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- Kanai, M, et al.
(författare)
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- 2023
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swepub:Mat__t
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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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- Azevedo, Flavio, et al.
(författare)
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Social and moral psychology of COVID-19 across 69 countries
- 2023
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : NATURE PORTFOLIO. - 2052-4463. ; 10:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all domains of human life, including the economic and social fabric of societies. One of the central strategies for managing public health throughout the pandemic has been through persuasive messaging and collective behaviour change. To help scholars better understand the social and moral psychology behind public health behaviour, we present a dataset comprising of 51,404 individuals from 69 countries. This dataset was collected for the International Collaboration on Social & Moral Psychology of COVID-19 project (ICSMP COVID-19). This social science survey invited participants around the world to complete a series of moral and psychological measures and public health attitudes about COVID-19 during an early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (between April and June 2020). The survey included seven broad categories of questions: COVID-19 beliefs and compliance behaviours; identity and social attitudes; ideology; health and well-being; moral beliefs and motivation; personality traits; and demographic variables. We report both raw and cleaned data, along with all survey materials, data visualisations, and psychometric evaluations of key variables.
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- Van Bavel, Jay J., et al.
(författare)
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National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Nature Portfolio. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding collective behaviour is an important aspect of managing the pandemic response. Here the authors show in a large global study that participants that reported identifying more strongly with their nation reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies in the context of the pandemic. Changing collective behaviour and supporting non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important component in mitigating virus transmission during a pandemic. In a large international collaboration (Study 1, N = 49,968 across 67 countries), we investigated self-reported factors associated with public health behaviours (e.g., spatial distancing and stricter hygiene) and endorsed public policy interventions (e.g., closing bars and restaurants) during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic (April-May 2020). Respondents who reported identifying more strongly with their nation consistently reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies. Results were similar for representative and non-representative national samples. Study 2 (N = 42 countries) conceptually replicated the central finding using aggregate indices of national identity (obtained using the World Values Survey) and a measure of actual behaviour change during the pandemic (obtained from Google mobility reports). Higher levels of national identification prior to the pandemic predicted lower mobility during the early stage of the pandemic (r = -0.40). We discuss the potential implications of links between national identity, leadership, and public health for managing COVID-19 and future pandemics.
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- Allwood, Jens, et al.
(författare)
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Construction and annotation of a corpus of contemporary Nepali
- 2008
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Ingår i: Corpora. - : Edinburgh University Press. - 1749-5032 .- 1755-1676. ; 3:2, s. 213-225
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we describe the construction of the 14-million-word Nepali National Corpus (NNC). This corpus includes both spoken and written data, the latter incorporating a Nepali match for FLOB and a broader collection of text. Additional resources within the NNC include parallel data (English–Nepali and Nepali–English) and a speech corpus. The NNC is encoded as Unicode text and marked up in CES-compatible XML. The whole corpus is also annotated with part-of-speech tags. We describe the process of devising a tagset and retraining tagger software for the Nepali language, for which there were no existing corpus resources. Finally, we explore some present and future applications of the corpus, including lexicography, NLP, and grammatical research.
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| 9. |
- Gurung, SC, et al.
(författare)
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Comparative Yield of Tuberculosis during Active Case Finding Using GeneXpert or Smear Microscopy for Diagnostic Testing in Nepal: A Cross-Sectional Study
- 2021
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Ingår i: Tropical medicine and infectious disease. - : MDPI AG. - 2414-6366. ; 6:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study compared the yield of tuberculosis (TB) active case finding (ACF) interventions applied under TB REACH funding. Between June 2017 to November 2018, Birat Nepal Medical Trust identified presumptive cases using simple verbal screening from three interventions: door-to-door screening of social contacts of known index cases, TB camps in remote areas, and screening for hospital out-patient department (OPD) attendees. Symptomatic individuals were then tested using smear microscopy or GeneXpert MTB/RIF as first diagnostic test. Yield rates were compared for each intervention and diagnostic method. We evaluated additional cases notified from ACF interventions by comparing case notifications of the intervention and control districts using standard TB REACH methodology. The project identified 1092 TB cases. The highest yield was obtained from OPD screening at hospitals (n = 566/1092; 52%). The proportion of positive tests using GeneXpert (5.5%, n = 859/15,637) was significantly higher than from microscopy testing 2% (n = 120/6309). (OR = 1.4; 95%CI = 1.12–1.72; p = 0.0026). The project achieved 29% additionality in case notifications in the intervention districts demonstrating that GeneXpert achieved substantially higher case-finding yields. Therefore, to increase national case notification for TB, Nepal should integrate OPD screening using GeneXpert testing in every district hospital and scale up of community-based ACF of TB patient contacts nationally.
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| 10. |
- Gurung, SC, et al.
(författare)
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The role of active case finding in reducing patient incurred catastrophic costs for tuberculosis in Nepal
- 2019
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Ingår i: Infectious diseases of poverty. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2049-9957. ; 8:1, s. 99-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundThe World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy has established a milestone to reduce the number of tuberculosis (TB)- affected households facing catastrophic costs to zero by 2020. The role of active case finding (ACF) in reducing patient costs has not been determined globally. This study therefore aimed to compare costs incurred by TB patients diagnosed through ACF and passive case finding (PCF), and to determine the prevalence and intensity of patient-incurred catastrophic costs in Nepal.MethodsThe study was conducted in two districts of Nepal: Bardiya and Pyuthan (Province No. 5) between June and August 2018. One hundred patients were included in this study in a 1:1 ratio (PCF: ACF, 25 consecutive ACF and 25 consecutive PCF patients in each district). The WHO TB patient costing tool was applied to collect information from patients or a member of their family regarding indirect and direct medical and non-medical costs. Catastrophic costs were calculated based on the proportion of patients with total costs exceeding 20% of their annual household income.The intensity of catastrophic costs was calculated using the positive overshoot method. The chi-square and Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney tests were used to compare proportions and costs. Meanwhile, the Mantel Haenszel test was performed to assess the association between catastrophic costs and type of diagnosis.ResultsNinety-nine patients were interviewed (50 ACF and 49 PCF). Patients diagnosed through ACF incurred lower costs during the pre-treatment period (direct medical: USD 14 vs USD 32,P = 0.001; direct non-medical: USD 3 vs USD 10,P = 0.004; indirect, time loss: USD 4 vs USD 13,P < 0.001). The cost of the pre-treatment and intensive phases combined was also lower for direct medical (USD 15 vs USD 34,P = 0.002) and non-medical (USD 30 vs USD 54,P = 0.022) costs among ACF patients. The prevalence of catastrophic direct costs was lower for ACF patients for all thresholds. A lower intensity of catastrophic costs was also documented for ACF patients, although the difference was not statistically significant.ConclusionsACF can reduce patient-incurred costs substantially, contributing to the End TB Strategy target. Other synergistic policies, such as social protection, will also need to be implemented to reduce catastrophic costs to zero among TB-affected households.
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