| 1. |
- Delios, A., et al.
(författare)
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Examining the generalizability of research findings from archival data
- 2022
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This initiative examined systematically the extent to which a large set of archival research findings generalizes across contexts. We repeated the key analyses for 29 original strategic management effects in the same context (direct reproduction) as well as in 52 novel time periods and geographies; 45% of the reproductions returned results matching the original reports together with 55% of tests in different spans of years and 40% of tests in novel geographies. Some original findings were associated with multiple new tests. Reproducibility was the best predictor of generalizability-for the findings that proved directly reproducible, 84% emerged in other available time periods and 57% emerged in other geographies. Overall, only limited empirical evidence emerged for context sensitivity. In a forecasting survey, independent scientists were able to anticipate which effects would find support in tests in new samples.
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| 2. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 3. |
- Wuttke, Matthias, et al.
(författare)
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A catalog of genetic loci associated with kidney function from analyses of a million individuals
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 51:6, s. 957-972
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is responsible for a public health burden with multi-systemic complications. Through transancestry meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and independent replication (n = 1,046,070), we identified 264 associated loci (166 new). Of these,147 were likely to be relevant for kidney function on the basis of associations with the alternative kidney function marker blood urea nitrogen (n = 416,178). Pathway and enrichment analyses, including mouse models with renal phenotypes, support the kidney as the main target organ. A genetic risk score for lower eGFR was associated with clinically diagnosed CKD in 452,264 independent individuals. Colocalization analyses of associations with eGFR among 783,978 European-ancestry individuals and gene expression across 46 human tissues, including tubulo-interstitial and glomerular kidney compartments, identified 17 genes differentially expressed in kidney. Fine-mapping highlighted missense driver variants in 11 genes and kidney-specific regulatory variants. These results provide a comprehensive priority list of molecular targets for translational research.
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| 4. |
- Bellm, Eric C., et al.
(författare)
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The Zwicky Transient Facility : System Overview, Performance, and First Results
- 2019
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Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 131:995
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) is a new optical time-domain survey that uses the Palomar 48 inch Schmidt telescope. A custom-built wide-field camera provides a 47 deg(2) field of view and 8 s readout time, yielding more than an order of magnitude improvement in survey speed relative to its predecessor survey, the Palomar Transient Factory. We describe the design and implementation of the camera and observing system. The ZTF data system at the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center provides near-real-time reduction to identify moving and varying objects. We outline the analysis pipelines, data products, and associated archive. Finally, we present on-sky performance analysis and first scientific results from commissioning and the early survey. ZTF's public alert stream will serve as a useful precursor for that of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.
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| 5. |
- Bruch, Rachel J., et al.
(författare)
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A Large Fraction of Hydrogen-rich Supernova Progenitors Experience Elevated Mass Loss Shortly Prior to Explosion
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 912:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Spectroscopic detection of narrow emission lines traces the presence of circumstellar mass distributions around massive stars exploding as core-collapse supernovae. Transient emission lines disappearing shortly after the supernova explosion suggest that the material spatial extent is compact and implies an increased mass loss shortly prior to explosion. Here, we present a systematic survey for such transient emission lines (Flash Spectroscopy) among Type II supernovae detected in the first year of the Zwicky Transient Facility survey. We find that at least six out of ten events for which a spectrum was obtained within two days of the estimated explosion time show evidence for such transient flash lines. Our measured flash event fraction (>30% at 95% confidence level) indicates that elevated mass loss is a common process occurring in massive stars that are about to explode as supernovae.
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| 6. |
- Bruch, Rachel J., et al.
(författare)
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The Prevalence and Influence of Circumstellar Material around Hydrogen-rich Supernova Progenitors
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 952:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Narrow transient emission lines (flash-ionization features) in early supernova (SN) spectra trace the presence of circumstellar material (CSM) around the massive progenitor stars of core-collapse SNe. The lines disappear within days after the SN explosion, suggesting that this material is spatially confined, and originates from enhanced mass loss shortly (months to a few years) prior to the explosion. We performed a systematic survey of H-rich (Type II) SNe discovered within less than 2 days from the explosion during the first phase of the Zwicky Transient Facility survey (2018–2020), finding 30 events for which a first spectrum was obtained within <2 days from the explosion. The measured fraction of events showing flash-ionization features (>36% at the 95% confidence level) confirms that elevated mass loss in massive stars prior to SN explosion is common. We find that SNe II showing flash-ionization features are not significantly brighter, nor bluer, nor more slowly rising than those without. This implies that CSM interaction does not contribute significantly to their early continuum emission, and that the CSM is likely optically thin. We measured the persistence duration of flash-ionization emission and find that most SNe show flash features for ≈5 days. Rarer events, with persistence timescales >10 days, are brighter and rise longer, suggesting these may be intermediate between regular SNe II and strongly interacting SNe IIn.
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| 7. |
- Ho, Anna Y. Q., et al.
