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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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- Heyder, T, et al.
(författare)
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Altered Fc galactosylation in IgG4 is a potential serum marker for chronic lung disease
- 2018
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Ingår i: ERJ open research. - : European Respiratory Society (ERS). - 2312-0541. ; 4:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Characterising chronic lung diseases is challenging. New, less invasive diagnostics are needed to decipher disease pathologies and subphenotypes. Fc galactosylation is known to affect IgG function, and is altered in autoimmune disorders and under other pathological conditions. We tested how well Fc glycans in IgG from bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) and serum correlated, and if the Fc glycan profile could reveal pulmonary inflammation.A shotgun proteomics approach was used to profile Fc glycans in serum and BALF of controls (n=12) and sarcoidosis phenotypes (Löfgren's syndrome (LS), n=11; and non-LS, n=12). Results were further validated in severe asthma (SA) (n=20) and published rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patient data (n=13) including clinical information.Intra-individually, Fc-galactosylation status of IgG1 (R2=0.87) and IgG4 (R2=0.95) correlated well between matrixes. Following GlycoAge-index correction, the ratio between agalactosylated and digalactosylated Fc glycans of IgG4 could distinguish sarcoidosis and SA from healthy and RA subjects with a mean±se area under the curve (AUC) of 78±6%. The AUC increased to 83±6% using the more chronic lung disease types (non-LS and SA) and most strikingly, to 87±6% for the SA subgroup.The results indicate that the Fc galactosylation status of IgG4 is a potential blood test marker for chronic lung inflammation.
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- Lundstrom, SL, et al.
(författare)
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SpotLight Proteomics-A IgG-Enrichment Phenotype Profiling Approach with Clinical Implications
- 2019
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Ingår i: International journal of molecular sciences. - : MDPI AG. - 1422-0067. ; 20:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sarcoidosis is a systemic interstitial lung disease of unknown aetiology. Less invasive diagnostics are needed to decipher disease pathology and to distinguish sub-phenotypes. Here we test if SpotLight proteomics, which combines de novo MS/MS sequencing of enriched IgG and co-extracted proteins with subsequent label-free quantification of new and known peptides, can differentiate controls and sarcoidosis phenotypes (Löfgrens and non-Löfgrens syndrome, LS and nonLS). Intra-individually matched IgG enriched from serum and bronchial lavage fluid (BALF) from controls (n = 12), LS (n = 11) and nonLS (n = 12) were investigated. High-resolution mass-spectrometry SpotLight proteomics and uni- and multivariate-statistical analyses were used for data processing. Major differences were particularly observed in control-BALF versus sarcoidosis-BALF. However, interestingly, information obtained from BALF profiles was still present (but less prominent) in matched serum profiles. By using information from orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) differentiating 1) sarcoidosis-BALF and control-BALF and 2) LS-BALF vs. nonLS-BALF, control-serum and sarcoidosis-serum (p = 0.0007) as well as LS-serum and nonLS-serum (p = 0.006) could be distinguished. Noteworthy, many factors prominent in identifying controls and patients were those associated with Fc-regulation, but also features from the IgG-Fab region and novel peptide variants. Differences between phenotypes were mostly IgG-specificity related. The results support the analytical utility of SpotLight proteomics which prospectively have potential to differentiate closely related phenotypes from a simple blood test.
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- Naz, S, et al.
(författare)
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Metabolomics analysis identifies sex-associated metabotypes of oxidative stress and the autotaxin-lysoPA axis in COPD
- 2017
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Ingår i: The European respiratory journal. - : European Respiratory Society (ERS). - 1399-3003 .- 0903-1936. ; 49:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous disease and a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. The aim of this study was to investigate the sex dependency of circulating metabolic profiles in COPD.Serum from healthy never-smokers (healthy), smokers with normal lung function (smokers), and smokers with COPD (COPD; Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stages I–II/A–B) from the Karolinska COSMIC cohort (n=116) was analysed using our nontargeted liquid chromatography–high resolution mass spectrometry metabolomics platform.Pathway analyses revealed that several altered metabolites are involved in oxidative stress. Supervised multivariate modelling showed significant classification of smokers from COPD (p=2.8×10−7). Sex stratification indicated that the separation was driven by females (p=2.4×10−7) relative to males (p=4.0×10−4). Significantly altered metabolites were confirmed quantitatively using targeted metabolomics. Multivariate modelling of targeted metabolomics data confirmed enhanced metabolic dysregulation in females with COPD (p=3.0×10−3) relative to males (p=0.10). The autotaxin products lysoPA (16:0) and lysoPA (18:2) correlated with lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 s) in males with COPD (r=0.86; p<0.0001), but not females (r=0.44; p=0.15), potentially related to observed dysregulation of the miR-29 family in the lung.These findings highlight the role of oxidative stress in COPD, and suggest that sex-enhanced dysregulation in oxidative stress, and potentially the autotaxin–lysoPA axis, are associated with disease mechanisms and/or prevalence.
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