| 1. |
- Ericson, Marika, 1977-
(författare)
-
On the Virtual Borderline: Cyber Operations and their Impact on the Paradigms for Peace and War : Aspects of International and Swedish Domestic Law
- 2020
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Contemporary disputes between states contain elements of psychological and information operations, intelligence operations and cyber operations as well as methods for physical use of force. Cyber operations may use, or contribute to, all of these different techniques and methods combined and can be focused on intelligence gathering, preparation of networks for future attacks, sabotage or on preventing access to information. States are also not alone as actors in cyberspace, non-state actors are continuously updating and reinforcing their abilities and capabilities and the dividing line between cyber operations that are a crime conducted by a non-state criminal and operations conducted by states have become increasingly blurred.International law, and Swedish domestic law, is built up around two foundational paradigms for peace and war. The paradigms are founded on the concepts of statehood, sovereignty and security. Situations, especially threats to states, are to be sorted into either the paradigm for peace or the paradigm for war and are through the division into paradigms also regulated by separate legal frameworks. There is in law no acknowledged state in between.This thesis explores the virtual borderlines of the paradigms for peace and war. It suggests that cyber operations is one development challenging the paradigms for peace and war. It further suggests that states are beginning to form their responses to cyber operations. States are defining cyberspace in terms of territory and sovereignty and they play on thresholds for breaches of sovereignty, interventions and use of force. They in essence structure and argue for a legal space in between the paradigms for peace and war.The thesis also takes the findings from research conducted on international law and views the findings from a Swedish domestic law perspective. Sweden adheres to a strict division of threats and situations into paradigms for peace and war. There is no state of emergency in Swedish constitutional law, the paradigm for peace is applied fully until a situation is defined as war or danger of war. The question for law is how to make this bipolar system function where threats cannot be sorted into either peace or war anymore.
|
|
| 2. |
- Andersson, Kent, 1967-
(författare)
-
On the Military Utility of Spectral Design in Signature Management : a Systems Approach
- 2018
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- There is an ongoing duel between military sensor development and developments in signature management. The last decade, with warfare characterized by joint expeditionary operations and asymmetry, has favored sensors. However, on account of the worsening security situation in Europe, there is now also an increasing interest in efforts to increase survivability of own military platforms. Spectral design is one of several promising technologies with extensive research potentially suitable for Low Observable platforms. It involves creating desired spectral optical responses from surfaces, in this case reducing contrast to background, by choosing suitable materials and structures. The challenge to a military decision-maker, faced with inherent uncertainties concerning the future and with limited resources, is how to choose among alternative capabilities, technologies or equipment. Correspondingly, on account of the system character of the signature attribute, researchers in technologies for signature management has difficulties communicating relevant basis for these decisions. The scope of this thesis is therefore to find and analyze patterns in decision situations involving technology or technical systems for military use, and the purpose is to propose conceptual and methodological contributions to support future decisionmaking. The technology focus is on spectral design and the application in focus is signature management of Low Observable military platforms. The research objective is addressed from a military system and capability centric perspective using methods from several disciplines in the military sciences domain. The result is synthesized from four separate studies: 1) on spectral design using systematic review of literature, 2) on military utility using a concept formation method, 3) on modeling for how to operationalize a link between spectral design and measures of military utility using methods of military operations research, and, 4) on cases of systems engineering of military Low Observable platform designs. In summary, the result of the work presented in this thesis is a compilation of related work in military sciences, systems engineering and material optics into a framework to support effective decision-making in relevant contexts. The major contribution to theory is a proposed concept called Military Utility, capturing how to communicate the utility of technical systems, or technology, in a military context. It is a compound measure of Military Effectiveness, Military Suitability and Affordability. Other contributions can be expected to support decision-making in practice; - the so-called Ladder-model is a template for how to quantitatively operationalize the military effectiveness dimension of Military Utility regarding the use of spectral design; - an applied Ladder-model is demonstrated, useful for analyzing the military utility of spectral designs in Low Observable attack aircraft; - a probabilistic framework for survivability assessments is adopted into a methodology for doing the analysis, and lastly; - a generic workflow is identified, from relevant development programs, including decision-situations that can benefit from the adopted methodology.
|
|
| 3. |
- Bang, Martin
(författare)
-
Military intelligence analysis : institutional influence
- 2017
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Intelligence is vital for the outcome of battles. As long as humans wage war, there will be a need for decision support to military and civilian leaders regarding adversaries or potential adversaries. However, the production of intelligence is neither easy nor without pitfalls. There is a need to better understand the predicaments of intelligence analysis.Intelligence is bureaucratically produced as well as socially constructed and created in a distinct cultural context. The ‘institution’ captures these three aspects of influence. Therefore, with a particular focus on military intelligence, this thesis aims to deepen the understanding regarding institutional influence on intelligence assessments. The literature regarding intelligence has grown steadily over the last three decades. However, theories and frameworks aimed to understand the phenomenon are still sparse. This is even more true for literature regarding contemporary military intelligence. This thesis intends to contribute to bridging these research gaps. This is done by studying the Swedish military intelligence institution from several different perspectives: its rules-in-use, shared beliefs, and the incoming stimuli primarily related to conducting threat assessments.More precisely the thesis investigates the use of quantitative methods, doctrines (i.e. the formal rules), and shared beliefs connected to epistemological assumptions and threat assessments. The main contribution of this thesis is that it establishes and describes a casual link between a military intelligence institution and an assessment, by drawing upon rulesin-use and belief systems and their effect on the mental model and consequently the perception of the situation connected to a cognitive bias, and thereby its effect on a given assessment. The thesis makes an effort to render intelligence studies more generalizable, by way of adopting the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework. The metatheoretical language of the IAD is a promising avenue for explaining and describing the institutional influence on intelligence assessments.
|
|
| 4. |
- Hult, Gunnar, Professor, 1952-, et al.
