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- Arheimer, Berit, et al.
(författare)
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The IAHS Science for Solutions decade, with Hydrology Engaging Local People IN a Global world (HELPING)
- 2024
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The new scientific decade (2023-2032) of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) aims at searching for sustainable solutions to undesired water conditions - may it be too little, too much or too polluted. Many of the current issues originate from global change, while solutions to problems must embrace local understanding and context. The decade will explore the current water crises by searching for actionable knowledge within three themes: global and local interactions, sustainable solutions and innovative cross-cutting methods. We capitalise on previous IAHS Scientific Decades shaping a trilogy; from Hydrological Predictions (PUB) to Change and Interdisciplinarity (Panta Rhei) to Solutions (HELPING). The vision is to solve fundamental water-related environmental and societal problems by engaging with other disciplines and local stakeholders. The decade endorses mutual learning and co-creation to progress towards UN sustainable development goals. Hence, HELPING is a vehicle for putting science in action, driven by scientists working on local hydrology in coordination with local, regional, and global processes.
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- Ots, R., et al.
(författare)
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Simulating secondary organic aerosol from missing diesel-related intermediate-volatility organic compound emissions during the Clean Air for London (ClearfLo) campaign
- 2016
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 16:10, s. 6453-6473
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present high-resolution (5aEuro-kmaEuro-aEuro parts per thousand x aEuro-5aEuro-km) atmospheric chemical transport model (ACTM) simulations of the impact of newly estimated traffic-related emissions on secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation over the UK for 2012. Our simulations include additional diesel-related intermediate-volatility organic compound (IVOC) emissions derived directly from comprehensive field measurements at an urban background site in London during the 2012 Clean Air for London (ClearfLo) campaign. Our IVOC emissions are added proportionally to VOC emissions, as opposed to proportionally to primary organic aerosol (POA) as has been done by previous ACTM studies seeking to simulate the effects of these missing emissions. Modelled concentrations are evaluated against hourly and daily measurements of organic aerosol (OA) components derived from aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements also made during the ClearfLo campaign at three sites in the London area. According to the model simulations, diesel-related IVOCs can explain on average aEuro parts per thousand aEuro-30aEuro-% of the annual SOA in and around London. Furthermore, the 90th percentile of modelled daily SOA concentrations for the whole year is 3.8aEuro-A mu gaEuro-m(-3), constituting a notable addition to total particulate matter. More measurements of these precursors (currently not included in official emissions inventories) is recommended. During the period of concurrent measurements, SOA concentrations at the Detling rural background location east of London were greater than at the central London location. The model shows that this was caused by an intense pollution plume with a strong gradient of imported SOA passing over the rural location. This demonstrates the value of modelling for supporting the interpretation of measurements taken at different sites or for short durations.
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- Blösch, Günter, et al.
(författare)
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Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) - a community perspective
- 2019
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 64:10, s. 1141-1158
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.
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- Gunnarsson, Ronny K, 1955, et al.
(författare)
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What is the optimal strategy for managing primary care patients with an uncomplicated acute sore throat? Comparing the consequences of nine different strategies using a compilation of previous studies
- 2022
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Ingår i: Bmj Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 12:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective Identifying optimal strategies for managing patients of any age with varying risk of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) attending for an apparently uncomplicated acute sore throat, also clarifying the role of point-of-care testing (POCT) for presence of group A beta-haemolytic Streptococcus (GABHS) in these settings. Design We compared outcomes of adhering to nine different strategies for managing these patients in primary healthcare. Setting and participants The nine strategies, similar to guidelines from several countries, were tested against two validation data sets being constructs from seven prior studies. Main outcome measures The proportion of patients requiring a POCT, prescribed antibiotics, prescribed antibiotics having GABHS and finally having GABHS not prescribed antibiotics, if different strategies had been adhered to. Results In a scenario with high risk of ARF, adhering to existing guidelines would risk many patients ill from GABHS left without antibiotics. Hence, using a POCT on all of these patients minimised their risk. For low-risk patients, it is reasonable to only consider antibiotics if the patient has more than low pain levels despite adequate analgesia, 3-4 Centor scores (or 2-3 FeverPAIN scores or 3-4 McIsaac scores) and a POCT confirming the presence of GABHS. This would require testing only 10%-15% of patients and prescribing antibiotics to only 3.5%-6.6%. Conclusions Patients with high or low risk for ARF needs to be managed very differently. POCT can play an important role in safely targeting the use of antibiotics for patients with an apparently uncomplicated acute sore throat.
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- Arrow, K., et al.
(författare)
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Determining Benefits and Costs for Future Generations
- 2013
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Ingår i: Science. - 0036-8075. ; 341:6144, s. 349-350
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In economic project analysis, the rate at which future benefits and costs are discounted relative to current values often determines whether a project passes the benefit-cost test. This is especially true of projects with long time horizons, such as those to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Whether the benefits of climate policies, which can last for centuries, outweigh the costs, many of which are borne today, is especially sensitive to the rate at which future benefits are discounted. This is also true of other policies, e.g., affecting nuclear waste disposal or the construction of long-lived infrastructure
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- Arrow, K. J., et al.
(författare)
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Should Governments Use a Declining Discount Rate in Project Analysis?
- 2014
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Ingår i: Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. - : University of Chicago Press. - 1750-6816 .- 1750-6824. ; 8:2, s. 145-163
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Should governments use a discount rate that declines over time when evaluating the future benefits and costs of public projects? The argument for using a declining discount rate (DDR) is simple: if the discount rates that will be applied in the future are uncertain but positively correlated, and if the analyst can assign probabilities to these discount rates, then the result will be a declining schedule of certainty-equivalent discount rates. There is a growing empirical literature that estimates models of long-term interest rates and uses them to forecast the DDR schedule. However, this literature has been criticized because it lacks a connection to the theory of project evaluation. In benefit-cost analysis, the net benefits of a project in year t (in consumption units) are discounted to the present at the rate at which society would trade consumption in year t for consumption in the present. With simplifying assumptions, this leads to the Ramsey discounting formula, which results in a declining certainty-equivalent discount rate if the rate of growth in consumption is uncertain and if shocks to consumption are correlated over time. We conclude that the arguments in favor of a DDR are compelling and thus merit serious consideration by regulatory agencies in the United States.
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