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- Beser Hugosson, Muriel, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of the Swedish car fleet model using recent applications
- 2016
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Ingår i: Transport Policy. - : Elsevier. - 0967-070X .- 1879-310X. ; 49, s. 30-40
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The composition of the car fleet with respect to age, fuel consumption and fuel types plays an important role on environmental effects, oil dependency and energy consumption. In Sweden, a number of different policies have been implemented to support CO2 emission reductions. In order to evaluate effects of different policies, a model for the evolution of the Swedish car fleet was developed in 2006. The model has been used in a number of projects since then, and it is now possible to compare forecasts with actual outcomes. Such evidence is relatively rare, and we think it may be useful to share our experience in this respect.We give a brief overview of the Swedish car fleet model system. Then we describe policies that have been implemented in recent years and the evolution of the Swedish car fleet. We then focus on two projects which enable comparison with actual outcomes, and analyse the differences between forecasts and outcomes. We find that the model has weaknesses in catching car buyers' preferences of new technology. When this is not challenged too much, the model can forecast reasonably well on an aggregate level. We also find that the model is quite sensitive to assumptions on future supply. This is not so much related to the model, but to its use. Depending on the use of the forecasts - be it car sales, emissions or fuel demand - it may be necessary to use different supply scenarios to get an idea of the robustness of the forecast result.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Boyer, Robert, et al.
(författare)
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Product Labels for the Circular Economy : Are Customers Willing to Pay for Circular?
- 2021
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Ingår i: Sustainable Production and Consumption. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 2352-5509. ; 27, s. 61-71
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While existing research has probed consumer responses to products of different recirculation pathways (recycling, reuse, refurbishment, etc), little work has examined consumer responses to an explicit “circular economy” product label or how willingness to pay is influenced by a continuum of circularity levels. This paper reports on the results of an online survey experiment that tests whether customers are willing to pay more for products with a theoretical multi-level Circular Economy score. Conjoint analysis was used on 800 respondents in the United Kingdom to test their willingness to pay for mobile phones and robot vacuum cleaners at different levels of circularity alongside other product attribute combinations. Results indicate that the average customer almost always prefers a more “circular” product when compared to products with otherwise identical attributes, and that customers are consistently willing to pay more for products with low or moderate levels of circular content. However, analysis suggests that willingness to pay more for products disappears, and in some cases declines, as the proportion of recirculated content increases. Results offer evidence that applying a numerical circular economy label at low levels of recirculated content could be a profitable strategy for producers of mobile phones and robot vacuum cleaners. Such a strategy is less certain for heavily refurbished products, fully reused products, or other product types. © 2020 The Authors
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| 5. |
- Engdahl, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Statistical Data for Free-floating Car Sharing versusPublic Transport
- 2017
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Free-floating car sharing is a form of car rental used by people for short periods of time where the cars canbe picked up and returned anywhere within a given area. In this paper, we have collected free-floating carsharing data, for electric as well as fossil fueled cars, and data for alternative trips using cycling, walking andpublic transport for the cities of Amsterdam, Berlin, Denver, Madrid, San Diego and Seattle. From this data,free-floating car sharing seems to be a compliment to other type of transports, including public transports,bicycling and walking, and not a competitor.
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| 6. |
- Englund, Cristofer, et al.
(författare)
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Method for prediction of utilization rate of electric vehicle free-floating car sharing services using data mining
- 2018
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Ingår i: 31st International Electric Vehicle Symposium and Exhibition, EVS 2018 and International Electric Vehicle Technology Conference 2018, EVTeC 2018.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Free-floating car sharing is a form of car rental used by people for short periods of time where the cars can be picked up and returned anywhere within a given area. In this paper, we have collected free-floating car sharing data, for electric as well as fossil fueled cars, and data regarding e.g. size of the city, number of cars in the service, etc. The utilization rates of the free-floating car sharing services vary much between the cities, greatly influencing the success of the services. This paper presents the most important factors influencing the utilization rate, and also a methodology to predict the utilization rate for new cities, using data mining based on Random Forests.
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| 9. |
- Habibi, Shiva, 1978, et al.
(författare)
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An empirical study on aggregation of alternatives and its influence on prediction in car type choice models
- 2019
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Ingår i: Transportation. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0049-4488 .- 1572-9435. ; 46:3, s. 563-582
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Assessing and predicting car type choices are important for policy analysis. Car type choice models are often based on aggregate alternatives. This is due to the fact that analysts typically do not observe choices at the detailed level that they are made. In this paper, we use registry data of all new car purchases in Sweden for two years where cars are observed by their brand, model and fuel type. However, the choices are made at a more detailed level. Hence, an aggregate (observed) alternative can correspond to several disaggregate (detailed) alternatives. We present an extensive empirical study analyzing estimation results, in-sample and out-of-sample fit as well as prediction performance of five model specifications. These models use different aggregation methods from the literature. We propose a specification of a two-level nested logit model that captures correlation between aggregate and disaggregate alternatives. The nest specific scale parameters are defined as parameterized exponential functions to keep the number of parameters reasonable. The results show that the in-sample and out-of-sample fit as well as the prediction performance differ. The best model accounts for the heterogeneity over disaggregate alternatives as well as the correlation between both disaggregate and aggregate alternatives. It outperforms the commonly used aggregation method of simply including a size measure.
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| 10. |
- Habibi, Shiva, 1978, et al.
(författare)
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Car fleet policy evaluation: The case of bonus-malus schemes in Sweden
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Sustainable Transportation. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1556-8318 .- 1556-8334. ; 13:1, s. 51-64
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we evaluate the bonus-malus schemes proposed by governmental investigation in Sweden in 2014. The objective was to reach the target of maximum 95 g/km of average emissions for new car sales by 2020. Two bonus-malus schemes along with several other policies were introduced in different scenarios as measures to reach the target. The scenarios differ in design regarding bonus-malus schemes, vehicle circulation tax, clean car premiums, company car benefits tax, and fuel tax. Both private and company car segments are targeted in these scenarios. We use a nested logit model for car type choice to predict the effects of the proposed policy scenarios on Swedish new car sales. Moreover, we introduce a methodology to predict the future of car supply. Our model results show that none of the three proposed policy scenarios is successful enough to meet the average emissions target. Furthermore, although the number of electric, plug-in hybrid, and alternative fuel cars will increase, new car sales will still be dominated by fossil-fueled cars in all scenarios. The average emissions in the scenarios containing bonus-malus schemes are not lower than that of the business-as-usual scenario. However, introducing bonus-malus schemes on its own would reduce emissions showing that interacting with other non--differentiated policies counteracts their effects. Moreover, bonus-malus schemes are predicted to give a budget surplus effect.
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