| 1. |
- Gallego-Sala, Angela V., et al.
(författare)
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Latitudinal limits to the predicted increase of the peatland carbon sink with warming
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 8:10, s. 907-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The carbon sink potential of peatlands depends on the balance of carbon uptake by plants and microbial decomposition. The rates of both these processes will increase with warming but it remains unclear which will dominate the global peatland response. Here we examine the global relationship between peatland carbon accumulation rates during the last millennium and planetary-scale climate space. A positive relationship is found between carbon accumulation and cumulative photosynthetically active radiation during the growing season for mid- to high-latitude peatlands in both hemispheres. However, this relationship reverses at lower latitudes, suggesting that carbon accumulation is lower under the warmest climate regimes. Projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios indicate that the present-day global sink will increase slightly until around AD 2100 but decline thereafter. Peatlands will remain a carbon sink in the future, but their response to warming switches from a negative to a positive climate feedback (decreased carbon sink with warming) at the end of the twenty-first century.
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| 2. |
- Githumbi, Esther, et al.
(författare)
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European pollen-based REVEALS land-cover reconstructions for the Holocene : Methodology, mapping and potentials
- 2022
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 14:4, s. 1581-1619
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Quantitative reconstructions of past land cover are necessary to determine the processes involved in climate-human-land-cover interactions. We present the first temporally continuous and most spatially extensive pollen-based land-cover reconstruction for Europe over the Holocene (last 11g€¯700g€¯calg€¯yrg€¯BP). We describe how vegetation cover has been quantified from pollen records at a 11 spatial scale using the "Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites"(REVEALS) model. REVEALS calculates estimates of past regional vegetation cover in proportions or percentages. REVEALS has been applied to 1128 pollen records across Europe and part of the eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea-Caspian corridor (30-75° N, 25° W-50° E) to reconstruct the percentage cover of 31 plant taxa assigned to 12 plant functional types (PFTs) and 3 land-cover types (LCTs). A new synthesis of relative pollen productivities (RPPs) for European plant taxa was performed for this reconstruction. It includes multiple RPP values (≥2 values) for 39 taxa and single values for 15 taxa (total of 54 taxa). To illustrate this, we present distribution maps for five taxa (Calluna vulgaris, Cerealia type (t)., Picea abies, deciduous Quercus t. and evergreen Quercus t.) and three land-cover types (open land, OL; evergreen trees, ETs; and summer-green trees, STs) for eight selected time windows. The reliability of the REVEALS reconstructions and issues related to the interpretation of the results in terms of landscape openness and human-induced vegetation change are discussed. This is followed by a review of the current use of this reconstruction and its future potential utility and development. REVEALS data quality are primarily determined by pollen count data (pollen count and sample, pollen identification, and chronology) and site type and number (lake or bog, large or small, one site vs. multiple sites) used for REVEALS analysis (for each grid cell). A large number of sites with high-quality pollen count data will produce more reliable land-cover estimates with lower standard errors compared to a low number of sites with lower-quality pollen count data. The REVEALS data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.937075 (Fyfe et al., 2022).
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| 3. |
- Githumbi, Esther, et al.
(författare)
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Holocene quantitative pollen-based vegetation reconstructions in Europe for climate modelling: LandClim II
- 2019
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding land use and land cover (LULC) change through time is an important aspect when attempting to interpret human-environment interactions through time. Palaeoenvironmental techniques have been crucial in bridging this gap by providing information that has been used to estimate climate change, vegetation change, sea level change etc. through time using a variety of proxies. Producing quantitative land-cover reconstructions has been an aim and a challenge with several methods attempted during the decades. In this project, we use the REVEALS model has been tested and validated in several regions of the world.We use REVEALS-based quantitative reconstructions of vegetation change to investigate the biogeochemical and biogeophysical forcings of land-cover change on climate. In the first phase of this project, LandClim I, quantitative vegetation reconstructions were produced for Europe (Mediterranean area excluded) focusing on five time windows of the Holocene between 6ka BP and present. The results from a regional climate model showed that the impact of the reconstructed LULC between 6 ka and 0.2 ka BP via biogeophysical forcing varied geographically and seasonally. We present the REVEALS quantitative pollen-based vegetation reconstruction from the ongoing second phase of the project LandClim II “Quantification of the biogeophysical and biogeochemical forcings from anthropogenic deforestation on regional Holocene climate in Europe”. This reconstruction covers entire Europe and is transient over the Holocene with a time resolution of 500 years between 11.2 and 0.7ka BP, and 100 to 300 years from 0.7ka BP to modern time.
