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- Thompson, Robin N., et al.
(författare)
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Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies
- 2020
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 287:1932
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.
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- Calvin, Katherine, et al.
(författare)
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Bioenergy for climate change mitigation: Scale and sustainability
- 2021
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Ingår i: GCB Bioenergy. - : Wiley. - 1757-1707 .- 1757-1693. ; 13:9, s. 1346-1371
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many global climate change mitigation pathways presented in IPCC assessment reports rely heavily on the deployment of bioenergy, often used in conjunction with carbon capture and storage. We review the literature on bioenergy use for climate change mitigation, including studies that use top-down integrated assessment models or bottom-up modelling, and studies that do not rely on modelling. We summarize the state of knowledge concerning potential co-benefits and adverse side effects of bioenergy systems and discuss limitations of modelling studies used to analyse consequences of bioenergy expansion. The implications of bioenergy supply on mitigation and other sustainability criteria are context dependent and influenced by feedstock, management regime, climatic region, scale of deployment and how bioenergy alters energy systems and land use. Depending on previous land use, widespread deployment of monoculture plantations may contribute to mitigation but can cause negative impacts across a range of other sustainability criteria. Strategic integration of new biomass supply systems into existing agriculture and forest landscapes may result in less mitigation but can contribute positively to other sustainability objectives. There is considerable variation in evaluations of how sustainability challenges evolve as the scale of bioenergy deployment increases, due to limitations of existing models, and uncertainty over the future context with respect to the many variables that influence alternative uses of biomass and land. Integrative policies, coordinated institutions and improved governance mechanisms to enhance co-benefits and minimize adverse side effects can reduce the risks of large-scale deployment of bioenergy. Further, conservation and efficiency measures for energy, land and biomass can support greater flexibility in achieving climate change mitigation and adaptation.
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- Camprubi, E., et al.
(författare)
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The Emergence of Life
- 2019
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Ingår i: Space Science Reviews. - : SPRINGER. - 0038-6308 .- 1572-9672. ; 215:8
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this article is to provide the reader with an overview of the different possible scenarios for the emergence of life, to critically assess them and, according to the conclusions we reach, to analyze whether similar processes could have been conducive to independent origins of life on the several icy moons of the Solar System. Instead of directly proposing a concrete and unequivocal cradle of life on Earth, we focus on describing the different requirements that are arguably needed for the transition between non-life to life. We approach this topic from geological, biological, and chemical perspectives with the aim of providing answers in an integrative manner. We reflect upon the most prominent origins hypotheses and assess whether they match the aforementioned abiogenic requirements. Based on the conclusions extracted, we address whether the conditions for abiogenesis are/were met in any of the oceanic icy moons.
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