(författare)
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Cosmological Fast Optical Transients with the Zwicky Transient Facility : A Search for Dirty Fireballs
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 938:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dirty fireballs are a hypothesized class of relativistic massive-star explosions with an initial Lorentz factor Γinit below the Γinit ∼ 100 required to produce a long-duration gamma-ray burst (LGRB), but which could still produce optical emission resembling LGRB afterglows. Here we present the results of a search for on-axis optical afterglows using the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). Our search yielded seven optical transients that resemble on-axis LGRB afterglows in terms of their red colors (g − r > 0 mag), faint host galaxies (r > 23 mag), rapid fading (dr/dt > 1 mag day−1), and in some cases X-ray and radio emission. Spectroscopy of the transient emission within a few days of discovery established cosmological distances (redshift z = 0.876 to 2.9) for six of the seven events, tripling the number of afterglows with redshift measurements discovered by optical surveys without a γ-ray trigger. A likely associated LGRB (GRB 200524A, GRB 210204A, GRB 210212B, and GRB 210610B) was identified for four events (ZTF 20abbiixp/AT 2020kym, ZTF 21aagwbjr/AT 2021buv, ZTF 21aakruew/AT 2021cwd, and ZTF 21abfmpwn/AT 2021qbd) post facto, while three (ZTF 20aajnksq/AT 2020blt, ZTF 21aaeyldq/AT 2021any, and ZTF 21aayokph/AT 2021lfa) had no detected LGRB counterpart. The simplest explanation for the three "orphan" events is that they were regular LGRBs missed by high-energy satellites owing to detector sensitivity and duty cycle, although it is possible that they were intrinsically subluminous in γ-rays or viewed slightly off-axis. We rule out a scenario in which dirty fireballs have a similar energy per solid angle to LGRBs and are an order of magnitude more common. In addition, we set the first direct constraint on the ratio of the opening angles of the material producing γ-rays and the material producing early optical afterglow emission, finding that they must be comparable.
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| 8. |
- Ho, Anna Y. Q., et al.
(författare)
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SN 2020bvc : A Broad-line Type Ic Supernova with a Double-peaked Optical Light Curve and a Luminous X-Ray and Radio Counterpart
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 902:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present optical, radio, and X-ray observations of SN 2020bvc (=ASASSN-20bs, ZTF 20aalxlis), a nearby (z = 0.0252; d.=.114Mpc) broad-line (BL) Type Ic supernova (SN) and the first double-peaked Ic-BL discovered without a gamma-ray burst (GRB) trigger. Our observations show that SN 2020bvc shares several properties in common with the Ic-BL SN 2006aj, which was associated with the low-luminosity gamma-ray burst (LLGRB) 060218. First, the 10 GHz radio luminosity (L-radio approximate to 10(37) erg s(-1)) is brighter than ordinary core-collapse SNe but fainter than LLGRB SNe such as SN 1998bw (associated with LLGRB 980425). We model our VLA observations (spanning 13-43 days) as synchrotron emission from a mildly relativistic (v greater than or similar to 0.3c) forward shock. Second, with Swift and Chandra, we detect X-ray emission (L-X approximate to 10(41) erg s(-1)) that is not naturally explained as inverse Compton emission or part of the same synchrotron spectrum as the radio emission. Third, high-cadence (6x night(-1)) data from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) show a double-peaked optical light curve, the first peak from shock cooling of extended low-mass material (mass M-e < 10(-2) M-circle dot at radius R-e > 10(12) cm) and the second peak from the radioactive decay of 56Ni. SN 2020bvc is the first double-peaked Ic-BL SN discovered without a GRB trigger, so it is noteworthy that it shows X-ray and radio emission similar to LLGRB SNe. For four of the five other nearby (z less than or similar to 0.05) Ic-BL SNe with ZTF high-cadence data, we rule out a first peak like that seen in SN 2006aj and SN 2020bvc, i.e., that lasts approximate to 1 day.and reaches a peak luminosity M approximate to -18. Follow-up X-ray and radio observations of Ic-BL SNe with well-sampled early optical light curves will establish whether double-peaked optical light curves are indeed predictive of LLGRB-like X-ray and radio emission.
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| 9. |
- Ho, Anna Y. Q., et al.
(författare)
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The Broad-lined Ic Supernova ZTF18aaqjovh (SN 2018bvw) : An Optically Discovered Engine-driven Supernova Candidate with Luminous Radio Emission
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 893:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present ZTF18aaqjovh (SN 2018bvw), a high-velocity (broad-lined) stripped-envelope (Type Ic) supernova (Ic-BL SN) discovered in the Zwicky Transient Facility one-day cadence survey. ZTF18aaqjovh shares a number of features in common with engine-driven explosions: the photospheric velocity and the shape of the optical light curve are very similar to those of the Type.Ic-BL SN 1998bw, which was associated with a low-luminosity gamma-ray burst (LLGRB) and had relativistic ejecta. However, the radio luminosity of ZTF18aaqjovh is almost two orders of magnitude fainter than that of SN 1998bw at the same velocity phase, and the shock velocity is at most mildly relativistic (v.=.0.06-0.4c). A search of high-energy catalogs reveals no compelling gamma-ray burst (GRB) counterpart to ZTF18aaqjovh, and the limit on the prompt GRB luminosity of g >> ' L 1.6 10 erg s, iso 48 1 excludes a classical GRB but not an LLGRB. Altogether, ZTF18aaqjovh represents another transition event between engine-driven SNe associated with GRBs and ordinary Ic-BL SNe.
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| 10. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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