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- Kanai, M, et al.
(författare)
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- 2023
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swepub:Mat__t
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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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- Azevedo, Flavio, et al.
(författare)
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Social and moral psychology of COVID-19 across 69 countries
- 2023
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : NATURE PORTFOLIO. - 2052-4463. ; 10:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all domains of human life, including the economic and social fabric of societies. One of the central strategies for managing public health throughout the pandemic has been through persuasive messaging and collective behaviour change. To help scholars better understand the social and moral psychology behind public health behaviour, we present a dataset comprising of 51,404 individuals from 69 countries. This dataset was collected for the International Collaboration on Social & Moral Psychology of COVID-19 project (ICSMP COVID-19). This social science survey invited participants around the world to complete a series of moral and psychological measures and public health attitudes about COVID-19 during an early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (between April and June 2020). The survey included seven broad categories of questions: COVID-19 beliefs and compliance behaviours; identity and social attitudes; ideology; health and well-being; moral beliefs and motivation; personality traits; and demographic variables. We report both raw and cleaned data, along with all survey materials, data visualisations, and psychometric evaluations of key variables.
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- Shrestha, D. P., et al.
(författare)
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Development of skin disease disability index to assess the dermatologic burden in Nepal
- 2013
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Ingår i: Institute of Medicine. Journal. - Kathmandu, Nepal : Institute of Medicine. - 1993-2979. ; 35:2, s. 24-29
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Skin disease is one of the leading cause of morbidity worldwide. Most instruments measuring the impact of skin disease on quality of life are developed in the west and not applicable to the socio-cultural situation in Nepal. The aim of the study was to develop and validate a questionnaire to measure quality of life impairment due to skin disease in Nepal.Methods: Different aspects of quality of life impairment were identiÞ ed from 35 in-depth interviews and two focus group discussions, with villagers with various skin diseases. Based on this information, 10 questions scoring the influence of skin diseases on quality of life – Skin Disease Disability Index (SDDI) – was developed. This instrument was tested and validated in 212 villagers with skin disease and in 100 healthy villagers.Results: The maximum total Skin Disease Disability Index score was 36. There was a wide variation in total Skin Disease Disability Index score between individuals with skin disease (range 1-33) with a mean score of 13.2, while in controls the mean total score was 1 (p<0.001). Thus, the Skin Disease Disability Index clearly discriminates between these two groups. The difference in mean score for single questions between patients and controls was also highly significant (p<0.001).Conclusions: The questionnaire clearly covered all aspects of quality of life related to skin disease and was, simple, robust, easy to use and well accepted by the selected population. The Skin Disease Disability Index was reliable in the overall score as well as in individual questions.
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- Shrestha, D.P., et al.
(författare)
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Mobile teledermatology for rural Nepal: Dermatologic care using mobile phone in a primary health care centre
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Institute of Medicine. - Nepal : Institute of Medicine. - 1993-2979. ; 38:1, s. 7-10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Skin diseases are among the five most common health problems in Nepal. We have now tested the validity of mobile teledermatology with mobile phones to find a safe and easy way of diagnosis and treatment of skin diseases for the most vulnerable people in remote areas without access to derma tologists. Methods: A medical officer at a primary health care centre examined the patient, obtained information of the patient and the skin disease, took photographs of the skin lesions. Then he transmitted all these data via Viber to a dermatologist in Kathmmandu, who in real time formulated diagnosis and treatment and sent it via Viber to the medical officer. Subsequently the patient was examined face to face by a blinded dermatologist at the same primary health care centre. The time taken for each modality of consultation was recorded .A third dermatologist analysed and compared the diagnoses formulated during telederma tology and the face to face consultations. Results: Altogether 107 skin diseases were diagnosed in 101 patients. There was an overall concordance of 88% between the diagnoses of skin diseases by mobile teledermatology and face to face consultations (Cohen k coefficient 0.85). The average face to face consultation time was 5 minutes, while it was 7 min utes more for teleconsultation. More than 75% of the photos were of good quality. Conclusions: Mobile teledermatology using smartphones is a reliable, useful, cost effective method to provide expertise for improving dermatologic care for the needy population in rural and remote parts of Nepal.
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| 8. |
- Shrestha, D. P., et al.
(författare)
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Prevalence of skin diseases and impact on quality of life in hilly region of Nepal
- 2012
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Ingår i: Institute of Medicine. Journal. - Kathmandu, Nepal : Institute of Medicine. - 1993-2979. ; 34:3, s. 44-49
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Skin diseases (SDs) are one of the most common health problems in Nepal. The objectives of this study are to determine the prevalence of SDs and impact on quality of life (QoL) in a rural community in Nepal.Methods: A house-to-house survey was conducted in a community with 3,207 inhabitants, to obtain socio-demographic data and identify individuals with SDs. Free examination and treatment was offered at 4 health camps. Individuals with long-standing SDs were interviewed using the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI).Results: Of 735 individuals attending the health camps, 645 (mean age 24.9 years, range 0.5-90) had one or more SDs. The overall prevalence of SDs was 20.1% (males 18.1%, females 22.5% and children 28.2%). The most common SD categories were eczemas (12.2%), pigment disorders (4.1%), acne (2.7%), urticaria (2.4%) and moles and lumps (1.6%). In the Nepalese culture, the DLQI question on sexuality was too direct so only 9/10 questions were used. In the 75 patients who were interviewed, the mean DLQI score was 10.7 (range 7-19), indicating a large impact on QoL.Conclusions: This population-based study shows that SDs were very common in a rural community in Nepal. The five most common SD categories comprise 77% of all SDs. Targeted training should enable health-care workers to prevent, accurately diagnose and manage these problems on site. An appropriate instrument to measure QoL adjusted to the socio-cultural norms of Nepal has to be developed.
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- Van Bavel, Jay J., et al.
(författare)
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National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Nature Portfolio. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding collective behaviour is an important aspect of managing the pandemic response. Here the authors show in a large global study that participants that reported identifying more strongly with their nation reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies in the context of the pandemic. Changing collective behaviour and supporting non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important component in mitigating virus transmission during a pandemic. In a large international collaboration (Study 1, N = 49,968 across 67 countries), we investigated self-reported factors associated with public health behaviours (e.g., spatial distancing and stricter hygiene) and endorsed public policy interventions (e.g., closing bars and restaurants) during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic (April-May 2020). Respondents who reported identifying more strongly with their nation consistently reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies. Results were similar for representative and non-representative national samples. Study 2 (N = 42 countries) conceptually replicated the central finding using aggregate indices of national identity (obtained using the World Values Survey) and a measure of actual behaviour change during the pandemic (obtained from Google mobility reports). Higher levels of national identification prior to the pandemic predicted lower mobility during the early stage of the pandemic (r = -0.40). We discuss the potential implications of links between national identity, leadership, and public health for managing COVID-19 and future pandemics.
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