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- Kanai, M, et al.
(författare)
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- 2023
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 5. |
- Azevedo, Flavio, et al.
(författare)
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Social and moral psychology of COVID-19 across 69 countries
- 2023
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Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : NATURE PORTFOLIO. - 2052-4463. ; 10:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all domains of human life, including the economic and social fabric of societies. One of the central strategies for managing public health throughout the pandemic has been through persuasive messaging and collective behaviour change. To help scholars better understand the social and moral psychology behind public health behaviour, we present a dataset comprising of 51,404 individuals from 69 countries. This dataset was collected for the International Collaboration on Social & Moral Psychology of COVID-19 project (ICSMP COVID-19). This social science survey invited participants around the world to complete a series of moral and psychological measures and public health attitudes about COVID-19 during an early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (between April and June 2020). The survey included seven broad categories of questions: COVID-19 beliefs and compliance behaviours; identity and social attitudes; ideology; health and well-being; moral beliefs and motivation; personality traits; and demographic variables. We report both raw and cleaned data, along with all survey materials, data visualisations, and psychometric evaluations of key variables.
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| 6. |
- Van Bavel, Jay J., et al.
(författare)
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National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Nature Portfolio. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding collective behaviour is an important aspect of managing the pandemic response. Here the authors show in a large global study that participants that reported identifying more strongly with their nation reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies in the context of the pandemic. Changing collective behaviour and supporting non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important component in mitigating virus transmission during a pandemic. In a large international collaboration (Study 1, N = 49,968 across 67 countries), we investigated self-reported factors associated with public health behaviours (e.g., spatial distancing and stricter hygiene) and endorsed public policy interventions (e.g., closing bars and restaurants) during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic (April-May 2020). Respondents who reported identifying more strongly with their nation consistently reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies. Results were similar for representative and non-representative national samples. Study 2 (N = 42 countries) conceptually replicated the central finding using aggregate indices of national identity (obtained using the World Values Survey) and a measure of actual behaviour change during the pandemic (obtained from Google mobility reports). Higher levels of national identification prior to the pandemic predicted lower mobility during the early stage of the pandemic (r = -0.40). We discuss the potential implications of links between national identity, leadership, and public health for managing COVID-19 and future pandemics.
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| 7. |
- Gurung, Iman S., et al.
(författare)
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Deletion of the metabolic transcriptional coactivator PGC1β induces cardiac arrhythmia
- 2011
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Ingår i: Cardiovascular Research. - : Oxford University Press. - 0008-6363 .- 1755-3245. ; 92:1, s. 29-38
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AIMS: Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ coactivators PGC1α and PGC1β modulate mitochondrial biogenesis and energy homeostasis. The function of these transcriptional coactivators is impaired in obesity, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes. We searched for transcriptomic, lipidomic, and electrophysiological alterations in PGC1β(-/-) hearts potentially associated with increased arrhythmic risk in metabolic diseases.METHODS AND RESULTS: Microarray analysis in mouse PGC1β(-/-) hearts confirmed down-regulation of genes related to oxidative phosphorylation and the electron transport chain and up-regulation of hypertrophy- and hypoxia-related genes. Lipidomic analysis showed increased levels of the pro-arrhythmic and pro-inflammatory lipid, lysophosphatidylcholine. PGC1β(-/-) mouse electrocardiograms showed irregular heartbeats and an increased incidence of polymorphic ventricular tachycardia following isoprenaline infusion. Langendorff-perfused PGC1β(-/-) hearts showed action potential alternans, early after-depolarizations, and ventricular tachycardia. PGC1β(-/-) ventricular myocytes showed oscillatory resting potentials, action potentials with early and delayed after-depolarizations, and burst firing during sustained current injection. They showed abnormal diastolic Ca(2+) transients, whose amplitude and frequency were increased by isoprenaline, and Ca(2+) currents with negatively shifted inactivation characteristics, with increased window currents despite unaltered levels of CACNA1C RNA transcripts. Inwardly and outward rectifying K(+) currents were all increased. Quantitiative RT-PCR demonstrated increased SCN5A, KCNA5, RYR2, and Ca(2+)-calmodulin dependent protein kinase II expression.CONCLUSION: PGC1β(-/-) hearts showed a lysophospholipid-induced cardiac lipotoxicity and impaired bioenergetics accompanied by an ion channel remodelling and altered Ca(2+) homeostasis, converging to produce a ventricular arrhythmic phenotype particularly during adrenergic stress. This could contribute to the increased cardiac mortality associated with both metabolic and cardiac disease attributable to lysophospholipid accumulation.
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| 8. |
- Song, Tianyan, et al.
(författare)
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Vibrio cholerae Utilizes Direct sRNA Regulation in Expression of a Biofilm Matrix Protein
- 2014
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : PLOS. - 1932-6203. ; 9:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Vibrio cholerae biofilms contain exopolysaccharide and three matrix proteins RbmA, RbmC and Bap1. While much is known about exopolysaccharide regulation, little is known about the mechanisms by which the matrix protein components of biofilms are regulated. VrrA is a conserved, 140-nt sRNA of V. cholerae, whose expression is controlled by sigma factor sigma(E). In this study, we demonstrate that VrrA negatively regulates rbmC translation by pairing to the 5' untranslated region of the rbmC transcript and that this regulation is not stringently dependent on the RNA chaperone protein Hfq. These results point to VrrA as a molecular link between the sigma(E)-regulon and biofilm formation in V. cholerae. In addition, VrrA represents the first example of direct regulation of sRNA on biofilm matrix component, by-passing global master regulators.
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