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- Arrow, K., et al.
(författare)
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Determining Benefits and Costs for Future Generations
- 2013
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Ingår i: Science. - 0036-8075. ; 341:6144, s. 349-350
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In economic project analysis, the rate at which future benefits and costs are discounted relative to current values often determines whether a project passes the benefit-cost test. This is especially true of projects with long time horizons, such as those to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Whether the benefits of climate policies, which can last for centuries, outweigh the costs, many of which are borne today, is especially sensitive to the rate at which future benefits are discounted. This is also true of other policies, e.g., affecting nuclear waste disposal or the construction of long-lived infrastructure
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- Arrow, K. J., et al.
(författare)
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Should Governments Use a Declining Discount Rate in Project Analysis?
- 2014
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Ingår i: Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. - : University of Chicago Press. - 1750-6816 .- 1750-6824. ; 8:2, s. 145-163
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Should governments use a discount rate that declines over time when evaluating the future benefits and costs of public projects? The argument for using a declining discount rate (DDR) is simple: if the discount rates that will be applied in the future are uncertain but positively correlated, and if the analyst can assign probabilities to these discount rates, then the result will be a declining schedule of certainty-equivalent discount rates. There is a growing empirical literature that estimates models of long-term interest rates and uses them to forecast the DDR schedule. However, this literature has been criticized because it lacks a connection to the theory of project evaluation. In benefit-cost analysis, the net benefits of a project in year t (in consumption units) are discounted to the present at the rate at which society would trade consumption in year t for consumption in the present. With simplifying assumptions, this leads to the Ramsey discounting formula, which results in a declining certainty-equivalent discount rate if the rate of growth in consumption is uncertain and if shocks to consumption are correlated over time. We conclude that the arguments in favor of a DDR are compelling and thus merit serious consideration by regulatory agencies in the United States.
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- Arheimer, Berit, et al.
(författare)
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The IAHS Science for Solutions decade, with Hydrology Engaging Local People IN a Global world (HELPING)
- 2024
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The new scientific decade (2023-2032) of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) aims at searching for sustainable solutions to undesired water conditions - may it be too little, too much or too polluted. Many of the current issues originate from global change, while solutions to problems must embrace local understanding and context. The decade will explore the current water crises by searching for actionable knowledge within three themes: global and local interactions, sustainable solutions and innovative cross-cutting methods. We capitalise on previous IAHS Scientific Decades shaping a trilogy; from Hydrological Predictions (PUB) to Change and Interdisciplinarity (Panta Rhei) to Solutions (HELPING). The vision is to solve fundamental water-related environmental and societal problems by engaging with other disciplines and local stakeholders. The decade endorses mutual learning and co-creation to progress towards UN sustainable development goals. Hence, HELPING is a vehicle for putting science in action, driven by scientists working on local hydrology in coordination with local, regional, and global processes.
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- Blösch, Günter, et al.
(författare)
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Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) - a community perspective
- 2019
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 64:10, s. 1141-1158
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.
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- Sobowale, Oluwaseun A., et al.
(författare)
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Baseline perihematomal edema, C-reactive protein, and 30-day mortality are not associated in intracerebral hemorrhage
- 2024
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Ingår i: FRONTIERS IN NEUROLOGY. - 1664-2295. ; 15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The relationship between baseline perihematomal edema (PHE) and inflammation, and their impact on survival after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are not well understood.Objective Assess the association between baseline PHE, baseline C-reactive protein (CRP), and early death after ICH.Methods Analysis of pooled data from multicenter ICH registries. We included patients presenting within 24 h of symptom onset, using multifactorial linear regression model to assess the association between CRP and edema extension distance (EED), and a multifactorial Cox regression model to assess the association between CRP, PHE volume and 30-day mortality.Results We included 1,034 patients. Median age was 69 (interquartile range [IQR] 59-79), median baseline ICH volume 11.5 (IQR 4.3-28.9) mL, and median baseline CRP 2.5 (IQR 1.5-7.0) mg/L. In the multifactorial analysis [adjusting for cohort, age, sex, log-ICH volume, ICH location, intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), statin use, glucose, and systolic blood pressure], baseline log-CRP was not associated with baseline EED: for a 50% increase in CRP the difference in expected mean EED was 0.004 cm (95%CI 0.000-0.008, p = 0.055). In a further multifactorial analysis, after adjusting for key predictors of mortality, neither a 50% increase in PHE volume nor CRP were associated with higher 30-day mortality (HR 0.97; 95%CI 0.90-1.05, p = 0.51 and HR 0.98; 95%CI 0.93-1.03, p = 0.41, respectively).Conclusion Higher baseline CRP is not associated with higher baseline edema, which is also not associated with mortality. Edema at baseline might be driven by different pathophysiological processes with different effects on outcome.
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