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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 3. |
- Baldauf, Sandra L., et al.
(författare)
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A Deep Hidden Diversity of Dictyostelia
- 2018
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Ingår i: Protist. - : Elsevier BV. - 1434-4610 .- 1618-0941. ; 169:1, s. 64-78
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dictyostelia is a monophyletic group of transiently multicellular (sorocarpic) amoebae, whose study is currently limited to laboratory culture. This tends to favour faster growing species with robust sorocarps, while species with smaller more delicate sorocarps constitute most of the group’s taxonomic breadth. The number of known species is also small (∼150) given Dictyostelia’s molecular depth and apparent antiquity (>600 myr). Nonetheless, dictyostelid sequences are rarely recovered in culture independent sampling (ciPCR) surveys. We developed ciPCR primers to specifically target dictyostelid small subunit (SSU or 18S) rDNA and tested them on total DNAs extracted from a wide range of soils from five continents. The resulting clone libraries show mostly dictyostelid sequences (∼90%), and phylogenetic analyses of these sequences indicate novel lineages in all four dictyostelid families and most genera. This is especially true for the species-rich Heterostelium and Dictyosteliaceae but also the less species-rich Raperosteliaceae. However, the most novel deep branches are found in two very species-poor taxa, including the deepest branch yet seen in the highly divergent Cavenderiaceae. These results confirm a deep hidden diversity of Dictyostelia, potentially including novel morphologies and developmental schemes. The primers and protocols presented here should also enable more comprehensive studies of dictyostelid ecology.
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| 5. |
- Ekenäs, Catarina, et al.
(författare)
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Arnica (Asteraceae) phylogeny revisited using RPB2 : Complex patterns and multiple d-paralogues
- 2012
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Ingår i: Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution. - : Elsevier BV. - 1055-7903 .- 1095-9513. ; 64:2, s. 261-270
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The region coding for the second largest subunit of RNA polymerase II (RPB2) was explored for resolving interspecific relationships in Arnica and lower level taxa in general. The region between exons 17 and 23 was cloned and sequenced for 33 accessions of Arnica and four outgroup taxa. Three paralogues of the RPB2-d copy (RPB2-dA, B and C) were detected in Arnica and outgroup taxa, indicating that the duplications must have occurred before the divergence of Arnica. Parsimony and Bayesian analyses of separate alignments of the three copies reveal complex patterns in Arnica, likely reflecting a history of lineage sorting in combination with apomixis, polyploidization, and possibly hybridization. Cloned sequences of some taxa do not form monophyletic clades within paralogues, but form multiple strongly supported clades with sequences of other taxa. Some well supported groups are present in more than one paralogue and many groups are in line with earlier hypotheses regarding interspecific relationships within the genus. Low levels of homoplasy in combination with relatively high sequence variation indicates that the introns of the RPB2 region could be suitable for phylogenetic studies in low level taxonomy.
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| 8. |
- Frajman, Božo, et al.
(författare)
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Phylogenetic relationships of Atocion and Viscaria (Sileneae, Caryophyllaceae) inferred from chloroplast, nuclear ribosomal, and low-copy gene DNA sequences
- 2009
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Ingår i: Taxon. - 0040-0262 .- 1996-8175. ; 58:3, s. 811-824
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Atocion and Viscaria are two of seven small genera recognised in the tribe Sileneae on the basis of molecular phylogenies. The aim of the present study is to infer phylogenetic relationships among their subordinate taxa, using chloroplast (rps16 intron,psbE-petG spacer region) and nuclear (ITS and the RNA polymerase gene family) DNA sequences. Relative dating was used to discriminate among intralineage and interlineage processes that cause incongruence among different gene-tree topologies. Atocion asterias is demonstrated to belong to Viscaria, which contains three species: V vulgaris (incl. V atropurpurea), V alpina, and V asterias. Infraspecific differentiation of V alpina is not supported by the sequence data. The traditional sectional delimitation of Atocion taxa within Silene is not supported phylogenetically, and Silene tatarinowii as well as S. hoefftiana do not belong to Atocion, as classified previously. Atocion contains six species: A. armeria, A. compactum, A. lerchenfeldianum, A. reuterianum, A. rupestre, and A. scythicinum (not included in our study). With this circumscription, Atocion and Viscaria, respectively, form monophyletic groups in the cpDNA, ITS, RPD2a and RPD2b trees, but not in the RPA2 tree, where such relationships were possibly distorted by ancient hybridisation. Hybridisation with subsequent chloroplast capture is likely to have taken place in the evolutionary history of A. compactum. Three novel nomenclatural combinations are made: Atocion reuterianum, A. scythicinum and Viscaria asterias.
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| 10. |
- Meunier, Cécile, 1975-, et al.
(författare)
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Multilevel Selection in the Filamentous Ascomycete Neurospora tetrasperma
- 2018
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Ingår i: American Naturalist. - : University of Chicago Press. - 0003-0147 .- 1537-5323. ; 191:3, s. 290-305
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The history of life has been driven by evolutionary transitions in individuality, that is, the aggregation of autonomous individuals to form a new, higher-level individual. The fungus Neurospora tetrasperma has recently undergone an evolutionary transition in individuality from homokaryosis (one single type of nuclei in the same cytoplasm) to heterokaryosis (two genetically divergent and free-ranging nuclear types). In this species, selection can act at different levels: while nuclei can compete in their replication and transmission into short-lived asexual spores, at the level of the heterokaryotic individual, cooperation between nuclear types is required to produce the long-lived sexual spores. Conflicts can arise between these two levels of selection if the coevolution between nuclear types is disrupted. Here, we investigated the extent of multilevel selection in three strains of N. tetrasperma. We assessed the ratio between nuclear types under different conditions and measured fitness traits of homo- and heterokaryotic mycelia with varying nuclear ratios. We show that the two nuclei have complementary traits, consistent with division of labor and cooperation. In one strain, for which a recent chromosomal introgression was detected, we observed the occurrence of selfish nuclei, enjoying better replication and transmission than sister nuclei at the same time as being detrimental to the heterokaryon. We hypothesize that introgression has disrupted the coevolution between nuclear types in this strain.
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