| 1. |
- Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al.
(författare)
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Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
- 2016
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Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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| 2. |
- Almulla, Youssef, et al.
(författare)
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The role of energy-water nexus to motivate transboundary cooperation : An indicative analysis of the Drina river basin
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management. - : Aalborg University press. - 2246-2929. ; 18, s. 3-28
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Low-carbon hydropower is a key energy source for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7-sustainable energy for all. Meanwhile, the effects of hydropower development and its operation are complex-and potentially a source of tension on Transboundary Rivers. This paper explores solutions that consider both energy and water to motivate transboundary cooperation in the operation of hydropower plants (HPPs) in the Drina River Basin (DRB) in South-East Europe. Here the level of cooperation among the riparian countries is low. The Open Source energy Modeling System-OSeMOSYS was used to develop a multi-country model with a simplified hydrological system to represent the cascade of HPPs in the DRB; together with other electricity options, including among others: energy efficiency. Results show that improved cooperation can increase electricity generation in the HPPs downstream without compromising generation upstream. It also demonstrates the role of inexpensive hydropower to enhance electricity trade in the region. Implementing energy efficiency measures would reduce the generation from coal power plants, thereby mitigating CO 2 emissions by as much as 21% in 2030 compared to the 2015 levels. In summary, judicious HPP operation and electricity system development will help the Western Balkans reap significant gains.
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| 3. |
- Anjo, J., et al.
(författare)
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Modeling the long-term impact of demand response in energy planning : The Portuguese electric system case study
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0360-5442 .- 1873-6785. ; 165, s. 456-468
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With the urge to decrease carbon emissions, electricity systems need to evolve to promote the integration of renewable resources and end-use energy efficiency. Demand Response (DR) can be used as a strategy, one among many, to improve the balance between demand and supply of electricity, especially in systems that rely heavily on variable energy renewable resources. Thus, it is important to understand up to what extent a countrywide system would cope with DR implementation. In this work, the impact of demand response in the long-term is assessed, using a model of the Portuguese electricity system in the modeling tool OSeMOSYS. The theoretical potential of DR is computed to understand better the impact on the overall system planning, by analyzing three scenarios – a business as usual scenario, a carbon-free system scenario in 2050, and a scenario without heavy carbon emission restrictions. DR impact in all three scenarios results in a decrease in the overall costs, on the capacity installed and in an increase in the percentage of renewable capacity. Further, an economic analysis showed that DR would take 15 years, on average, to influence the average electricity cost and that the reduction in total costs is mainly due to the avoided capacity investments.
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| 4. |
- Balderrama, S., et al.
(författare)
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Model-base cost evaluation of microgrids systems for rural electrification and energy planning purposes
- 2020
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2019 and IEA SHC International Conference on Solar Heating and Cooling for Buildings and Industry 2019. - Freiburg, Germany : International Solar Energy Society. ; , s. 1638-1647
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- With pressing priorities in the development agenda, policy makers in developing countries are in the difficult situation of prioritizing policy actions. Limited government and utility budgets need cost effective solutions to bring the desired development benefits of electrification, health, education and food security among others. Energy access is a prerequisite for economic activity and for human development as interacts in synergy with other development needs. As rural electrification models usually focus on the supply of electricity solely, thermal energy needs, such as cooking and water heating remain unattended and satisfied by non-renewable energy fuels. To this aim, we explore optimal electrification solutions addressing two types of energy demands, electricity and thermal energy demands for cooking. Our model builds on a 3-step electrification methodology proposed by Peña et al. including electricity as a modern source of clean energy for cooking in rural communities. The total investments needed to build and operate the microgrids, including distribution costs, is 332 million USD. This is equivalent to 1129 USD/per inhabitant. This amount does not account however the health and environment benefits that e-cooking can bring to inhabitants in Bolivian low-lands.
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| 5. |
- Beltramo, Agnese, et al.
(författare)
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The Global Least-cost User-friendly CLEWs Open-Source Exploratory model
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 143
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are important tools to analyse cross-sectoral interdependencies and the use of global resources. Most current tools are highly detailed and require expert knowledge and proprietary software to generate scenarios and analyse their insights. In this paper, the complementary Global Least-cost User-friendly CLEWs Open-Source Exploratory (GLUCOSE) model is presented as a highly-aggregated global IAM, open and accessible from source to solver and using the OSeMOSYS tool and the CLEWs framework. The model enables the exploration of policy measures on the future development of the integrated resource system. Thanks to its relatively simple structure, it requires low computational resources allowing for the generation of a large number of scenarios or to quickly conduct preliminary investigations. GLUCOSE is targeted towards education and training purposes by a range of interested parties, from students to stakeholders and decision-makers, to explore possible future pathways towards the sustainable management of global resources.
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| 6. |
- Brouwer, F., et al.
(författare)
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Energy modelling and the Nexus concept
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 19, s. 1-6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Nexus concept is the interconnection between the resources energy, water, food, land and climate. Such interconnections enable to address trade-offs and seek for synergies among them. Several policy areas (e.g. bio-based economy, circular economy) increasingly consider the Nexus concept. Ignoring synergies and trade-offs between energy and natural flows, can generate misleading modelling outcomes. Several modelling tools are available to address energy and the Nexus. Based on six such models, this paper aims to support the design and testing of coherent strategies for sustainable development. Model improvements would be achieved by comparing model outcomes and including a common baseline.
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| 7. |
- Dhakouani, A., et al.