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| 4. |
- Githumbi, Esther, et al.
(författare)
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Late Holocene wetland transgression and 500 years of vegetation and fire variability in the semi-arid Amboseli landscape, southern Kenya
- 2018
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 47:6, s. 682-696
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The semi-arid Amboseli landscape, southern Kenya, is characterised by intermittent groundwater-fed wetlands that form sedimentary geoarchives recording past ecosystem changes. We present a 5000-year environmental history of a radiocarbon dated sediment core from Esambu Swamp adjacent to Amboseli National Park. Although radiocarbon dates suggest an unconformity or sedimentary gap that spans between 3800 and 500 cal year BP, the record provides a unique insight into the long-term ecosystem history and wetland processes, particularly the past 500 years. Climatic shifts, fire activity and recent anthropogenic activity drive changes in ecosystem composition. Prior to 3800 cal year BP the pollen data suggest semi-arid savanna ecosystem persisted near the wetland. The wetland transgressed at some time between 3800 and 500 cal year BP and it is difficult to constrain this timing further, and palustrine peaty sediments have accumulated since 400 cal year BP. Increased abundance of Afromontane forest taxa from adjacent highlands of Kilimanjaro and the Chyulu Hills and local arboreal taxa reflect changes in regional moisture budgets. Particularly transformative changes occurred in the last five centuries, associated with increased local biomass burning coeval with the arrival of Maa-speaking pastoralists and intensification of the ivory trade. Cereal crops occurred consistently from around 300 cal year BP, indicative of further anthropogenic activity. The study provides unique insight in Amboseli ecosystem history and the link between ecosystem drivers of change. Such long-term perspectives are crucial for future climate change and associated livelihood impacts, so that suitable responses to ensure sustainable management practices can be developed in an important conservation landscape.
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| 5. |
- Githumbi, Esther N., et al.
(författare)
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Late Pleistocene and Holocene Afromontane vegetation and headwater wetland dynamics within the Eastern Mau Forest, Kenya
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Quaternary Science. - : Wiley. - 0267-8179 .- 1099-1417. ; 36:2, s. 239-254
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Mau Forest Complex is Kenya's largest fragment of Afromontane forest, providing critical ecosystem services, and has been subject to intense land use changes since colonial times. It forms the upper catchment of rivers that drain into major drainage networks, thus supporting the livelihoods of millions of Kenyans and providing important wildlife areas. We present the results of a sedimentological and palynological analysis of a Late Pleistocene–Holocene sediment record of Afromontane forest change from Nyabuiyabui wetland in the Eastern Mau Forest, a highland region that has received limited geological characterization and palaeoecological study. Sedimentology, pollen, charcoal, X-ray fluorescence and radiocarbon data record environmental and ecosystem change over the last ~16 000 cal a bp. The pollen record suggests Afromontane forests characterized the end of the Late Pleistocene to the Holocene with dominant taxa changing from Apodytes, Celtis, Dracaena, Hagenia and Podocarpus to Cordia, Croton, Ficus, Juniperus and Olea. The Late Holocene is characterized by a more open Afromontane forest with increased grass and herbaceous cover. Continuous Poaceae, Cyperaceae and Juncaceae vegetation currently cover the wetland and the water level has been decreasing over the recent past. Intensive agroforestry since the 1920s has reduced Afromontane forest cover as introduced taxa have increased (Pinus, Cupressus and Eucalyptus).
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| 6. |
- Githumbi, Esther N., et al.
