| 1. |
- Myte, Robin, et al.
(författare)
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Metabolic factors and the risk of colorectal cancer by KRAS and BRAF mutation status
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 145:2, s. 327-337
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Factors related to energy metabolism and the metabolic syndrome, such as higher body mass index (BMI), blood glucose, or blood lipids, and blood pressure, are associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, CRC is a heterogeneous disease, developing through distinct pathways with differences in molecular characteristics and prognosis, and possibly also in risk factors. For subtypes defined by KRAS and BRAF mutation status, BMI is the only metabolic factor previously studied, with inconsistent findings. We investigated whether associations between BMI, blood glucose, blood lipids, and blood pressure and CRC risk differed by tumor KRAS and BRAF mutation status in 117,687 participants from two population-based cohorts within the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study (NSHDS). Hazard ratios (HRs) for overall CRC and CRC subtypes by metabolic factors were estimated with Cox proportional hazards regression, using multiple imputation to handle missing exposure and tumor data. During a median follow-up of 15.6 years, we acquired 1,250 prospective CRC cases, of which 766 cases had complete baseline and molecular tumor data. Consistent with previous evidence, higher BMI, total cholesterol, triglyceride levels, and blood pressure were associated with an increased risk of overall CRC (HRs per 1 standard deviation increase: 1.07 to 1.12). These associations were similar regardless of CRC subtype by KRAS and BRAF mutation status (all pheterogeneity > 0.05). The same was true for subtypes based on microsatellite instability status. Poor metabolic health may therefore be a universal mechanism for colorectal cancer, acting across multiple developmental pathways.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Back, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Permanent stoma rates after anterior resection for rectal cancer : risk prediction scoring using preoperative variables
- 2021
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Ingår i: British Journal of Surgery. - : Oxford University Press. - 0007-1323 .- 1365-2168. ; 108:11, s. 1388-1395
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: A permanent stoma after anterior resection for rectal cancer is common. Preoperative counselling could be improved by providing individualized accurate prediction modelling.METHODS: Patients who underwent anterior resection between 2007 and 2015 were identified from the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry. National Patient Registry data were added to determine presence of a stoma 2 years after surgery. A training set based on the years 2007-2013 was employed in an ensemble of prediction models. Judged by the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUROC), data from the years 2014-2015 were used to evaluate the predictive ability of all models. The best performing model was subsequently implemented in typical clinical scenarios and in an online calculator to predict the permanent stoma risk.RESULTS: Patients in the training set (n = 3512) and the test set (n = 1136) had similar permanent stoma rates (13.6 and 15.2 per cent). The logistic regression model with a forward/backward procedure was the most parsimonious among several similarly performing models (AUROC 0.67, 95 per cent c.i. 0.63 to 0.72). Key predictors included co-morbidity, local tumour category, presence of metastasis, neoadjuvant therapy, defunctioning stoma use, tumour height, and hospital volume; the interaction between age and metastasis was also predictive.CONCLUSION: Using routinely available preoperative data, the stoma outcome at 2 years after anterior resection for rectal cancer can be predicted fairly accurately.
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| 4. |
- Barros, Guilherme, et al.
(författare)
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Covariate selection for the estimation of marginal hazard ratios in high-dimensional data
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Hazard ratios are frequently reported in time-to-event and epidemiological studies to assess treatment effects. In observational studies, the combination of propensity score weights with the Cox proportional hazards model facilitates the estimation of the marginal hazard ratio (MHR). The methods for estimating MHR are analogous to those employed for estimating common causal parameters, such as the average treatment effect. However, MHR estimation in the context of high-dimensional data remain unexplored. This paper seeks to address this gap through a simulation study that consider variable selection methods from causal inference combined with a recently proposed multiply robust approach for MHR estimation. Additionally, a case study utilizing stroke register data is conducted to demonstrate the application of these methods. The results from the simulation study indicate that the double selection covariate selection method is preferable to several other strategies when estimating MHR. Nevertheless, the estimation can be further improved by employing the multiply robust approach to the set of propensity score models obtained during the double selection process.
