influence the course of events to 2100. Groups developed narratives describing pathways to the future and identified bifurcation points to generate families of branching scenarios. Four climate-social dynamics were identified: motivation to mitigate, moral hazard, social unrest, and trust in institutions. These dynamics could orient toward better or worse outcomes with SRM and CDR deployment (and mitigation and adaptation responses more generally) but are typically excluded from existing climate change scenarios. The importance of these dynamics could be tested through the inclusion of social-environmental feedbacks into integrated assessment models (IAM) exploring climate futures. We offer a step-by-step guide to the modified Manoa Mash-up method to generate more integrative, creative, and dynamic scenarios; reflect on broader implications of using this method for generating more dynamic scenarios for climate change research and policy; and provide examples of using the scenarios in climate policy communication, including a choose-your-own adventure game called Survive the Century (https://survivethecentury.net/), which was played by over 15,000 people in the first 2 weeks of launching.
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| 6. |
- Rickels, Wilfried, et al.
(författare)
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Integrating Carbon Dioxide Removal Into European Emissions Trading
- 2021
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2624-9553. ; 3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In one of the central scenarios for meeting an European Union-wide net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target by 2050, the emissions cap in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) becomes net negative. Despite this ambition, no mechanism allows for the inclusion of CO2 removal credits (CRCs) in the EU ETS to date. Amending the EU ETS legislation is required to create enabling conditions for a net negative cap. Here, we conceptually discuss various economic, legal, and political challenges surrounding the integration of CRCs into the EU ETS. To analyze cap-and-trade systems encompassing negative emissions, we introduce the effective (elastic) cap resulting from the integration of CRCs in addition to the regulatory (inelastic) cap, the latter now being binding for the net emissions only. Given current cost estimates for BECCS and DACCS, minimum quantities for the use of removals, as opposed to ceilings as currently discussed, would be required to promote the near-term integration of such technologies. Instead of direct interaction between the companies involved in emissions trading and the providers of CRCs, the regulatory authority could also transitionally act as an intermediary by buying CRCs and supplying them in turn conditional upon observed allowances prices, for example, by supporting a (soft) price collar. Contrary to a price collar without dedicated support from CRCs, in this case (net) compliance with the overall cap is maintained. EU legislation already provides safeguards for physical carbon leakage concerning CCS, making Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Direct Air Capture and Storage prioritized for inclusion in the EU ETS. Furthermore, a special opportunity might apply for the inclusion of BECCS installations. Repealing the provision that installations exclusively using biomass are not covered by the ETS Directive, combined with freely allocated allowances to these installations, would allow operators of biomass installations to sell allowances made available through the use of BECCS. Achieving GHG neutrality in the EU by 2050 requires designing suitable incentive systems for CO2 removal, which includes the option to open up EU emissions trading to CRCs.
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| 7. |
- Rickels, Wilfried, et al.
(författare)
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The future of (negative) emissions trading in the European Union
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Under the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), operators must surrender allowances corresponding to the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from their installations. The supply of allowances in the EU ETS decreases linearly and, all else equal, is expected to end around 2057. An earlier cut-off date is likely to follow from the European Council’s recent decision that the EU should reach net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. Scenarios published by the European Commission even anticipate a net-negative cap in the EU ETS from 2045 onwards, generated through carbon dioxide (CO2) removals. Upholding emissions trading, in the long run, therefore entails significant use of credits resulting from atmospheric CO2 removal activities. However, in its current form, the ETS Directive does not contain any legal basis for generating CO2 removal credits. Integrating CO2 removal into the EU ETS would, thus, require fundamental amendments of the ETS Directive, waiving the currently mandatory association binding emitting activities to the adoption of emission abatement technologies. The next policy window for such amendments will open in 2021, following the decision on a more ambitious EU 2030 emission reduction target. This conceptual paper explores various design options for integrating negative emissions technologies (NETs) into the EU ETS. We discuss their potential implications for emissions trading at large and address the specificity of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): repealing the provision that installations exclusively using biomass are not covered by the ETS Directive, BE(CCS) installations could in principle fall within the scope of the ETS Directive. Theoretically, it would be possible to consider free allocation of biogenic credits to BE(CCS) installations. Bioenergy operators could avoid having to surrender these biogenic allowances through the use of CCS and instead sell them on the EU ETS market, having implicitly received credits for the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere.
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| 8. |
- Schenuit, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Carbon Dioxide Removal Policy in the Making : Assessing Developments in 9 OECD Cases
- 2021
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2624-9553.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, spurred by the 2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, net zero emission targets have emerged as a new organizing principle of climate policy. In this context, climate policymakers and stakeholders have been shifting their attention to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) as an inevitable component of net zero targets. The importance of CDR would increase further if countries and other entities set net-negative emissions targets. The scientific literature on CDR governance and policy is still rather scarce, with empirical case studies and comparisons largely missing. Based on an analytical framework that draws on the multi-level perspective of sociotechnical transitions as well as existing work on CDR governance, we gathered and assessed empirical material until early 2021 from 9 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) cases: the European Union and three of its Member States (Ireland, Germany, and Sweden), Norway, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. Based on a synthesis of differences and commonalities, we propose a tripartite conceptual typology of the varieties of CDR policymaking: (1) incremental modification of existing national policy mixes, (2) early integration of CDR policy that treats emission reductions and removals as fungible, and (3) proactive CDR policy entrepreneurship with support for niche development. Although these types do not necessarily cover all dimensions relevant for CDR policy and are based on a limited set of cases, the conceptual typology might spur future comparative work as well as more fine-grained case-studies on established and emerging CDR policies.
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