| 1. |
- Eriksson Hägg, Hanna, et al.
(författare)
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Future nutrient load scenarios for the Baltic Sea due to climate and lifestyle changes
- 2014
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 43:3, s. 337--351
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Eriksson Hägg, Hanna, 1975-
(författare)
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Nitrogen land-sea fluxes in the Baltic Sea catchment : Empirical relationships and budgets
- 2010
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this thesis empirical relationships and modeling tools are used to describe the relationship between human activities and meso- and large scale riverine N fluxes from land to sea. On a large scale Paper I showed that by only having knowledge about human population size and runoff one can estimate the riverine export of DIN (r2= 0.76). In Paper II we included two other important anthropogenic N inputs, i.e. atmospheric deposition and primary emission (PE) from animals. In most of the catchments the PE from animals were larger than the PE from humans. Hence, development of livestock is important and increased animal protein consumption by humans might increase the riverine N export. Scenario analysis (Paper II) show that climate change is expected to both decrease and increase the riverine N export depending on which part of the catchment is modeled. In the southern and eastern parts of the Baltic Sea catchment there is large potential for N reductions from point sources (Papers III & V). The diffuse sources are more difficult to decrease and a reduction of mineral fertilizer does not always lead to reduced N loadings because the agricultural systems can buffer even a slight surplus (Paper III). There is inertia in the catchments which can be seen in for example in the northern part of the catchment. Here atmospheric N deposition is almost as high as in the southern part but the nitrogen flux from these rivers is not elevated. These northern river catchments have N exports of the same magnitude as the natural background (Paper IV), indicating that the atmospheric N deposition is retained in the system and probably taken up by N limited boreal forests. However, important reductions can be achieved in the agricultural sector by detailed management of the planted land and animal manure. The highest sensitivity is in catchments with high animal density and high specific discharge, primarily draining to Kattegat and Danish Straits (Paper II & IV).
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| 4. |
- Eriksson Hägg, Hanna, 1975-, et al.
(författare)
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Riverine nitrogen export in Swedish catchments dominated by atmospheric inputs
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The net anthropogenic nitrogen input (NANI) approach addressing N loading from agricultural sources and the atmosphere were applied to 36 major Swedish catchments. We tested three alternatives of the empirical relationship between NANI and riverine N export using different ways of estimating atmospheric N deposition as the major N input (31-94 %) in these catchments. The relationship between riverine N export and NANI was strongest for the NANI calculation using NOy (r2 linear =0.704, r2 exponential =0.723) compared to NOy + net NHx (r2 linear =0.623, r2 exponential =0.670) and total NOy + NHx deposition (r2 linear =0.615, r2 exponential =0.658). The y-intercept (NANI= 0) of the linear and exponential regression models were between 40-160 kg N km-2 year-1 indicating a natural background flux from the catchment without anthropogenic inputs of some 100 kg N km-2 year-1. This agrees with similar results from North American boreal catchments. The slope of the three linear regressions varies from 0.24 (NOy + Net NHx) to 0.25 (NOy and NOy+ NHx), suggesting that in average 25% of the human inputs of nitrogen are exported by the rivers to the Baltic Sea. Agricultural catchments, in the middle and southern Sweden, have increased their riverine N export up to an order of magnitude compared to the inferred natural background flux as an effect of anthropogenic loading. Although, the relatively unperturbed northernmost catchments receive significant N loads from atmospheric deposition these catchments do not show any significant elevated riverine N export. The fact that nitrogen export in Swedish catchments appears to be higher in proportion to NANI at higher loads suggests that N retention could be saturating as loading rates increase. Such nonlinear or threshold responses have significant implications for nutrient management.
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| 5. |
- Eriksson Hägg, Hanna, et al.
