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- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 6. |
- Bronge, Mattias, et al.
(författare)
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Identification of four novel T cell autoantigens and personal autoreactive profiles in multiple sclerosis
- 2022
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Ingår i: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 8:17
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory disease of the central nervous system (CNS), in which pathological T cells, likely autoimmune, play a key role. Despite its central importance, the autoantigen repertoire remains largely uncharacterized. Using a novel in vitro antigen delivery method combined with the Human Protein Atlas library, we screened for T cell autoreactivity against 63 CNS-expressed proteins. We identified four previously unreported autoantigens in MS: fatty acid-binding protein 7, prokineticin-2, reticulon-3, and synaptosomal-associated protein 91, which were verified to induce interferon-gamma responses in MS in two cohorts. Autoreactive profiles were heterogeneous, and reactivity to several autoantigens was MS-selective. Autoreactive T cells were predominantly CD4(+) and human leukocyte antigen-DR restricted. Mouse immunization induced antigen-specific responses and CNS leukocyte infiltration. This represents one of the largest systematic efforts to date in the search for MS autoantigens, demonstrates the heterogeneity of autoreactive profiles, and highlights promising targets for future diagnostic tools and immunomodulatory therapies in MS.
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| 7. |
- Gerhards, R, et al.
(författare)
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Oligodendrocyte myelin glycoprotein as a novel target for pathogenic autoimmunity in the CNS
- 2020
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Ingår i: Acta neuropathologica communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2051-5960. ; 8:1, s. 207-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Autoimmune disorders of the central nervous system (CNS) comprise a broad spectrum of clinical entities. The stratification of patients based on the recognized autoantigen is of great importance for therapy optimization and for concepts of pathogenicity, but for most of these patients, the actual target of their autoimmune response is unknown. Here we investigated oligodendrocyte myelin glycoprotein (OMGP) as autoimmune target, because OMGP is expressed specifically in the CNS and there on oligodendrocytes and neurons. Using a stringent cell-based assay, we detected autoantibodies to OMGP in serum of 8/352 patients with multiple sclerosis, 1/28 children with acute disseminated encephalomyelitis and unexpectedly, also in one patient with psychosis, but in none of 114 healthy controls. Since OMGP is GPI-anchored, we validated its recognition also in GPI-anchored form. The autoantibodies to OMGP were largely IgG1 with a contribution of IgG4, indicating cognate T cell help. We found high levels of soluble OMGP in human spinal fluid, presumably due to shedding of the GPI-linked OMGP. Analyzing the pathogenic relevance of autoimmunity to OMGP in an animal model, we found that OMGP-specific T cells induce a novel type of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis dominated by meningitis above the cortical convexities. This unusual localization may be directed by intrathecal uptake and presentation of OMGP by meningeal phagocytes. Together, OMGP-directed autoimmunity provides a new element of heterogeneity, helping to improve the stratification of patients for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes.
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- Gronlund, B, et al.
(författare)
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Sequential topotecan and oral etoposide in recurrent ovarian carcinoma pretreated with platinum-taxane - Results from a multicenter phase I/II study
- 2005
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Ingår i: Cancer. - : Wiley. - 1097-0142 .- 0008-543X. ; 103:7, s. 1388-1396
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND. The objectives of this study were to determine the maximum tolerable dose (MTD), toxicity, efficacy, and feasibility of a sequential regimen of fixed-dose topotecan (1.00 mg/m(2) on Days 1-5) and increasing doses of oral etoposide (50 mg, 75 mg, and 100 mg on Days 6-12 or Days 6-19) in patients with recurrent ovarian carcinoma. METHODS. This multicenter, open-label study was planned as a Phase I-II study that included patients with epithelial ovarian carcinoma who failed or who developed recurrent disease < 12 months after the end of platinum and taxane-containing chemotherapy. Dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) was defined as follows: Grade 4 neutropenia for > 1 week, or neutropenic fever 38.5 degrees C for > 24 hours/sepsis, or Grade 4 thrombocytopenia for > 1 week, or thrombocytopenia with bleeding, or Grade 3-4 nonhematologic toxicity. RESULTS. The MTD, as defined in the protocol, could not be settled because of unpredictable toxicity, because DLT was found at all dose levels except the starting dose level. In 28 patients (Phase I), 155 cycles were evaluable for toxicity. The main DLT was neutropenia Grade 4 for > 1 week or neutropenic fever/sepsis. Overall, neutropenia Grade 4 that lasted > 1 week and sepsis were noticed in 3% and 2% of cycles, respectively. Because no MTD was reached, the planned Phase II trial was not initiated. However, the patients from Phase I were followed until they developed progressive disease and, among them, 9 patients (32%) obtained an objective response (according to Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) or CA125 response criteria). CONCLUSIONS. Combined topotecan and oral etoposide was inappropriate in patients with recurrent ovarian carcinoma because of unpredictable hematologic toxicity. However, the high objective response rate highlighted the potential additive effect of topoisomerase I and II inhibitors.
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