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- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Guo, Jingwen, et al.
(author)
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Modeling delay relations based on mining historical train monitoring data: a Chinese railway case
- 2015
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In: Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Railway Operations Modelling and Analysis - RailTokyo2015. - Tokyo.
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Development of high-speed railway systems greatly shortens people’s travel time in China. However, the reliability of travel time still cannot meet expectations of passengers. In order to reduce delays and delay propagation, predictive railway traffic management is attracting more and more attention from researchers in recent years. It is widely accepted that precise prediction of future train events is one of the keys for implementing predictive traffic management and knowing delay characteristics (e.g. probability density distributions) is the basis for accurate system status prediction. In this paper, we aim to provide a case study about delay characteristics of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway line in China. We first derive probabilistic distribution functions of both train arrival and departure delays at individual station. Then, we investigate the relations of delays along this rail line by Chi-square independence test and Pearson correlation test (if necessary). In particular, correlation coefficients are used to describe relations of delays. In this part, we also compare the impact of realized running times on the final delay with that of dwell time. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to predict final arrival delay using the delay relations we get.
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| 3. |
- Huang, Dan, et al.
(author)
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Ideal half-filled intermediate band position in CuGaS 2 generated by Sb-related defect complex: A first-principles study
- 2019
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In: Applied Physics Express. - : IOP Publishing. - 1882-0786 .- 1882-0778. ; 12:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Cu-based chalcopyrite compounds have attracted much attention for photovoltaic application, while some of them (like CuGaS 2 ) have energy gaps greater than the optimal value. An isolated and half-filled intermediate band located at the lower part of its original band gap exhibits in CuGaS 2 with (Sb Ga + Zn Ga ) or (Sb Ga + V Cu ) defect complex, in line with the intrinsic p-type conductivity of the host, revealed from our first-principles calculations. Subsequently, the absorption coefficients of CuGaS 2 can cover the full solar light spectrum efficiently. Based on the defect formation energy calculations, however, these defect complexes are hard to reach a large concentration under equilibrium condition. Nevertheless, non-equilibrium growth methods are suggested to prepare samples inheriting the excellent adsorption coefficients.
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| 4. |
- Yu, Wenjin, et al.
(author)
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Deep Learning-Based Classification of Cancer Cell in Leptomeningeal Metastasis on Cytomorphologic Features of Cerebrospinal Fluid
- 2022
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In: Frontiers in Oncology. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2234-943X. ; 12, s. 1-11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: It is a critical challenge to diagnose leptomeningeal metastasis (LM), given its technical difficulty and the lack of typical symptoms. The existing gold standard of diagnosing LM is to use positive cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) cytology, which consumes significantly more time to classify cells under a microscope.Objective: This study aims to establish a deep learning model to classify cancer cells in CSF, thus facilitating doctors to achieve an accurate and fast diagnosis of LM in an early stage.Method: The cerebrospinal fluid laboratory of Xijing Hospital provides 53,255 cells from 90 LM patients in the research. We used two deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) models to classify cells in the CSF. A five-way cell classification model (CNN1) consists of lymphocytes, monocytes, neutrophils, erythrocytes, and cancer cells. A four-way cancer cell classification model (CNN2) consists of lung cancer cells, gastric cancer cells, breast cancer cells, and pancreatic cancer cells. Here, the CNN models were constructed by Resnet-inception-V2. We evaluated the performance of the proposed models on two external datasets and compared them with the results from 42 doctors of various levels of experience in the human-machine tests. Furthermore, we develop a computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) software to generate cytology diagnosis reports in the research rapidly.Results: With respect to the validation set, the mean average precision (mAP) of CNN1 is over 95% and that of CNN2 is close to 80%. Hence, the proposed deep learning model effectively classifies cells in CSF to facilitate the screening of cancer cells. In the human-machine tests, the accuracy of CNN1 is similar to the results from experts, with higher accuracy than doctors in other levels. Moreover, the overall accuracy of CNN2 is 10% higher than that of experts, with a time consumption of only one-third of that consumed by an expert. Using the CAD software saves 90% working time of cytologists.Conclusion: A deep learning method has been developed to assist the LM diagnosis with high accuracy and low time consumption effectively. Thanks to labeled data and step-by-step training, our proposed method can successfully classify cancer cells in the CSF to assist LM diagnosis early. In addition, this unique research can predict cancer’s primary source of LM, which relies on cytomorphologic features without immunohistochemistry. Our results show that deep learning can be widely used in medical images to classify cerebrospinal fluid cells. For complex cancer classification tasks, the accuracy of the proposed method is significantly higher than that of specialist doctors, and its performance is better than that of junior doctors and interns. The application of CNNs and CAD software may ultimately aid in expediting the diagnosis and overcoming the shortage of experienced cytologists, thereby facilitating earlier treatment and improving the prognosis of LM.
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