| 1. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 3. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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| 4. |
- Roskam, Isabelle, et al.
(författare)
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Three reasons why parental burnout is more prevalent in individualistic countries : a mediation study in 36 countries
- 2024
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Ingår i: Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology. - : Springer Nature. - 0933-7954 .- 1433-9285. ; 59, s. 681-694
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- PurposeThe prevalence of parental burnout, a condition that has severe consequences for both parents and children, varies dramatically across countries and is highest in Western countries characterized by high individualism.MethodIn this study, we examined the mediators of the relationship between individualism measured at the country level and parental burnout measured at the individual level in 36 countries (16,059 parents).ResultsThe results revealed three mediating mechanisms, that is, self-discrepancies between socially prescribed and actual parental selves, high agency and self-directed socialization goals, and low parental task sharing, by which individualism leads to an increased risk of burnout among parents.ConclusionThe results confrm that the three mediators under consideration are all involved, and that mediation was higher for self-discrepancies between socially prescribed and actual parental selves, then parental task sharing, and lastly selfdi-rected socialization goals. The results provide some important indications of how to prevent parental burnout at the societal level in Western countries.
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| 5. |
- Emami, Reza, et al.
(författare)
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A robust model-based fuzzy-logic controller for robot manipulators
- 1998
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Ingår i: 1998 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation, Leuven, Belgium, 16-20 May 1998. - Piscataway, NJ : IEEE Communications Society. ; , s. 2500-2505
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper represents a fuzzy-logic control structure, containing the fuzzy-logic model of the dynamic system and fuzzy control rules that ensure the stability and robust performance. The robust fuzzy rules are designed based on a generalized formulation of sliding mode control for a class of nonlinear multi-input multi-output systems. The proposed fuzzy-logic control scheme was applied to the trajectory control of a four degree-of-freedom robot, and compared with the high-gain PID controllers. A superior tracking performance was achieved.
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| 6. |
- Emami, Reza, et al.
(författare)
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Development of a systematic methodology of fuzzy logic modeling
- 1998
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Ingår i: IEEE transactions on fuzzy systems. - : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). - 1063-6706 .- 1941-0034. ; 6:3, s. 346-361
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper proposs a systematic methodology of fuzzy logic modeling as a generic tool for modeling of complex systems. The methodology conveys three distinct features: 1) a unified parameterized reasoning formulation; 2) an improved fuzzy clustering algorithm; and 3) an efficient strategy of selecting significant system inputs and their membership functions. The reasoning mechanism introduces four parameters whose variation provides a continuous range of inference operation. As a result, we are no longer restricted to standard extremes in any step of reasoning. Unlike traditional approach of selecting the inference mechanism a priori, the fuzzy model itself can then adjust the reasoning process by optimizing the inference parameters based on input-output data. The fuzzy rules are generated through fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering algorithm. Major bottle-necks of the algorithm are addressed and analytical solutions are suggested. Furthermore, we also address the classification process in fuzzy modelng to extend the derived fuzzy partition to the entire output space. This issue remains unattained in the current literature. In order to select suitable input variables among a finite number of candidates (unlike traditional approaches) we suggest a new strategy through which dominant input parameters are assigned in one step and no iteration process is required. Furthermore, a clustering technique called fuzzy line clustering is introduced to assign the input membership functions. In order to evaluate the proposed methodology, two examples - a nonlinear function and a gas furnace dynamic procedure - are investigated in detail. The significant improvement of the model is concluded compared to other fuzzy modeling approaches. © 1998 IEEE.
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| 7. |
- Emami, Reza, et al.
(författare)
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Fuzzy-logic dynamics modeling of robot manipulators
- 1998
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Ingår i: 1998 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation, Leuven, Belgium, 16-20 May 1998. - Piscataway, NJ : IEEE Communications Society. ; , s. 2512-2517
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A systematic approach of fuzzy-logic modeling from the system input-output data is applied to modeling dynamics behavior of a four degree-of-freedom robot manipulator. The output of the fuzzy model is compared with the experimental data and with that of an analytical simulation. The simplicity of the fuzzy model and its improved accuracy is significant.
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| 8. |
- Emami, Reza, et al.
(författare)
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Systematic design and analysis of fuzzy-logic control and application to robotics : Part II. Control
- 2000
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Ingår i: Robotics and Autonomous Systems. - 0921-8890 .- 1872-793X. ; 33:2-3, s. 89-108
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper (Part II) follows the task of systematic synthesis and analysis of fuzzy-logic control (FLC) systems introduced in Part I [M.R. Emami, et al., Robotics and Autonomous Systems 33 (2000) 65–88]. First, a generalized formulation of the sliding mode control is obtained for a class of nonlinear multi-input–multi-output systems. This formulation has two distinguishing features that are necessary for the formulation of the proposed approach: (i) it is applicable to “black box” systems with no need to identify the internal parameters or to assume a specific structure; (ii) it is possible to design the robust controller for each system state independently while the stability and robustness of the entire system is guaranteed. The robust fuzzy control rules are designed based on the generalized formulation to guarantee the stability and satisfactory system performance. The proposed FLC has been applied to trajectory control of the four degree-of-freedom IRIS arm (Emami et al., 2000), and was compared with high-gain PID controllers. A superior tracking performance was achieved.
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| 9. |
- Emami, Reza, et al.
(författare)
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Systematic design and analysis of fuzzy-logic control and application to robotics : Part 1. Modeling
- 2000
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Ingår i: Robotics and Autonomous Systems. - 0921-8890 .- 1872-793X. ; 33:2-3, s. 65-88
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A systematic methodology for synthesis and analysis of fuzzy-logic controllers is proposed in this paper (Part I) and its follow up (Part II) [M.R. Emami, et al., Robotics and Autonomous Systems 33 (2000) 89–108]. A robust model-based control structure is suggested that includes a fuzzy-logic inverse dynamics model and several robust fuzzy control rules. The model encapsulates the knowledge of the system dynamics in the form of IF–THEN rules. The paper focuses on how to obtain this knowledge systematically from the input–output data of a complex system; one that is ill-defined or contains complicated phenomena that are difficult to interpret analytically. All practical steps, from data acquisition to model validation, are illustrated using a four degree-of-freedom robot manipulator. Comparing the results with those of a complete analytical model and a heuristic fuzzy modeling technique illustrates the strength of the proposed methodology in terms of capturing effects that are difficult to model. In the follow-up paper, this model is used in the proposed control structure.
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| 10. |
- Goldenberg, Andrew A., et al.
(författare)
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Fuzzy-logic control of dynamic systems : From modeling to design
- 2000
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Ingår i: Engineering applications of artificial intelligence. - 0952-1976 .- 1873-6769. ; 13:1, s. 47-69
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A systematic methodology for the synthesis and analysis of fuzzy-logic controllers for multi-input multi-output nonlinear dynamic systems is proposed in this paper. A robust model-based control structure is suggested that includes the fuzzy-logic dynamics model of the system and several robust fuzzy control rules. The fuzzy-logic model is systematically constructed from the input-output data, and the robust control rules are designed using the sliding-mode control theory. The stability and completeness of the control structure is guaranteed, based on a generalized formulation of the sliding-mode control developed in this paper. The proposed fuzzy-logic control scheme has been applied to trajectory control of a four-degree-of-freedom robot manipulator, and was compared with high-gain PID controllers. Superior tracking performance was achieved.
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