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- Heber, S, et al.
(författare)
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A Model Predicting Mortality of Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients Four Days After Admission: Development, Internal and Temporal-External Validation
- 2022
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Ingår i: Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2235-2988. ; 11, s. 795026-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To develop and validate a prognostic model for in-hospital mortality after four days based on age, fever at admission and five haematological parameters routinely measured in hospitalized Covid-19 patients during the first four days after admission.MethodsHaematological parameters measured during the first 4 days after admission were subjected to a linear mixed model to obtain patient-specific intercepts and slopes for each parameter. A prediction model was built using logistic regression with variable selection and shrinkage factor estimation supported by bootstrapping. Model development was based on 481 survivors and 97 non-survivors, hospitalized before the occurrence of mutations. Internal validation was done by 10-fold cross-validation. The model was temporally-externally validated in 299 survivors and 42 non-survivors hospitalized when the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) was prevalent.ResultsThe final model included age, fever on admission as well as the slope or intercept of lactate dehydrogenase, platelet count, C-reactive protein, and creatinine. Tenfold cross validation resulted in a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.92, a mean calibration slope of 1.0023 and a Brier score of 0.076. At temporal-external validation, application of the previously developed model showed an AUROC of 0.88, a calibration slope of 0.95 and a Brier score of 0.073. Regarding the relative importance of the variables, the (apparent) variation in mortality explained by the six variables deduced from the haematological parameters measured during the first four days is higher (explained variation 0.295) than that of age (0.210).ConclusionsThe presented model requires only variables routinely acquired in hospitals, which allows immediate and wide-spread use as a decision support for earlier discharge of low-risk patients to reduce the burden on the health care system.Clinical Trial RegistrationAustrian Coronavirus Adaptive Clinical Trial (ACOVACT); ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT04351724.
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- Hober, Sophia, Professor, 1965-, et al.
(författare)
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Systematic evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 antigens enables a highly specific and sensitive multiplex serological COVID-19 assay
- 2021
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Ingår i: Clinical & Translational Immunology. - : Wiley. - 2050-0068. ; 10:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective. The COVID-19 pandemic poses an immense need for accurate, sensitive and high-throughput clinical tests, and serological assays are needed for both overarching epidemiological studies and evaluating vaccines. Here, we present the development and validation of a high-throughput multiplex bead-based serological assay. Methods. More than 100 representations of SARS-CoV-2 proteins were included for initial evaluation, including antigens produced in bacterial and mammalian hosts as well as synthetic peptides. The five best-performing antigens, three representing the spike glycoprotein and two representing the nucleocapsid protein, were further evaluated for detection of IgG antibodies in samples from 331 COVID-19 patients and convalescents, and in 2090 negative controls sampled before 2020. Results. Three antigens were finally selected, represented by a soluble trimeric form and the S1-domain of the spike glycoprotein as well as by the C-terminal domain of the nucleocapsid. The sensitivity for these three antigens individually was found to be 99.7%, 99.1% and 99.7%, and the specificity was found to be 98.1%, 98.7% and 95.7%. The best assay performance was although achieved when utilising two antigens in combination, enabling a sensitivity of up to 99.7% combined with a specificity of 100%. Requiring any two of the three antigens resulted in a sensitivity of 99.7% and a specificity of 99.4%. Conclusion. These observations demonstrate that a serological test based on a combination of several SARS-CoV-2 antigens enables a highly specific and sensitive multiplex serological COVID-19 assay.
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