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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 2. |
- Eroglu, Z., et al.
(författare)
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Outcomes with adjuvant anti-PD-1 therapy in patients with sentinel lymph node-positive melanoma without completion lymph node dissection
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal for Immunotherapy of Cancer. - : BMJ. - 2051-1426. ; 10:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Until recently, most patients with sentinel lymph node-positive (SLN+) melanoma underwent a completion lymph node dissection (CLND), as mandated in published trials of adjuvant systemic therapies. Following multicenter selective lymphadenectomy trial-II, most patients with SLN+ melanoma no longer undergo a CLND prior to adjuvant systemic therapy. A retrospective analysis of clinical outcomes in SLN+ melanoma patients treated with adjuvant systemic therapy after July 2017 was performed in 21 international cancer centers. Of 462 patients who received systemic adjuvant therapy, 326 patients received adjuvant anti-PD-1 without prior immediate (IM) CLND, while 60 underwent IM CLND. With median follow-up of 21 months, 24-month relapse-free survival (RFS) was 67% (95% CI 62% to 73%) in the 326 patients. When the patient subgroups who would have been eligible for the two adjuvant anti-PD-1 clinical trials mandating IM CLND were analyzed separately, 24-month RFS rates were 64%, very similar to the RFS rates from those studies. Of these no-CLND patients, those with SLN tumor deposit >1 mm, stage IIIC/D and ulcerated primary had worse RFS. Of the patients who relapsed on adjuvant anti-PD-1, those without IM CLND had a higher rate of relapse in the regional nodal basin than those with IM CLND (46% vs 11%). Therefore, 55% of patients who relapsed without prior CLND underwent surgery including therapeutic lymph node dissection (TLND), with 30% relapsing a second time; there was no difference in subsequent relapse between patients who received observation vs secondary adjuvant therapy. Despite the increased frequency of nodal relapses, adjuvant anti-PD-1 therapy may be as effective in SLN+ pts who forego IM CLND and salvage surgery with TLND at relapse may be a viable option for these patients.
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| 3. |
- Boyer, E, et al.
(författare)
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SHREC 2011: Robust Feature Detection and Description Benchmark
- 2011
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Feature-based approaches have recently become very popular in computer vision and image analysis applications, and are becoming a promising direction in shape retrieval. SHREC’11 robust feature detection and description benchmark simulates the feature detection and description stages of feature-based shape retrieval algorithms. The benchmark tests the performance of shape feature detectors and descriptors under a wide variety of transformations. The benchmark allows evaluating how algorithms cope with certain classes of transformations and strength of the transformations that can be dealt with. The present paper is a report of the SHREC’11 robust feature detection and description benchmark results.
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| 5. |
- Fairweather-Tait, S, et al.
(författare)
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The usefulness of in vitro models to predict the bioavailability of iron and zinc: A consensus statement from the HarvestPlus Expert Consultation
- 2005
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Ingår i: International Journal for Vitamin and Nutrition Research. - : Hogrefe Publishing Group. - 0300-9831 .- 1664-2821. ; 75:6, s. 371-374
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A combination of dietary and host-related factors determines iron and zinc absorption, and several in vitro methods have been developed as preliminary screening tools for assessing bioavailability. An expert committee has reviewed evidence for their usefulness and reached a consensus. Dialyzability (with and without simulated digestion) gives some useful information but cannot predict the correct magnitude of response and may sometimes predict the wrong direction of response. Caco-2 cell systems (with and without simulated digestion) have been developed for iron availability, but the magnitude of different effects does not always agree with results obtained in human volunteers, and the data for zinc are too limited to draw conclusions about the validity of the method. Caco-2 methodologies vary significantly between laboratories and require experienced technicians and good quality cell culture facilities to obtain reproducible results. Algorithms can provide semi-quantitative information enabling diets to be classified as high, moderate, or low bioavailability. While in vitro methods can be used to generate ideas and develop hypotheses, they cannot be used alone for important decisions concerning; food fortification policy, selection of varieties for plant breeding programs, or for new product development in the food industry. Ultimately human studies are required for such determinations.
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| 7. |
- Nijs, Jo, et al.
(författare)
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Nociceptive, neuropathic, or nociplastic low back pain? : The low back pain phenotyping (BACPAP) consortium's international and multidisciplinary consensus recommendations
- 2024
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Ingår i: The Lancet Rheumatology. - : Elsevier. - 2665-9913. ; 6:3, s. e178-e188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The potential to classify low back pain as being characterised by dominant nociceptive, neuropathic, or nociplastic mechanisms is a clinically relevant issue. Preliminary evidence suggests that these low back pain phenotypes might respond differently to treatments; however, more research must be done before making specific recommendations. Accordingly, the low back pain phenotyping (BACPAP) consortium was established as a group of 36 clinicians and researchers from 13 countries (five continents) and 29 institutions, to apply a modified Nominal Group Technique methodology to develop international and multidisciplinary consensus recommendations to provide guidance for identifying the dominant pain phenotype in patients with low back pain, and potentially adapt pain management strategies. The BACPAP consortium's recommendations are also intended to provide direction for future clinical research by building on the established clinical criteria for neuropathic and nociplastic pain. The BACPAP consortium's consensus recommendations are a necessary early step in the process to determine if personalised pain medicine based on pain phenotypes is feasible for low back pain management. Therefore, these recommendations are not ready to be implemented in clinical practice until additional evidence is generated that is specific to these low back pain phenotypes.
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