| 1. |
- Hageman, S., et al.
(författare)
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SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe
- 2021
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 42:25, s. 2439-2454
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
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| 2. |
- Ostergaard, H. B., et al.
(författare)
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Estimating individual lifetime risk of incident cardiovascular events in adults with Type 2 diabetes: an update and geographical calibration of the DIAbetes Lifetime perspective model (DIAL2)
- 2023
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Ingår i: European Journal of Preventive Cardiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 2047-4873 .- 2047-4881. ; 30:1, s. 61-69
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims The 2021 European Society of Cardiology cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend the use of (lifetime) risk prediction models to aid decisions regarding intensified preventive treatment options in adults with Type 2 diabetes, e.g. the DIAbetes Lifetime perspective model (DIAL model). The aim of this study was to update the DIAL model using contemporary and representative registry data (DIAL2) and to systematically calibrate the model for use in other European countries. Methods and results The DIAL2 model was derived in 467 856 people with Type 2 diabetes without a history of CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register, with a median follow-up of 7.3 years (interquartile range: 4.0-10.6 years) and comprising 63 824 CVD (including fatal CVD, non-fatal stroke and non-fatal myocardial infarction) events and 66 048 non-CVD mortality events. The model was systematically recalibrated to Europe's low- and moderate-risk regions using contemporary incidence data and mean risk factor distributions. The recalibrated DIAL2 model was externally validated in 218 267 individuals with Type 2 diabetes from the Scottish Care Information-Diabetes (SCID) and Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). In these individuals, 43 074 CVD events and 27 115 non-CVD fatal events were observed. The DIAL2 model discriminated well, with C-indices of 0.732 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.726-0.739] in CPRD and 0.700 (95% CI 0.691-0.709) in SCID. Conclusion The recalibrated DIAL2 model provides a useful tool for the prediction of CVD-free life expectancy and lifetime CVD risk for people with Type 2 diabetes without previous CVD in the European low- and moderate-risk regions. These long-term individualized measures of CVD risk are well suited for shared decision-making in clinical practice as recommended by the 2021 CVD ESC prevention guidelines.
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| 3. |
- Chong, Victor N H, et al.
(författare)
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Decreased thickness and integrity of the macular elastic layer of Bruch's membrane correspond to the distribution of lesions associated with age-related macular degeneration
- 2005
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Ingår i: American Journal of Pathology. - 0002-9440 .- 1525-2191. ; 166:1, s. 241-251
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of blindness in the elderly. In its severest form, choroidal neovessels breach the macular Bruch's membrane, an extracellular matrix compartment comprised of elastin and collagen laminae, and grow into the retina. We sought to determine whether structural properties of the elastic lamina (EL) correspond to the region of the macula that is predilected toward degeneration in AMD. Morphometric assessment of the macular and extramacular regions of 121 human donor eyes, with and without AMD, revealed a statistically significant difference in both the integrity (P < 0.0001) and thickness (P < 0.0001) of the EL between the macular and extramacular regions in donors of all ages. The EL was three to six times thinner and two to five times less abundant in the macula than in the periphery. The integrity of the macular EL was significantly lower in donors with early-stage AMD (P = 0.028), active choroidal neovascularization (P = 0.020), and disciform scars (P = 0.003), as compared to unaffected, age-matched controls. EL thickness was significantly lower only in individuals with disciform scars (P = 0.008). The largest gaps in macular EL integrity were significantly larger in all categories of AMD (each P < 0.0001), as compared to controls. EL integrity, thickness, and gap length in donors with geographic atrophy did not differ from those of controls. These structural properties of the macular EL correspond spatially to the distribution of macular lesions associated with AMD and may help to explain why the macula is more susceptible to degenerative events that occur in this disease.
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