(författare)
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Pollen, People and Place : Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Ecosystem Change at Amboseli, Kenya
- 2018
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Earth Science. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2296-6463. ; 5, s. 1-26
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study presents a multidisciplinary perspective for understanding environmental change and emerging socio-ecological interactions across the Amboseli region of southwestern Kenya. We focus on late Holocene (<5,000 cal yr. BP) changes and continuities reconstructed from sedimentary, archeological, historical records and socio-ecological models. We utilize multi-disciplinary approaches to understand environmental-ecosystem-social interactions over the longue durée and use this to simulate different land use scenarios supporting conservation and sustainable livelihoods using a socio-ecological model. Today the semi-arid Amboseli landscape supports a large livestock and wildlife population, sustained by a wide variety of plants and extensive rangelands regulated by seasonal rainfall and human activity. Our data provide insight into how large-scale and long-term interactions of climate, people, livestock, wildlife and external connections have shaped the ecosystems across the Amboseli landscape. Environmental conditions were dry between ~5,000 and 2,000 cal yr. BP, followed by two wet periods at ~2,100–1,500 and 1,400–800 cal yr. BP with short dry periods; the most recent centuries were characterized by variable climate with alternative dry and wet phases with high spatial heterogeneity. Most evident in paleo and historical records is the changing woody to grass cover ratio, driven by changes in climate and fire regimes entwined with fluctuating elephant, cattle and wild ungulate populations moderated by human activity, including elephant ivory trade intensification. Archeological perspectives on the occupation of different groups (hunter-gatherers, pastoralists, and farmers) in Amboseli region and the relationships between them are discussed. An overview of the known history of humans and elephants, expanding networks of trade, and the arrival and integration of metallurgy, livestock and domesticated crops in the wider region is provided. In recent decades, increased runoff and flooding have resulted in the expansion of wetlands and a reduction of woody vegetation, compounding problems created by increased enclosure and privatization of these landscapes. However, most of the wetlands outside of the protected area are drying up because of the intensified water extraction by the communities surrounding the National Park and on the adjacent mountains areas, who have increased in numbers, become sedentary and diversified land use around the wetlands.
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| 7. |
- Githumbi, Esther, et al.
(författare)
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Pollen-Based Maps of Past Regional Vegetation Cover in Europe Over 12 Millennia-Evaluation and Potential
- 2022
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2296-701X. ; 10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Realistic and accurate reconstructions of past vegetation cover are necessary to study past environmental changes. This is important since the effects of human land-use changes (e.g. agriculture, deforestation and afforestation/reforestation) on biodiversity and climate are still under debate. Over the last decade, development, validation, and application of pollen-vegetation relationship models have made it possible to estimate plant abundance from fossil pollen data at both local and regional scales. In particular, the REVEALS model has been applied to produce datasets of past regional plant cover at 1 degrees spatial resolution at large subcontinental scales (North America, Europe, and China). However, such reconstructions are spatially discontinuous due to the discrete and irregular geographical distribution of sites (lakes and peat bogs) from which fossil pollen records have been produced. Therefore, spatial statistical models have been developed to create continuous maps of past plant cover using the REVEALS-based land cover estimates. In this paper, we present the first continuous time series of spatially complete maps of past plant cover across Europe during the Holocene (25 time windows covering the period from 11.7 k BP to present). We use a spatial-statistical model for compositional data to interpolate REVEALS-based estimates of three major land-cover types (LCTs), i.e., evergreen trees, summer-green trees and open land (grasses, herbs and low shrubs); producing spatially complete maps of the past coverage of these three LCTs. The spatial model uses four auxiliary data sets-latitude, longitude, elevation, and independent scenarios of past anthropogenic land-cover change based on per-capita land-use estimates ("standard" KK10 scenarios)-to improve model performance for areas with complex topography or few observations. We evaluate the resulting reconstructions for selected time windows using present day maps from the European Forest Institute, cross validate, and compare the results with earlier pollen-based spatially-continuous estimates for five selected time windows, i.e., 100 BP-present, 350-100 BP, 700-350 BP, 3.2-2.7 k BP, and 6.2-5.7 k BP. The evaluations suggest that the statistical model provides robust spatial reconstructions. From the maps we observe the broad change in the land-cover of Europe from dominance of naturally open land and persisting remnants of continental ice in the Early Holocene to a high fraction of forest cover in the Mid Holocene, and anthropogenic deforestation in the Late Holocene. The temporal and spatial continuity is relevant for land-use, land-cover, and climate research.
