| 1. |
- Allanach, Benjamin C., et al.
(författare)
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Simple and statistically sound strategies for analysing physical theories
- 2022
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Ingår i: Reports on progress in physics (Print). - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 0034-4885 .- 1361-6633. ; 85:5
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.
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| 2. |
- Alsing, Justin, et al.
(författare)
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Nested sampling with any prior you like
- 2021
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society: Letters. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1745-3925 .- 1745-3933. ; 505:1, s. L95-L99
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nested sampling is an important tool for conducting Bayesian analysis in Astronomy and other fields, both for sampling complicated posterior distributions for parameter inference, and for computing marginal likelihoods for model comparison. One technical obstacle to using nested sampling in practice is the requirement (for most common implementations) that prior distributions be provided in the form of transformations from the unit hyper-cube to the target prior density. For many applications - particularly when using the posterior from one experiment as the prior for another - such a transformation is not readily available. In this letter, we show that parametric bijectors trained on samples from a desired prior density provide a general purpose method for constructing transformations from the uniform base density to a target prior, enabling the practical use of nested sampling under arbitrary priors. We demonstrate the use of trained bijectors in conjunction with nested sampling on a number of examples from cosmology.
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| 3. |
- Balázs, Csaba, et al.
(författare)
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Cosmological constraints on decaying axion-like particles : a global analysis
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1475-7516. ; :12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Axion-like particles (ALPs) decaying into photons are known to affect a wide range of astrophysical and cosmological observables. In this study we focus on ALPs with masses in the keV–MeV range and lifetimes between 104 and 1013 seconds, corresponding to decays between the end of Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and the formation of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Using the CosmoBit module of the global fitting framework GAMBIT, we combine state-of-the-art calculations of the irreducible ALP freeze-in abundance, primordial element abundances (including photodisintegration through ALP decays), CMB spectral distortions and anisotropies, and constraints from supernovae and stellar cooling. This approach makes it possible for the first time to perform a global analysis of the ALP parameter space while varying the parameters of ΛCDM as well as several nuisance parameters. We find a lower bound on the ALP mass of around ma > 300 keV, which can only be evaded if ALPs are stable on cosmological timescales. Future observations of CMB spectral distortions with a PIXIE-like mission are expected to improve this bound by two orders of magnitude.
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| 4. |
- Handley, Will J., et al.
(författare)
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Bayesian inflationary reconstructions from Planck 2018 data
- 2019
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 100:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present three nonparametric Bayesian primordial reconstructions using Planck 2018 polarization data: linear spline primordial power spectrum reconstructions, cubic spline inflationary potential reconstructions, and sharp-featured primordial power spectrum reconstructions. All three methods conditionally show hints of an oscillatory feature in the primordial power spectrum in the multipole range l similar to 20 to l similar to 50, which is to some extent preserved upon marginalization. We find no evidence for deviations from a pure power law across a broad observable window (50 less than or similar to l less than or similar to 2000), but find that parametrizations are preferred which are able to account for lack of resolution at large angular scales due to cosmic variance, and at small angular scales due to Planck instrument noise. Furthermore, the late-time cosmological parameters are unperturbed by these extensions to the primordial power spectrum. This work is intended to provide a background and give more details of the Bayesian primordial reconstruction work found in the Planck 2018 papers.
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| 5. |
- Renk, Janina J., et al.
(författare)
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CosmoBit : a GAMBIT module for computing cosmological observables and likelihoods
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1475-7516. ; :2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We introduce CosmoBit, a module within the open-source GAMBIT software framework for exploring connections between cosmology and particle physics with joint global fits. CosmoBit provides a flexible framework for studying various scenarios beyond ACDM, such as models of inflation, modifications of the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom, exotic energy injection from annihilating or decaying dark matter, and variations of the properties of elementary particles such as neutrino masses and the lifetime of the neutron. Many observables and likelihoods in CosmoBit are computed via interfaces to AlterBBN, CLASS, DarkAges, MontePython, MultiModeCode, and plc. This makes it possible to apply a wide range of constraints from large-scale structure, Type Ia supernovae, Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and the cosmic microwave background. Parameter scans can be performed using the many different statistical sampling algorithms available within the GAMBIT framework, and results can be combined with calculations from other GAMBIT modules focused on particle physics and dark matter. We include extensive validation plots and a first application to scenarios with non-standard relativistic degrees of freedom and neutrino temperature, showing that the corresponding constraint on the sum of neutrino masses is much weaker than in the standard scenario.
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