| 1. |
- Jones, Gregory T., et al.
(författare)
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Meta-Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Studies for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Identifies Four New Disease-Specific Risk Loci
- 2017
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Ingår i: Circulation Research. - 0009-7330 .- 1524-4571. ; 120:2, s. 341-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rationale: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a complex disease with both genetic and environmental risk factors. Together, 6 previously identified risk loci only explain a small proportion of the heritability of AAA. Objective: To identify additional AAA risk loci using data from all available genome-wide association studies. Methods and Results: Through a meta-analysis of 6 genome-wide association study data sets and a validation study totaling 10 204 cases and 107 766 controls, we identified 4 new AAA risk loci: 1q32.3 (SMYD2), 13q12.11 (LINC00540), 20q13.12 (near PCIF1/MMP9/ZNF335), and 21q22.2 (ERG). In various database searches, we observed no new associations between the lead AAA single nucleotide polymorphisms and coronary artery disease, blood pressure, lipids, or diabetes mellitus. Network analyses identified ERG, IL6R, and LDLR as modifiers of MMP9, with a direct interaction between ERG and MMP9. Conclusions: The 4 new risk loci for AAA seem to be specific for AAA compared with other cardiovascular diseases and related traits suggesting that traditional cardiovascular risk factor management may only have limited value in preventing the progression of aneurysmal disease.
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| 2. |
- Andersen, Steffen, et al.
(författare)
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Asset Integration and Attitudes to Risk : Theory and Evidence
- 2017
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Measures of risk attitudes derived from experiments are often questioned because they are based on small stakes bets and do not account for the extent to which the decision-maker integrates the prizes of the experimental tasks with personal wealth. We exploit the existence of detailed information on individual wealth of experimental subjects in Denmark, and directly estimate risk attitudes and the degree of asset integration consistent with observed behavior. The behavior of the adult Danes in our experiment is consistent with partial asset integration: they behave as if some fraction of personal wealth is combined with experimental prizes in a utility function, and that this combination entails less than perfect substitution. Our subjects do not perfectly asset integrate. The implied risk attitudes from estimating these specifications imply risk premia and certainty equivalents that are a priori plausible under expected utility theory or rank dependent utility models. These are reassuring and constructive solutions to payoff calibration paradoxes. In addition, the rigorous, structural modeling of partial asset integration points to a rich array of neglected questions in risk management and policy evaluation in important field settings.
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| 3. |
- Andersen, Steffen, et al.
(författare)
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Asset Integration and Attitudes toward Risk : Theory and Evidence
- 2018
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Ingår i: Review of Economics and Statistics. - : MIT Press. - 0034-6535 .- 1530-9142. ; 100:5, s. 816-830
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We provide evidence that choices over small stakes bets are consistent with assumptions of some payoff calibration paradoxes. We then exploit the existence of detailed information on individual wealth of our experimental subjects in Denmark, and directly estimate risk attitudes and the degree of asset integration. We discover that behavior is consistent with partial, rather than full, asset integration. The implied risk attitudes from estimating these specifications indicate risk premia and certainty equivalents that are a priori plausible. This theory and evidence suggest one constructive solution to payoff calibration paradoxes.
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| 4. |
- Andersen, Steffen, et al.
(författare)
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Discounting behavior : A reconsideration
- 2014
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Ingår i: European Economic Review. - : Elsevier. - 0014-2921 .- 1873-572X. ; 71, s. 15-33
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We re-evaluate the theory, experimental design and econometrics behind claims that individuals exhibit non-constant discounting behavior. Theory points to the importance of controlling for the non-linearity of the utility function of individuals, since the discount rate is defined over time-dated utility flows and not flows of money. It also points to a menagerie of functional forms to characterize different types of non-constant discounting behavior. The implied experimental design calls for individuals to undertake several tasks to allow us to identify these models, and to several treatments such as multiple horizons and the effect of allowing for a front end delay on earlier payments. The implied econometrics calls for structural estimation of th`e theoretical models, allowing for joint estimation of utility functions and discounting functions. Using data collected from a representative sample of 413 adult Danes in 2009, we draw surprising conclusions. Assuming an exponential discounting model we estimate discount rates to be 9% on average. We find no evidence to support quasi-hyperbolic discounting or "fixed cost" discounting, and only modest evidence to support other specifications of non-constant discounting. Furthermore, the evidence for non-constant discounting, while statistically significant, is not economically significant in terms of the size of the estimated discount rates. We undertake extensive robustness checks on these findings, including a detailed review of the previous, comparable literature.
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| 5. |
- Andersen, Steffen, et al.