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| 8. |
- Githumbi, Esther, et al.
(författare)
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Using the Past to Inform a Sustainable Future : Palaeoecological Insights from East Africa
- 2020
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Ingår i: Africa and the sustainable development goals. - Cham : Springer. - 9783030148577 - 9783030148560 ; , s. 187-195
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An important aspect of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which aims to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5 degrees C by 2050, has been the development of monitoring and evaluation plans that integrate climate change perspectives into new policies and programs for the protection and functioning of ecological systems. These include measures that enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change. Ecosystem change and the interaction of the different drivers of change in ecosystems have been studied at different temporal and spatial scales across different disciplines. However, the use of long temporal records documenting environmental and climatic change in understanding the impacts of the interacting drivers of change and planning sustainable use of resources is relatively new. We present examples of the use of palaeoecological data from East Africa in planning for the long-term sustainable use of natural resources by providing long-term historical perspectives on human-environment-societal-wildlife interactions and engagement with the biocultural heritage and societal evaluations of these spaces to achieve an increasingly diverse set of conservation, social and economic objectives. We link the Earth system processes whose associated boundaries can be directly related to sustainable development goals in our attempt to prevent unacceptable environmental change. The realisation that humans are having a significant impact on climate and landscapes means we now need to showcase the societal relevance of palaeoecological research and utilise its output especially in our efforts to remain within a safe operating space for humanity and ecosystems.
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| 9. |
- Marchant, Rob, et al.
(författare)
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Drivers and trajectories of land cover change in East Africa : Human and environmental interactions from 6000 years ago to present
- 2018
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Ingår i: Earth-Science Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 0012-8252 .- 1872-6828. ; 178, s. 322-378
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- East African landscapes today are the result of the cumulative effects of climate and land-use change over millennial timescales. In this review, we compile archaeological and palaeoenvironmental data from East Africa to document land-cover change, and environmental, subsistence and land-use transitions, over the past 6000 years. Throughout East Africa there have been a series of relatively rapid and high-magnitude environmental shifts characterised by changing hydrological budgets during the mid- to late Holocene. For example, pronounced environmental shifts that manifested as a marked change in the rainfall amount or seasonality and subsequent hydrological budget throughout East Africa occurred around 4000, 800 and 300 radiocarbon years before present (yr BP). The past 6000 years have also seen numerous shifts in human interactions with East African ecologies. From the mid-Holocene, land use has both diversified and increased exponentially, this has been associated with the arrival of new subsistence systems, crops, migrants and technologies, all giving rise to a sequence of significant phases of land-cover change. The first large-scale human influences began to occur around 4000 yr BP, associated with the introduction of domesticated livestock and the expansion of pastoral communities. The first widespread and intensive forest clearances were associated with the arrival of iron-using early farming communities around 2500 yr BP, particularly in productive and easily-cleared mid-altitudinal areas. Extensive and pervasive land-cover change has been associated with population growth, immigration and movement of people. The expansion of trading routes between the interior and the coast, starting around 1300 years ago and intensifying in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries CE, was one such process. These caravan routes possibly acted as conduits for spreading New World crops such as maize (Zea mays), tobacco (Nicotiana spp.) and tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicum), although the processes and timings of their introductions remains poorly documented. The introduction of southeast Asian domesticates, especially banana (Musa spp.), rice (Oryza spp.), taro (Colocasia esculenta), and chicken (Gallus gallus), via transoceanic biological transfers around and across the Indian Ocean, from at least around 1300 yr BP, and potentially significantly earlier, also had profound social and ecological consequences across parts of the region. Through an interdisciplinary synthesis of information and metadatasets, we explore the different drivers and directions of changes in land-cover, and the associated environmental histories and interactions with various cultures, technologies, and subsistence strategies through time and across space in East Africa. This review suggests topics for targeted future research that focus on areas and/or time periods where our understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and land-cover change are most contentious and/or poorly resolved. The review also offers a perspective on how knowledge of regional land-use change can be used to inform and provide perspectives on contemporary issues such as climate and ecosystem change models, conservation strategies, and the achievement of nature-based solutions for development purposes.
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| 10. |
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