(författare)
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Long-term optimisation model of the Tunisian power system
- 2017
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0360-5442 .- 1873-6785. ; 141, s. 550-562
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The electricity mix in Tunisia mainly relied on conventional energy sources for over 50 years. Recently, due to fossil fuel prices oscillations and national reserves shortage, the need arose for restructuring the energy supply system. Targeting the integration of renewable energies could be a plan for satisfying the increasing demand and the supply independence. However, several macroeconomic conditions and policies present barriers for the integration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), despite their abundance, availability and environmental benefits. This paper presents a long-term model of Tunisia electricity system, based on OSeMOSYS (Open Source energy MOdelling SYStem), aimed at unveiling potential benefits of increasing RES in electricity production. The paper first investigates peculiarities of Tunisia electricity system, arguing the necessity to include them in the electricity system model. Then, it explains the choice of OSeMOSYS and brought modifications, including peculiar system characteristics. Finally, the model is applied to two scenarios, a Business As Usual case and a 30% RES target in electricity production case, for time horizon 2010–2030. Results demonstrate the importance of system features detailed modelling. Specifically, they show that targeting RES state-invested integration in the electricity mix may allow higher energy independence to be reached, without increasing significantly system costs.
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| 8. |
- Dreier, Dennis, et al.
(författare)
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OSeMOSYS-PuLP : A Stochastic Modeling Framework for Long-Term Energy Systems Modeling
- 2019
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Ingår i: Energies. - : MDPI. - 1996-1073. ; 12:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent open-data movements give access to large datasets derived from real-world observations. This data can be utilized to enhance energy systems modeling in terms of heterogeneity, confidence, and transparency. Furthermore, it allows to shift away from the common practice of considering average values towards probability distributions. In turn, heterogeneity and randomness of the real-world can be captured that are usually found in large samples of real-world data. This paper presents a methodological framework for an empirical deterministic-stochastic modeling approach to utilize large real-world datasets in long-term energy systems modeling. A new software systemOSeMOSYS-PuLPwas developed and is available now.It adds the feature of Monte Carlo simulations to the existing open-source energy modeling system (the OSeMOSYS modeling framework). An application example is given, in which the initial application example of OSeMOSYS is used and modified to include real-world operation data from a public bus transport system.
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| 9. |
- Dreier, Dennis, 1990-
(författare)
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Transition Technologies for Electrification and Optimisation of Bus Transport Systems
- 2020
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The topical issue of climate change has increasingly become important as scenarios indicate an increase of 2.5–7.8°C in the global mean temperature by the end of this century, if no greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. The transport sector depends strongly on fossil fuels and has been therefore considered as one key sector concerning climate change mitigation. In this regard, a key role is played by cities, since progressing urbanisation will presumably lead to a higher demand for urban transport.This doctoral thesis addresses the transition phase of public bus transport systems by exploring electrification as a vector for decarbonisation. The C40-city of Curitiba in Southern Brazil is used as a case study. The research is of explorative and empirical nature. Quantitative research methods are applied to compare bus technologies as well as new optimisation models and planning tools are developed to support data analytics and research in the areas of simulation, optimisation and (long-term) planning of energy and transport systems at different levels of consideration.The results from the comparison of different buses show large potentials to save energy and reduce emissions during the operation phase, for example, when using hybrid-electric or plug-in hybrid-electric buses instead of conventional buses. Moreover, energy savings in the operation phase also imply avoidance of fuel production and supply. Additionally, electrified buses can also reduce operational uncertainty caused by varying driving cycles and fluctuating fuel prices concerning an absolute variation of both energy use and fuel cost in the operation phase.A real-time optimisation model was developed, and its concept tested to estimate potentials for energy savings and all-electric operation from the operational optimisation of a plug-in hybrid-electric bus fleet. Different management strategies were simulated concerning the charging schedule and all-electric operation of the bus fleet. While energy savings can be significantly increased through a structural change towards more electrified buses, a large potential to increase the total all-electric operation of the bus fleet was estimated through operational optimisation. Consequently, both a structural change and operational optimisation should be jointly applied to maximise the benefits gained from electrification in a bus transport system.The software system OSeMOSYS-PuLP was developed for empirical deterministic-stochastic modelling based on the OSeMOSYS modelling framework, which enables the use of a Monte Carlo simulation. The open source design of the tool shall enhance transparency and trustworthiness in studies. It is transferable to many cases and makes it possible for analysts and researchers to generate new sets of conclusions together with associated probability distributions considering the use of real-world datasets, e.g. from open data initiatives as the one in Curitiba.In summary, the research findings, applied methods and developed tools can be used to support and inform analysts and decision-makers in the area of transport and energy systems planning in data-driven decision-making processes to develop and assess different technological options and strategies at different levels while considering associated uncertainties.
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| 10. |
- Engström, Rebecka Ericsdotter, et al.
(författare)
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Connecting the resource nexus to basic urban service provision – with a focus on water-energy interactions in New York City
- 2017
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Ingår i: Sustainable cities and society. - : Elsevier. - 2210-6707. ; 31, s. 83-94
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Urban water and energy systems are crucial for sustainably meeting basic service demands in cities. This paper proposes and applies a technology-independent “reference resource-to-service system” framework for concurrent evaluation of urban water and energy system interventions and their ‘nexus’ or ‘interlinkages’. In a concrete application, data that approximate New York City conditions are used to evaluate a limited set of interventions in the residential sector, spanning from low-flow toilet shifts to extensive green roof installations. Results indicate that interventions motivated primarily by water management goals can considerably reduce energy use and contribute to mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Similarly, energy efficiency interventions can considerably reduce water use in addition to lowering emissions. However, interventions yielding the greatest reductions in energy use and emissions are not necessarily the most water conserving ones, and vice versa. Useful further research, expanding the present analysis should consider a broader set of resource interactions, towards a full climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) nexus approach. Overall, assessing the impacts, trade-offs and co-benefits from interventions in one urban resource system on others also holds promise as support for increased resource efficiency through integrated decision making.
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