(författare)
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Riverine nitrogen export in Swedish catchments dominated by atmospheric inputs
- 2012
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Ingår i: Biogeochemistry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0168-2563 .- 1573-515X. ; 111:1-3, s. 203-217
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the first estimates of net anthropogenic nitrogen input (NANI) in European boreal catchments. In Swedish catchments, nitrogen (N) deposition is a major N input (31-94%). Hence, we used two different N deposition inputs to calculate NANI for 36 major Swedish catchments. The relationship between riverine N export and NANI was strongest when using only oxidized deposition (NOy) as atmospheric input (r(2) = 0.70) rather than total deposition (i.e., both oxidized and reduced nitrogen, NOy + NHx deposition, r(2) = 0.62). The y-intercept (NANI = 0) for the NANI calculated with NOy is significantly different from zero (p = 0.0042*) and indicates a background flux from the catchment of some 100 kg N km(-2) year(-1) in addition to anthropogenic inputs. This agrees with similar results from North American boreal catchments. The slope of the linear regressions was 0.25 for both N deposition inputs (NOy and NOy + NHx), suggesting that on average, 25% of the anthropogenic N inputs is exported by rivers to the Baltic Sea. Agricultural catchments in central and southern Sweden have increased their riverine N export up to tenfold compared to the inferred background flux. Although the relatively unperturbed northernmost catchments receive significant N loads from atmospheric deposition, these catchments do not show significantly elevated riverine N export. The fact that nitrogen export in Swedish catchments appears to be higher in proportion to NANI at higher loads suggests that N retention may be saturating as loading rates increase. In northern and western Sweden the export of nitrogen is largely controlled by the hydraulic load, i.e., the riverine discharge normalized by water surface area, which has units of distance time(-1). Besides hydraulic load the percent total forest cover also affects the nitrogen export primarily in the northern and western catchments.
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| 7. |
- Eriksson Hägg, Hanna, et al.
(författare)
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Scenario Analysis on Protein Consumption and Climate Change Effects on Riverine N Export to the Baltic Sea
- 2010
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 44:7, s. 2379-2385
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper evaluates possible future nitrogen loadings from 105 catchments surrounding the Baltic Sea. Multiple regressions are used to model total nitrogen (TN) flux as a function of specific runoff (0), atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and primary emissions (PE) from humans and livestock. On average cattle contributed with 63%, humans with 20%, and pigs with 17% of the total nitrogen PE to land. Compared to the reference period (1992-1996) we then evaluated two types of scenarios for year 2070. i) An increased protein consumption scenario that led to 16% to 39% increased mean TN flux (kg per km(-2)). ii) Four climate scenarios addressing effects of changes in river discharge. These scenarios showed increased mean TN flux from the northern catchments draining into the Gulf of Bothnia (34%) and the Gulfs of Finland and Riga (14%), while the mean TN flux decreased (-27%) for catchments draining to the Baltic Proper. However, the net effect of the scenarios showed a possible increase in TN flux ranging from 3-72%. Overall an increased demand for animal protein will be instrumental for the Baltic Sea ecosystem and may be a major holdback to fulfill the environmental goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan.
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| 8. |
- Hong, Bongghi, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating regional variation of net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI/NAPI), major drivers, nutrient retention pattern and management implications in the multinational areas of Baltic Sea basin
- 2012
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Ingår i: Ecological Modelling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3800 .- 1872-7026. ; 227, s. 117-135
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The NANI/NAPI (net anthropogenic nitrogen/phosphorus input) Calculator Toolbox described in this paper is designed to address the consequences to Baltic Sea nutrient loads of the significant variation in agronomic practices and dietary preferences among European countries whose watersheds comprise the Baltic Sea basin. A primary objective of this work is to develop regional parameters and datasets for this budgeting tool. A previous version of the toolbox was applied to the entire contiguous United States to calculate NANI and its components (atmospheric N deposition, fertilizer N application, agricultural N fixation and N in net food and feed imports). Here, it is modified for application to the Baltic Sea catchments, where coastal watersheds from several countries are draining to international waters. A similar accounting approach is taken for calculating NAPI, which includes fertilizer P application, P in net food and feed imports and non-food use of P by human. Regional variation of NANI/NAPI parameters (agricultural fixation rates, human intake rates and livestock intake and excretion rates) are estimated, and their impact on the regional nutrient budget and the riverine nutrient flux is evaluated. There is a distinct north-to-south gradient in NANI and NAPI across the Baltic Sea catchments, and regional nutrient inputs are strongly related to riverine nutrient fluxes. Analysis of regional nutrient retention pattern indicates that, for some countries, compliance to the Baltic Sea Action Plan would imply enormous changes in the agricultural sector.
