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Sökning: WFRF:(Gross Theresa E.)

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1.
  • Breznau, Nate, et al. (författare)
  • Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:44
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This study explores how researchers analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each teams workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
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2.
  • Chaitanya, Lakshmi, et al. (författare)
  • Collaborative EDNAP exercise on the IrisPlex system for DNA based prediction of human eye colour
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Forensic Science International. - : Elsevier. - 1872-4973 .- 1878-0326. ; 11, s. 241-251
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The IrisPlex system is a DNA-based test system for the prediction of human eye colour from biological samples and consists of a single forensically validated multiplex genotyping assay together with a statistical prediction model that is based on genotypes and phenotypes from thousands of individuals. IrisPlex predicts blue and brown human eye colour with, on average, >94% precision accuracy using six of the currently most eye colour informative single nucleotide polymorphisms (HERC2 rs12913832, OCA2 rs1800407, SLC24A4 rs12896399, SLC45A2 (MATP) rs16891982, TYR rs1393350, and IRF4 rs12203592) according to a previous study, while the accuracy in predicting non-blue and non-brown eye colours is considerably lower. In an effort to vigorously assess the IrisPlex system at the international level, testing was performed by 21 laboratories in the context of a collaborative exercise divided into three tasks and organised by the European DNA Profiling (EDNAP) Group of the International Society of Forensic Genetics (ISFG). Task 1 involved the assessment of 10 blood and saliva samples provided on FTA cards by the organising laboratory together with eye colour phenotypes; 99.4% of the genotypes were correctly reported and 99% of the eye colour phenotypes were correctly predicted. Task 2 involved the assessment of 5 DNA samples extracted by the host laboratory from simulated casework samples, artificially degraded, and provided to the participants in varying DNA concentrations. For this task, 98.7% of the genotypes were correctly determined and 96.2% of eye colour phenotypes were correctly inferred. For Tasks 1 and 2 together, 99.2% (1875) of the 1890 genotypes were correctly generated and of the 15 (0.8%) incorrect genotype calls, only 2 (0.1%) resulted in incorrect eye colour phenotypes. The voluntary Task 3 involved participants choosing their own test subjects for IrisPlex genotyping and eye colour phenotype inference, while eye photographs were provided to the organising laboratory and judged; 96% of the eye colour phenotypes were inferred correctly across 100 samples and 19 laboratories. The high success rates in genotyping and eye colour phenotyping clearly demonstrate the reproducibility and the robustness of the IrisPlex assay as well as the accuracy of the IrisPlex model to predict blue and brown eye colour from DNA. Additionally, this study demonstrates the ease with which the IrisPlex system is implementable and applicable across forensic laboratories around the world with varying pre-existing experiences.
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