| 1. |
- Abdalmoaty, Mohamed, 1986-, et al.
(författare)
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Identification of Stochastic Nonlinear Models Using Optimal Estimating Functions
- 2020
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Ingår i: Automatica. - : Elsevier. - 0005-1098 .- 1873-2836. ; 119
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The first part of the paper examines the asymptotic properties of linear prediction error method estimators, which were recently suggested for the identification of nonlinear stochastic dynamical models. It is shown that their accuracy depends not only on the shape of the unknown distribution of the data, but also on how the model is parameterized. Therefore, it is not obvious in general which linear prediction error method should be preferred. In the second part, the estimating functions approach is introduced and used to construct estimators that are asymptotically optimal with respect to a specific class of estimators. These estimators rely on a partial probabilistic parametric models, and therefore neither require the computations of the likelihood function nor any marginalization integrals. The convergence and consistency of the proposed estimators are established under standard regularity and identifiability assumptions akin to those of prediction error methods. The paper is concluded by several numerical simulation examples.
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| 2. |
- Abdalmoaty, Mohamed, 1986-, et al.
(författare)
-
Linear Prediction Error Methods for Stochastic Nonlinear Models
- 2019
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Ingår i: Automatica. - : Elsevier. - 0005-1098 .- 1873-2836. ; 105, s. 49-63
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The estimation problem for stochastic parametric nonlinear dynamical models is recognized to be challenging. The main difficulty is the intractability of the likelihood function and the optimal one-step ahead predictor. In this paper, we present relatively simple prediction error methods based on non-stationary predictors that are linear in the outputs. They can be seen as extensions of the linear identification methods for the case where the hypothesized model is stochastic and nonlinear. The resulting estimators are defined by analytically tractable objective functions in several common cases. It is shown that, under certain identifiability and standard regularity conditions, the estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. We discuss the relationship between the suggested estimators and those based on second-order equivalent models as well as the maximum likelihood method. The paper is concluded with a numerical simulation example as well as a real-data benchmark problem.
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| 3. |
- Abdalmoaty, Mohamed R., 1986-, et al.
(författare)
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Application of a Linear PEM Estimator to a Stochastic Wiener-Hammerstein Benchmark Problem⁎
- 2018
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Ingår i: IFAC-PapersOnLine. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 2405-8963. ; 51:15, s. 784-789
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The estimation problem of stochastic Wiener-Hammerstein models is recognized to be challenging, mainly due to the analytical intractability of the likelihood function. In this contribution, we apply a computationally attractive prediction error method estimator to a real-data stochastic Wiener-Hammerstein benchmark problem. The estimator is defined using a deterministic predictor that is nonlinear in the input. The prediction error method results in tractable expressions, and Monte Carlo approximations are not necessary. This allows us to tackle several issues considered challenging from the perspective of the current mainstream approach. Under mild conditions, the estimator can be shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The results of the method applied to the benchmark data are presented and discussed.
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| 4. |
- Abdalmoaty, Mohamed Rasheed, 1986-, et al.
(författare)
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Consistent Estimators of Stochastic MIMO Wiener Models based on Suboptimal Predictors
- 2018
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Ingår i: 2018 IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC). - : IEEE. - 9781538613955 - 9781538613948 - 9781538613962 ; , s. 3842-3847
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We consider a parameter estimation problem in a general class of stochastic multiple-inputs multiple-outputs Wiener models, where the likelihood function is, in general, analytically intractable. When the output signal is a scalar independent stochastic process, the likelihood function of the parameters is given by a product of scalar integrals. In this case, numerical integration may be efficiently used to approximately solve the maximum likelihood problem. Otherwise, the likelihood function is given by a challenging multidimensional integral. In this contribution, we argue that by ignoring the temporal and spatial dependence of the stochastic disturbances, a computationally attractive estimator based on a suboptimal predictor can be constructed by evaluating scalar integrals regardless of the number of outputs. Under some conditions, the convergence of the resulting estimators can be established and consistency is achieved under certain identifiability hypothesis. We highlight the relationship between the resulting estimators and a recently proposed prediction error method estimator. We also remark that the method can be used for a wider class of stochastic nonlinear models. The performance of the method is demonstrated by a numerical simulation example using a 2-inputs 2-outputs model with 9 parameters.
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| 5. |
- Abdalmoaty, Mohamed R. H., 1986-, et al.