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| 5. |
- Barros, Guilherme, 1992-
(författare)
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Estimation of hazard ratios from observational data with applications related to stroke
- 2024
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The objective of this thesis is to examine some challenges that may emerge when conducting time-to-event studies based on observational data. Time-to-event (also called survival) is a setting that involves analyzing how different factors may influence the length of time until an individual experiences the event of interest. This type of analysis is commonly applied in fields such as medical research and epidemiology. In this thesis, which focuses on stroke, we are interested in the time to a recurrent stroke or the death of a patient who survived a first stroke.Hazard ratios are one of the main parameters estimated in time-to-event studies. Hazard ratios involve comparing the risk of experiencing the event between two groups, usually a treated group and an untreated group. They can also involve other factors, such as different age groups. Hazard ratios can be estimated from the data by using the Cox regression model.Observational data, in contrast to experimental data, involves data collected without any intervention or random assignment of treatment to the individuals. Confounders, that is, variables that distort or obscure the true relationship between treatment and outcome, are always present and need to be controlled for in observational studies.National registers are an important source of observational data. A national registry is a centralized database or system that collects, stores, and maintains information about a specific population or group of individuals within a country. Sweden is known for its detailed and complete national registers. In this thesis, data from the Swedish Stroke Register (Riksstroke) is used to study factors related to stroke.In time-to-event studies involving observational data, several challenges may arise for the researcher during data analysis. Some individuals may not experience the event during the observation period and thus the information about their time until the event is incomplete. These individuals are considered as censored. Some individuals may experience another event rather than the one of interest, a competing risk. Additionally, models must be properly constructed, with researchers selecting variables and determining the suitable functional form.Four papers are included in the thesis. Paper I demonstrates how to handle competing risks in survival analysis. The study involves comparing individuals with and without standard modifiable risk factors and their risks of a recurrent stroke or death using data from the Swedish Stroke Register.The estimation of marginal hazard ratios is a common theme in the other three papers. All involve simulation studies in order to extend methods and explore best practices when estimating marginal hazard ratios.Paper II explores non-parametric methods that can be used as alternatives to more traditional parametric methods when balancing datasets in order to estimate a marginal hazard ratio. A case study was also conducted using data from the Swedish Stroke Register involving the prescription of anticoagulants at hospital discharge after a stroke.Paper III is about how censoring affects marginal hazard ratio estimation, even with perfect balancing of the dataset. We study this issue, taking into consideration varying effect sizes and censoring rates. A procedure to attenuate the problem is also studied.Paper IV concerns covariate selection in the case of high-dimensional data. High-dimensional data involves cases in which the number of covariates in the study is comparable to the number of individuals, and therefore covariate selection methods are needed. In the paper, we explore some of these methods and suggest a best-performing procedure. As Paper II, Paper IV involves a case study of anticoagulant prescription using data from the Swedish Stroke Register.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Barros, Guilherme W. F., et al.
(författare)
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Performance of modeling and balancing approach methods when using weights to estimate treatment effects in observational time-to-event settings
- 2023
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 18:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In observational studies weighting techniques are often used to overcome bias due to confounding. Modeling approaches, such as inverse propensity score weighting, are popular, but often rely on the correct specification of a parametric model wherein neither balance nor stability are targeted. More recently, balancing approach methods that directly target covariate imbalances have been proposed, and these allow the researcher to explicitly set the desired balance constraints. In this study, we evaluate the finite sample properties of different modeling and balancing approach methods, when estimating the marginal hazard ratio, through Monte Carlo simulations. The use of the different methods is also illustrated by analyzing data from the Swedish stroke register to estimate the effect of prescribing oral anticoagulants on time to recurrent stroke or death in stroke patients with atrial fibrillation. In simulated scenarios with good overlap and low or no model misspecification the balancing approach methods performed similarly to the modeling approach methods. In scenarios with bad overlap and model misspecification, the modeling approach method incorporating variable selection performed better than the other methods. The results indicate that it is valuable to use methods that target covariate balance when estimating marginal hazard ratios, but this does not in itself guarantee good performance in situations with, e.g., poor overlap, high censoring, or misspecified models/balance constraints.
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| 8. |
- Boström, Petrus, et al.
