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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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- AbdulWahab, Atqah, et al.
(författare)
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The emergence of multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa in cystic fibrosis patients on inhaled antibiotics
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lung India. - : Medknow Publications. - 0970-2113 .- 0974-598X. ; 34:6, s. 527-531
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa (MDR-PA) is an important and growing issue in the care of patients with cystic fibrosis (CF), and a major cause of morbidity and mortality.Objective: The objective of the study was to describe the frequency of MDR-PA recovered from the lower respiratory samples of pediatric and adult CF patients, and its antibiotic resistance pattern to commonly used antimicrobial agents including beta-lactams, aminoglycosides, and fluoroquinolones.Materials and Methods: The lower respiratory isolates of P. aeruginosa were obtained from inpatients and outpatients CF clinics from a tertiary care teaching hospital for the period from October 2014 to September 2015. The identification and antimicrobial susceptibility for all the isolates were performed by using the BD Phoenix (TM) and E-test in compliance with Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) guidelines.Results: A total of 61 P. aeruginosa samples were isolated from thirty CF patients from twenty families. Twelve sputum samples were positive for MDR-PA (seven nonmucoid and five mucoid isolates) from five CF patients (five families) with moderate-to-very severe lung disease given MDR-PA frequency of 19.7%. The median age of the study group was 20 (range 10-30) years. Three CF patients were on chronic inhaled tobramycin and two on nebulized colistin. The antimicrobial patterns of isolates MDR-PA showed the highest rate of resistance toward each gentamycin, amikacin, and cefepime (100%), followed by 91.7% to ciprofloxacin, 75% to tobramycin, 58.3% to meropenem, and 50% to piperacillin-tazobactam. None of the isolates were resistant to colistin during the study period.Conclusion: The study results emphasize that the emergence of a significant problem in the clinical isolates of P. aeruginosa in CF patients that dictate appropriate attention to the antibiotic management after proper surveillance.
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- Sid Ahmed, Mazen A., et al.
(författare)
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Prevalence and microbiological and genetic characteristics of multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa over three years in Qatar
- 2022
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Ingår i: Antimicrobial stewardship & healthcare epidemiology : ASHE. - : Norsk förening for epidemiologi. - 2732-494X .- 2732-494X. ; 2:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global priority with significant clinical and economic consequences. Multidrug-resistant (MDR) Pseudomonas aeruginosa is one of the major pathogens associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In healthcare settings, the evaluation of prevalence, microbiological characteristics, as well as mechanisms of resistance is of paramount importance to overcome associated challenges.METHODS: Consecutive clinical specimens of P. aeruginosa were collected prospectively from 5 acute-care and specialized hospitals between October 2014 and September 2017, including microbiological, clinical characteristics and outcomes. Identification and antimicrobial susceptibility test were performed using the BD Phoenix identification and susceptibility testing system, matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS), and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) test strips. Overall, 78 selected MDR P. aeruginosa isolates were processed for whole-genome sequencing (WGS).RESULTS: The overall prevalence of MDR P. aeruginosa isolates was 5.9% (525 of 8,892) and showed a decreasing trend; 95% of cases were hospital acquired and 44.8% were from respiratory samples. MDR P. aeruginosa demonstrated >86% resistance to cefepime, ciprofloxacin, meropenem, and piperacillin-tazobactam but 97.5% susceptibility to colistin. WGS revealed 29 different sequence types: 20.5% ST235, 10.3% ST357, 7.7% ST389, and 7.7% ST1284. ST233 was associated with bloodstream infections and increased 30-day mortality. All ST389 isolates were obtained from patients with cystic fibrosis. Encoded exotoxin genes were detected in 96.2% of isolates.CONCLUSIONS: MDR P. aeruginosa isolated from clinical specimens from Qatar has significant resistance to most agents, with a decreasing trend that should be explored further. Genomic analysis revealed the dominance of 5 main clonal clusters associated with mortality and bloodstream infections. Microbiological and genomic monitoring of MDR P. aeruginosa has enhanced our understanding of AMR in Qatar.
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- Sid Ahmed, Mazen, 1970-, et al.
(författare)
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Clinical outcomes, molecular epidemiology and resistance mechanisms of multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolated from bloodstream infections from Qatar
- 2021
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Ingår i: Annals of Medicine. - : Taylor & Francis. - 0785-3890 .- 1365-2060. ; 53:1, s. 2345-2353
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by multidrug-resistant (MDR)-Pseudomonas aeruginosa are associated with poor clinical outcomes, at least partly due to delayed appropriate antimicrobial therapy. The characteristics of MDR-P. aeruginosa bloodstream isolates have not been evaluated in Qatar. Our study aimed to examine in vitro susceptibility, clinical and molecular characteristics, and mechanisms of resistance of MDR-P. aeruginosa bloodstream isolates from Qatar.Materials and methods: We included all MDR-P. aeruginosa isolated from blood cultures taken between October 2014 and September 2017. Blood cultures were processed using BD BACTEC™ FX automated system. BD Phoenix™ was used for identification, Liofilchem® MIC Test Strips for MIC determination. Whole-genome sequencing was performed using the Illumina-HiSeq-2000.Results: Out of 362 P. aeruginosa bloodstream isolates, 16 (4.4%) were MDR. The median patient age was 55 years (range 43-81) and all patients presented with septic shock. Most patients received meropenem (12/16) and/or colistin (10/16). Clinical response was achieved in eight patients, and five patients died within 30-days. MDR-P. aeruginosa isolates belonged to 13 different sequence types. All isolates were non-susceptible to cefepime and ciprofloxacin. The most active agents were colistin (16/16) and aztreonam (10/16). Seven isolates produced blaVIM, and four possessed genes encoding extended-spectrum β-lactamases. Aminoglycoside modifying enzymes were present in 15/16, transferable qnr-mediated quinolone resistance gene was detected in 3/16, and the novel ciprofloxacin modifying enzyme CrpP-encoding gene in one isolate.Conclusion: MDR-P. aeruginosa BSIs are relatively uncommon in Qatar but are highly resistant, harbour multiple resistance genes, and are commonly associated with unfavourable clinical outcomes. Colistin was the only agent with consistent activity against the study isolates.Key messagesMDR-P. aeruginosa constituted <5% of P. aeruginosa blood isolates over three years.Typical risk factors for MDR infections were highly prevalent in the study population and overall clinical outcomes are consistent with those previously reported.Colistin was the only agent with consistent antibacterial activity against the study isolates.
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