(författare)
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Identification of Non-Linear Differential-Algebraic Equation Models with Process Disturbances
- 2021
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Ingår i: 2021 60th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC). - : IEEE. - 9781665436595 - 9781665436588 - 9781665436601 ; , s. 2300-2305
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) arise naturally as a result of equation-based object-oriented modeling. In many cases, these models contain unknown parameters that have to be estimated using experimental data. However, often the system is subject to unknown disturbances which, if not taken into account in the estimation, can severely affect the model's accuracy. For non-linear state-space models, particle filter methods have been developed to tackle this issue. Unfortunately, applying such methods to non-linear DAEs requires a transformation into a state-space form, which is particularly difficult to obtain for models with process disturbances. In this paper, we propose a simulation-based prediction error method that can be used for non-linear DAEs where disturbances are modeled as continuous-time stochastic processes. To the authors' best knowledge, there are no general methods successfully dealing with parameter estimation for this type of model. One of the challenges in particle filtering methods are random variations in the minimized cost function due to the nature of the algorithm. In our approach, a similar phenomenon occurs and we explicitly consider how to sample the underlying continuous process to mitigate this problem. The method is illustrated numerically on a pendulum example. The results suggest that the method is able to deliver consistent estimates.
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| 6. |
- Abdalmoaty, Mohamed R., 1986-, et al.
(författare)
-
Identification of a Class of Nonlinear Dynamical Networks⁎
- 2018
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Ingår i: IFAC-PapersOnLine. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 2405-8963. ; 51:15, s. 868-873
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Identification of dynamic networks has attracted considerable interest recently. So far the main focus has been on linear time-invariant networks. Meanwhile, most real-life systems exhibit nonlinear behaviors; consider, for example, two stochastic linear time-invariant systems connected in series, each of which has a nonlinearity at its output. The estimation problem in this case is recognized to be challenging, due to the analytical intractability of both the likelihood function and the optimal one-step ahead predictors of the measured nodes. In this contribution, we introduce a relatively simple prediction error method that may be used for the estimation of nonlinear dynamical networks. The estimator is defined using a deterministic predictor that is nonlinear in the known signals. The estimation problem can be defined using closed-form analytical expressions in several non-trivial cases, and Monte Carlo approximations are not necessarily required. We show, that this is the case for some block-oriented networks with no feedback loops and where all the nonlinear modules are polynomials. Consequently, the proposed method can be applied in situations considered challenging by current approaches. The performance of the estimation method is illustrated on a numerical simulation example.
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| 7. |
- Abdalmoaty, Mohamed, 1986-, et al.
(författare)
-
Simulated Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Identification of Nonlinear Models
- 2017
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Ingår i: The 20th IFAC World Congress. - : Elsevier. ; 50:1, s. 14058-14063
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nonlinear stochastic parametric models are widely used in various fields. However, for these models, the problem of maximum likelihood identification is very challenging due to the intractability of the likelihood function. Recently, several methods have been developed to approximate the analytically intractable likelihood function and compute either the maximum likelihood or a Bayesian estimator. These methods, albeit asymptotically optimal, are computationally expensive. In this contribution, we present a simulation-based pseudo likelihood estimator for nonlinear stochastic models. It relies only on the first two moments of the model, which are easy to approximate using Monte-Carlo simulations on the model. The resulting estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. We show that the pseudo maximum likelihood estimator, based on a multivariate normal family, solves a prediction error minimization problem using a parameterized norm and an implicit linear predictor. In the light of this interpretation, we compare with the predictor defined by an ensemble Kalman filter. Although not identical, simulations indicate a close relationship. The performance of the simulated pseudo maximum likelihood method is illustrated in three examples. They include a challenging state-space model of dimension 100 with one output and 2 unknown parameters, as well as an application-motivated model with 5 states, 2 outputs and 5 unknown parameters.
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| 8. |
- Abdalmoaty, Mohamed, 1986-, et al.
(författare)
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The Gaussian MLE versus the Optimally weighted LSE
- 2020
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Ingår i: IEEE signal processing magazine (Print). - : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). - 1053-5888 .- 1558-0792. ; 37:6, s. 195-199
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this note, we derive and compare the asymptotic covariance matrices of two parametric estimators: the Gaussian Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE), and the optimally weighted Least-Squares Estimator (LSE). We assume a general model parameterization where the model's mean and variance are jointly parameterized, and consider Gaussian and non-Gaussian data distributions.
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| 9. |
- Agüero, Juan C., et al.
(författare)
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Accuracy of linear multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) models obtained by maximum likelihood estimation
- 2012
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Ingår i: Automatica. - : Elsevier BV. - 0005-1098 .- 1873-2836. ; 48:4, s. 632-637
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we study the accuracy of linear multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) models obtained by maximum likelihood estimation. We present a frequency-domain representation for the information matrix for general linear MIMO models. We show that the variance of estimated parametric models for linear MIMO systems satisfies a fundamental integral trade-off. This trade-off is expressed as a multivariable 'water-bed' effect. An extension to spectral estimation is also discussed.
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| 10. |
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