(författare)
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Oncological Impact of High Vascular Tie After Surgery for Rectal Cancer : A Nationwide Cohort Study
- 2021
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Ingår i: Annals of Surgery. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 0003-4932 .- 1528-1140. ; 274:3, s. e236-e244
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of tie level on oncological outcomes in rectal cancer surgery.Summary background data: Theoretically, a high tie of the inferior mesenteric artery could facilitate removal of apical node metastases and improve tumor staging accuracy. However, no appropriately sized randomized controlled trial exists and results from observational studies are not consistent.Methods: All stage I–III rectal cancer patients who underwent abdominal surgery with curative intention in 2007 to 2014 were identified and followed, using the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry. Primary outcome was cancer-specific survival, whereas overall and relative survival, locoregional and distant recurrence, and lymph node harvest were secondary outcomes, with high tie as exposure. We used propensity score matching to emulate a randomized controlled trial, and then performed Cox regression analyses to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with confidence intervals (CIs).Results: Some 8287 patients remained for analysis, of which 37% had high tie surgery. After propensity score matching, the 5-year cancer-specific survival rate was overall 86% and we found no association between the level of tie and cancer-specific (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.79–1.07) or overall (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.89–1.08) survival, nor to locoregional (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.59–1.23) or distant (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.88–1.15) recurrence, nor to relative survival (HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.85–1.28). Stratification and sensitivity analyses were similarly insignificant, after adjustment for confounding. Total lymph node harvest was, however, increased after high tie surgery (P < 0.01), but no differences were seen regarding positive nodes (P = 0.72).Conclusion: In this nationwide cohort study, the level of tie did not influence any patient-oriented oncological outcome, neither overall nor in node-positive patients. This would allow the patient's anatomical configuration and the surgeon's preferences to determine the level of tie.
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| 9. |
- Feldman, Inna, et al.
(författare)
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Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Salut Programme : a universal health promotion intervention for parents and children-protocol of a register-based retrospective observational study
- 2016
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 6:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: There is inadequate evidence for the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of health promotion interventions. The Salut Programme aims to reach all parents and children in the Vasterbotten County of Sweden with a combination of health promotion interventions initiated during pregnancy and continued over the childhood period. This study protocol describes an effectiveness study and an economic evaluation study, where the ongoing Salut Programme is compared to care-as-usual over the periods of pregnancy, delivery and the child's first 2 years of life. Methods: A register-based retrospective observational study design will be used with existing data sources with respect to exposures and outcomes. Outcomes of interest are clustered at 3 points: around the child's birth, 1 month after the child's birth and 2 years after the child's birth. We will simulate an experiment by retrospectively identifying and comparing children and their parents in the geographical areas where the Salut Programme was implemented since 2006 and onwards, and the areas where the Programme was not implemented before 2009. Outcomes will be analysed and compared for the premeasure period, and the postmeasure period for both groups. Our analysis combines difference-in-difference estimation with matching. A complementary analysis will be carried out on the longitudinal subsample of mothers who gave birth at least once during each of the time periods. The economic evaluation aims to capture the wider societal costs and benefits of the Salut Programme for the first 2 years of the children's lives. Incremental costs will be compared with incremental health gains and the results will be presented as a cost-consequence analysis. Ethics and dissemination: The Regional Ethical Review Board in Umea has given clearance for the Salut Programme research (2010-63-31M). No individual's identity will be revealed when presenting results. This study will provide information that can guide decision-makers to allocate resources optimally.
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| 10. |
- Gerdin, Anders, et al.
(författare)
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Preoperative beta blockers and other drugs in relation to anastomotic leakage after anterior resection for rectal cancer
- 2024
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Ingår i: Colorectal Disease. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1462-8910 .- 1463-1318. ; 26:5, s. 974-986
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim: Previous research has indicated that preoperative beta blocker therapy is associated with a decreased risk of complications after surgery for rectal cancer. This is thought to arise because of the anti-inflammatory activity of the drug. These results need to be reproduced and analyses extended to other drugs with such properties, as this information might be useful in clinical decision-making. The main aim of this work was to replicate previous findings of beta blocker use as a prognostic marker for postoperative leakage. We also investigated whether drug exposure might induce anastomotic leaks.Method: This is a retrospective multicentre cohort study, comprising 1126 patients who underwent anterior resection for rectal cancer between 2014 and 2018. The use of any preoperative beta blocker was treated as the primary exposure, while anastomotic leakage within 12 months of surgery was the outcome. Secondary exposures comprised angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, statins and metformin. Using multivariable regression, we performed a replication analysis with a predictive aim for beta blockers only, while adjustment for confounding was done in more causally oriented analyses for all drugs. We estimated incidence rate ratio (IRR) and relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).Results: Anastomotic leakage occurred in 20.6% of patients. Preoperative beta blockers were used by 22.7% of the cohort, while the leak distribution was almost identical between exposure groups. In the main replication analysis, no association could be detected (IRR 0.95, 95% CI 0.68–1.33). In the causally oriented analyses, only metformin affected the risk of leakage (RR 1.59, 95% Cl 1.31–1.92).Conclusion: While previous research has suggested that preoperative beta blocker use could be prognostic of anastomotic leakage, this study could not detect any such association. On the contrary, our results indicate that preoperative beta blocker use neither predicts nor causes anastomotic leakage after anterior resection for rectal cancer.
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