(författare)
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Discounting behaviour and the magnitude effect : Evidence from a field experiment in Denmark
- 2013
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Ingår i: Economica. - : Blackwell Publishing. - 0013-0427 .- 1468-0335. ; 80:320, s. 670-697
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We evaluate the claim that individuals exhibit a magnitude effect in their discounting behaviour, where higher discount rates are inferred from choices made with lower principals, all else being equal. If the magnitude effect is quantitatively significant, it is not appropriate to use one discount rate that is independent of the scale of the project for cost-benefit analysis and capital budgeting. Using data from a field experiment in Denmark, we find statistically significant evidence of a magnitude effect that is much smaller than is claimed. This evidence surfaces only if one controls for unobserved individual heterogeneity in the population.
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| 6. |
- Andersen, Steffen, et al.
(författare)
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Dual criteria decisions
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Economic Psychology. - : Elsevier. - 0167-4870 .- 1872-7719. ; 41, s. 101-113
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The most popular models of decision making use a single criterion to evaluate projects or lotteries. However, decision makers may actually consider multiple criteria when evaluating projects. We consider a dual criteria model from psychology. This model integrates the familiar tradeoffs between risk and utility that economists traditionally assume, allowance for rank-dependent decision weights, and consideration of income thresholds. We examine the issues involved in full maximum likelihood estimation of the model using observed choice data. We propose a general method for integrating the multiple criteria, using the logic of mixture models, which we believe is attractive from a decision-theoretic and statistical perspective. The model is applied to observed choices from a major natural experiment involving intrinsically dynamic choices over highly skewed outcomes. The evidence points to the clear role that income thresholds play in such decision making, but does not rule out a role for tradeoffs between risk and utility or probability weighting.
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| 7. |
- Andersen, Steffen, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating subjective probabilities
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. - : Springer. - 0895-5646 .- 1573-0476. ; 48:3, s. 207-229
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Subjective probabilities play a central role in many economic decisions and act as an immediate confound of inferences about behavior, unless controlled for. Several procedures to recover subjective probabilities have been proposed, but in order to recover the correct latent probability one must either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake "calibrating adjustments" to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still employing relatively simple elicitation mechanisms.
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| 8. |
- Andersen, Steffen, et al.
(författare)
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Inferring beliefs as subjectively imprecise probabilities
- 2012
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Ingår i: Theory and Decision. - : Springer Nature. - 0040-5833 .- 1573-7187. ; 73:1, s. 161-184
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We propose a method for estimating subjective beliefs, viewed as a subjective probability distribution. The key insight is to characterize beliefs as a parameter to be estimated from observed choices in a well-defined experimental task and to estimate that parameter as a random coefficient. The experimental task consists of a series of standard lottery choices in which the subject is assumed to use conventional risk attitudes to select one lottery or the other and then a series of betting choices in which the subject is presented with a range of bookies offering odds on the outcome of some event that the subject has a belief over. Knowledge of the risk attitudes of subjects conditions the inferences about subjective beliefs. Maximum simulated likelihood methods are used to estimate a structural model in which subjects employ subjective beliefs to make bets. We present evidence that some subjective probabilities are indeed best characterized as probability distributions with non-zero variance.
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| 9. |
- Andersen, Steffen, et al.
(författare)
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Multiattribute Utility Theory, Intertemporal Utility, and Correlation Aversion
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Economic Review. - : Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Inc.. - 0020-6598 .- 1468-2354. ; 59:2, s. 537-555
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Convenient assumptions about qualitative properties of the intertemporal utility function have generated counterintuitive implications for the relationship between atemporal risk aversion and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. If the intertemporal utility function is additively separable, then the latter two concepts are the inverse of each other. We review a theoretical specification with a long lineage in the literature on multi-attribute utility and use this theoretical structure to guide the design of a series of experiments that allow us to identify and estimate intertemporal correlation aversion. Our results show that subjects are correlation averse over lotteries with intertemporal income profiles.
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| 10. |
- Andersen, Steffen, et al.
(författare)
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Non-linear mixed logit
- 2012
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Ingår i: Theory and Decision. - : Springer Nature. - 0040-5833 .- 1573-7187. ; 73:1, s. 77-96
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We develop an extension of the familiar linear mixed logit model to allow for the direct estimation of parametric non-linear functions defined over structural parameters. Classic applications include the estimation of coefficients of utility functions to characterize risk attitudes and discounting functions to characterize impatience. There are several unexpected benefits of this extension, apart from the ability to directly estimate structural parameters of theoretical interest.
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