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| 9. |
- Hong, Bongghi, et al.
(författare)
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NANI/NAPI Calculator Toolbox Version 2.0 Documentation : Net Anthropogenic Nutrient Inputs in Baltic Sea Catchments
- 2011
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The main objective of this work was to develop regional settings of the NANI budgeting tool that will address the significant variation in agricultural practices and resulting nutrient accountings among European countries. NANI (Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen Inputs), first introduced by Howarth et al. (1996), estimate the human‐induced nitrogen inputs to a watershed and have been shown to be a good predictor of riverine nitrogen export at a large scale, multi‐year average basis. NANI have been calculated as the sum of four major components: atmospheric N deposition, fertilizer N application, agricultural N fixation, and net food and feed imports, which in turn are composed of crop and animal N production (negative fluxes removing N from watersheds) and animal and human N consumption (positive fluxes adding N to watersheds). Assuming approximate steady-state behavior, riverine N export is a fixed proportion of net nitrogen inputs.Similar calculations can be made for phosphorus (P) inputs, though because atmospheric deposition of P is usually considered negligible and there is no analog in P for atmospheric fixation, the calculation of Net Anthropogenic Phosphorus Inputs (NAPI) reduces to accounting for P fertilizer and P in net food/feed terms. While this document is primarily concerned with calculating NANI, we also describe the data sources and assumptions used to make the parallel calculations of NAPI.Version 2.0 of the Toolbox described in this document is an improvement of version 1.0 developed for US watersheds (http://www.eeb.cornell.edu/biogeo/nanc/nani/nani.htm; Hong et al. 2011). Version 1.0 allows the user to calculate NANI in any area within the contiguous United States (e.g., watershed, county, etc.) from nationally available databases downloadable from the Internet. The toolbox consists of a set of tools that:(1) calculate the proportions of various regions (political or gridded) in which data are collected that fall into areas of interest such as watersheds (“NANI‐GIS tools”),(2) extract and organize relevant data downloaded from web‐based datasets to be used by the accounting tools (“NANI‐extraction tools”), and(3) calculate NANI, their components, and other relevant items such as animal excretion (“NANI-.‐accounting tools”).While attempting to apply version 1.0 of the toolbox to Baltic Sea catchments, we found that the calculation of NANI in Baltic Sea catchments is more challenging than in US watersheds, mainly for two reasons:• Watersheds span international boundaries. Significant variation in agricultural practices and resulting nutrient accountings among European countries exist. For example, a substantial gradient in agricultural practices is expected among the former EU countries, new EU member states with transitional economies, and Belarus and Russia.• Gaps and uncertainties in the available data are much greater than those in the US. In general, the problem of missing information is more severe for the transitional countries, Belarus, and Russia, requiring numerous assumptions and guesswork to be made to deal with the insufficient data issue.Version 2.0 of the Toolbox describe in this document has several modules and improvements added to version 1.0 (which assumes spatially uniform agricultural practices, i.e., fixed values for all the NANI parameters, supported by the availability of well‐established and standardized datasets) to address the above difficulties. These improvements include:• Allowing spatial variation of NANI parameters (in this example, country‐specific NANI parameters) (Sections 4, 5.1, and 5.2)• Distribution of regional data (e.g., country-level crop production) into smaller spatial units (e.g., grid cells containing crop area information) (Section 5.3)• Making post‐calculation adjustments and refinements by accepting auxiliary datasets and manual calculations from the user (Section 3) In the following sections we describe the calculation of NANI and their components in the Baltic Sea catchments, with details of data availability, input preparation, and step-by‐step procedure of the use of various tools, and provide some preliminary results. In addition, Appendix 1 described parameter values used to create NAPI estimates following an accounting methodology in parallel to that for NANI.
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