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- Kanai, M, et al.
(författare)
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- 2023
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swepub:Mat__t
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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 5. |
- Geenes, V., et al.
(författare)
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The Reversed Feto-Maternal Bile Acid Gradient in Intrahepatic Cholestasis of Pregnancy Is Corrected by Ursodeoxycholic Acid
- 2014
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Ingår i: Plos One. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 9:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP) is a pregnancy-specific liver disorder associated with an increased risk of adverse fetal outcomes. It is characterised by raised maternal serum bile acids, which are believed to cause the adverse outcomes. ICP is commonly treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). This study aimed to determine the fetal and maternal bile acid profiles in normal and ICP pregnancies, and to examine the effect of UDCA treatment. Matched maternal and umbilical cord serum samples were collected from untreated ICP (n = 18), UDCA-treated ICP (n = 46) and uncomplicated pregnancy (n = 15) cases at the time of delivery. Nineteen individual bile acids were measured using HPLC-MS/MS. Maternal and fetal serum bile acids are significantly raised in ICP compared with normal pregnancy (p = <0.0001 and <0.05, respectively), predominantly due to increased levels of conjugated cholic and chenodeoxycholic acid. There are no differences between the umbilical cord artery and cord vein levels of the major bile acid species. The feto-maternal gradient of bile acids is reversed in ICP. Treatment with UDCA significantly reduces serum bile acids in the maternal compartment (p = <0.0001), thereby reducing the feto-maternal transplacental gradient. UDCA-treatment does not cause a clinically important increase in lithocholic acid (LCA) concentrations. ICP is associated with significant quantitative and qualitative changes in the maternal and fetal bile acid pools. Treatment with UDCA reduces the level of bile acids in both compartments and reverses the qualitative changes. We have not found evidence to support the suggestion that UDCA treatment increases fetal LCA concentrations to deleterious levels.
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| 9. |
- Giorgianni, Flavio, et al.
(författare)
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Melting of magnetic order in NaOsO3 by femtosecond laser pulses
- 2022
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Ingår i: Physical Review B. - : American Physical Society. - 2469-9950 .- 2469-9969. ; 105:15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- NaOsO3 has recently attracted significant attention for the strong coupling between its electronic band structure and magnetic ordering. Here, we used time-resolved magnetic x-ray diffraction to determine the timescale of the photoinduced antiferromagnetic dynamics in NaOsO3. Our measurements are consistent with a sub-100 fs melting of the antiferromagnetic long-range order that occurs significantly faster than the lattice dynamics as monitored by the transient change in intensity of selected Bragg structural reflections, which instead show a decrease of intensity on a timescale of several ps.
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