| 1. |
- Tran, K. B., et al.
(författare)
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The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10352, s. 563-591
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 2. |
- Alvarez, E. M., et al.
(författare)
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The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1470-2045. ; 23:1, s. 27-52
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 3. |
- Wang, H. D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 4. |
- Ikuta, K. S., et al.
(författare)
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Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10369, s. 2221-2248
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes. Methods We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. Findings From an estimated 13.7 million (95% UI 10.9-17.1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7.7 million deaths (5.7-10.2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13.6% (10.2-18.1) of all global deaths and 56.2% (52.1-60.1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens-Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa-were responsible for 54.9% (52.9-56.9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185-285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52.2 deaths (37.4-71.5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths. Interpretation The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vaccines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development. Copyright (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 5. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
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Amplitude analysis of the D+ -> K-S(0)pi + (0)(pi) Dalitz plot
- 2014
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 89:5, s. 052001-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We perform an analysis of the D+ -> K-S(0)pi + (0)(pi) Dalitz plot using a data set of 2.92 fb(-1) of e(+) e(-) collisions at the (3770) mass accumulated by the BESIII experiment, in which 166694 candidate events are selected with a background of 15.1%. The Dalitz plot is found to be well represented by a combination of six quasitwo- body decay channels [k(SP)(0)(+) (1450)(+,) ] plus a small nonresonant component. Using the fit fractions from this analysis, partial branching ratios are updated with higher precision than previous measurements.
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| 6. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
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Measurement of chi(cJ) decaying into eta ' K+K-
- 2014
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 89:7, s. 074030-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using (106.41 +/- 0.86) x 10(6) Psi(3686) events collected with the BESIII detector at BEPCII, we study for the first time the decay chi(cJ) -> eta'K+K- (J = 1, 2), where eta' -> gamma rho(0) and eta' -> eta pi(+)pi(-). A partial wave analysis in the covariant tensor amplitude formalism is performed for the decay chi(c1) -> eta'K+K-. Intermediate processes chi(c1) -> eta'f(2)'(1525) chi(c1) -> K-0*(1430)K-+/-(-/+) (K-0*(1430)(+/-) -> eta'K-+/-) are observed with statistical significances larger than 5 sigma, and their branching fractions are measured.
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| 7. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
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Measurement of the branching fraction for psi(3686) -> omega K+K-
- 2014
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 89:11, s. 112006-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With 1.06 x 10(8) psi(3686) events collected with the BESIII detector, the branching fraction of psi(3686) -> omega K+K- is measured to be (1.54 +/- 0.04 +/- 0.11) x 10(-4). This is the most precise result to date, due to the largest psi(3686) sample, improved signal reconstruction efficiency, good simulation of the detector performance, and a more accurate knowledge of the continuum contribution. Using the branching fraction of J/psi -> omega K+K-, the ratio B(psi(3868) -> K+K-)/B(J/psi -> K+K-) is determined to be (18.4 +/- 3.7)%. This constitutes a significantly improved test of the 12% rule, with the uncertainty now dominated by the J/psi branching fraction.
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| 8. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
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Observation of an Anomalous Line Shape of the eta 'pi(+)pi(-) Mass Spectrum near the p(p)over-bar Mass Threshold in J/psi -> gamma eta 'pi(+)pi(-)
- 2016
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 117:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using 1.09 x 10(9) J/psi events collected by the BESIII experiment in 2012, we study the J / psi -> gamma eta'pi(+)pi(-) process and observe a significant abrupt change in the slope of the eta'pi(+)pi(-) invariant mass distribution at the proton-antiproton (p (p) over bar) mass threshold. We use two models to characterize the eta'pi(+)pi(-) line shape around 1.85 GeV/c(2): one that explicitly incorporates the opening of a decay threshold in the mass spectrum (Flatte formula), and another that is the coherent sum of two resonant amplitudes. Both fits show almost equally good agreement with data, and suggest the existence of either a broad state around 1.85 GeV/c(2) with strong couplings to the c final states or a narrow state just below the p (p) over bar mass threshold. Although we cannot distinguish between the fits, either one supports the existence of a p (p) over bar moleculelike state or bound state with greater than 7 sigma significance.
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| 9. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
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Observation of eta' -> pi(+) pi(-) pi(+) pi(-) and eta' -> pi(+) pi(-) pi(0) pi(0)
- 2014
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 112:25, s. 251801-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using a sample of 1.3 x 10(9) J/psi events collected with the BESIII detector, we report the first observation of eta' -> pi(+) pi(-) pi(+) pi(-) and eta' -> pi(+) pi(-) pi(0) pi(0). The measured branching fractions are B(eta' -> pi(+) pi(-) pi(+) pi(-)) = [8.53 +/- 0.69(stat.) +/- 0.64(syst.)] x 10(-5) and B(eta' -> pi(+) pi(-) pi(0) pi(0)) = [1.82 +/- 0.35(stat.) +/- 0.18(syst.)] x 10(-4), which are consistent with theoretical predictions based on a combination of chiral perturbation theory and vector-meson dominance.
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| 10. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
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Observation of J/psi -> p(p)over-bara(0)(980) at BESIII
- 2014
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 90:5, s. 052009-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using 2.25 x 10(8) J/psi events collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII storage rings, we observe for the first time the process J/psi -> p (p) over bara(0)(980) -> pi(0)eta with a significance of 6.5 sigma (3.2 sigma including systematic uncertainties). The product branching fraction of J/psi -> p (p) over bara(0)(980) -> p (p) over bara(0)pi(0)eta is measured to be (6.8 +/- 1.2 +/- 1.3) x 10(-5), where the first error is statistical and the second is systematic. This measurement provides information on the a(0) production near threshold coupling to p (p) over bar and improves the understanding of the dynamics of J/psi decays to four-body processes.
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