(författare)
-
Technology Forecast 2021 – Military Utility of Future Technologies
- 2021
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- For the purpose of Technology Forecast 2021 five reports from the German Fraunhofer Institute were chosen by FMV (and SwAF) and given to Systems Science for Defence and Security Division to analyse and assess within the timeframe up to 2040.The following research reports were reviewed by the working group at SEDU:· Adversarial Machine Learning · High Entropy Ceramics· Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicles· Living Sensors· Machine Learning in Materials DevelopmentThe aim of the Technology Forecast seminars and the finished product, this report, is to assess the potential military utility of the reviewed technologies and how they may contribute to the Swedish Armed Forces’ operational capabilities based on the presented concept(s) and scenario(s). The military utility is categorised by one of four assessments: Significant, Moderate, Negligible or Uncertain.The following technologies were assessed to potentially have significant military utility:· High Entropy Ceramics· Machine Learning in Materials Development· Adversarial Machine LearningThe following technology was assessed to potentially have moderate military utility:· Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicles The following technology was assessed to have uncertain military utility:· Living Sensors
|
|
| 5. |
- Hult, Gunnar, Professor, 1952-, et al.
(författare)
-
Technology Forecast 2022 – Military Utility of Future Technologies
- 2022
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- For the purpose of Technology Forecast 2022 five reports from the German Fraunhofer Institute were chosen by FMV (and SwAF) and given to the Department of Systems Science for Defence and Security to analyse and assess within the timeframe up to 2040.The following research reports were reviewed by the working group at SEDU:· AI Hardware · Explainable Artificial Intelligence· Human-Agent Teaming· Photonic Radar· Satellite Independent Navigation The aim of the Technology Forecast seminars and the finished product, this report, is to assess the potential military utility of the reviewed technologies and how they may contribute to the Swedish Armed Forces’ operational capabilities based on the presented concept(s) and scenario(s). The military utility is categorised by one of four assessments: Significant, Moderate, Negligible or Uncertain. The following technologies were assessed to potentially have significant military utility:· Explainable Artificial Intelligence· Human-Agent Teaming· Photonic RadarThe following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility:· AI Hardware · Satellite Independent Navigation
|
|
| 6. |
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
-
Technology Forecast 2017 - Military Utility of Future Technologies : A Report from Seminars at the Swedish Defence University’s (SEDU) Military-Technology Division
- 2017
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Two technology forecast reports from the Fraunhofer Institute, three reports from the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and two publications from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have been reviewed by staff at the Military-Technology Division at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU). The task given by the Defence Material Administration (FMV) was to assess the military utility of the given technologies in a time frame to up 2040, from a Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF) perspective.In the review we assessed the military utility of certain technologies as possible contributions to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, based on identified and relevant scenarios. Because a new capability catalogue is under development at the SwAF Headquarters, this report only presents general assessments of the capability impact of the technologies studied.The technologies were grouped into four classes: potentially significant, moderate, negligible, or uncertain military utility.The classification uncertain military utility was given to technologies that are difficult to put in the other three classes, it was not because the technology readiness level (TRL) will not bereached by 2040.The following technologies were assessed to have the potential for significant military utility:- Nanocarbons for photonic applicationsThe following technologies were assessed to have a potential for moderate military utility;- Internet of things (IoT)- Materials and technologies for protection against chemical agentsThe following technologies were assessed to have uncertain military utility;- Post-quantum cryptography- New applications for hyperspectral image analysis for chemical and biological agentsNo technology was found to have negligible military utility.The method used in this technology forecast report was to assign each report to one reviewer in the working group. Firstly, each forecast report was summarized. The Fraunhofer assessment of technical readiness level (TRL) in the time period was held to be correct. Each technology was then put into one or more scenarios that were assessed to be suitable for assessing the military utility as well as indicating any possibilities and drawbacks. Based on a SWOTanalysis, the assessed contributions to the fundamental capabilities, and to the factors DOTMPLFI (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability), were listed. Furthermore, the expected SwAF R&D requirements, to facilitate the introduction of the technology are given. The Military utility was assessed using a model developed by the Military-Technology Division. Finally, conclusions and an overall rating of the potential military utility of each technology were presented.The chosen definition of military utility clearly affects the result of the study. The definition used here (“the military utility of a certain technology is its contribution to the operational capabilities of the SwAF, within identified relevant scenarios”) has been used in our Technology Forecasts since 2013.Our evaluation of the method used shows that there is a risk that assessments can be biased by the participating experts’ presumptions and experience from their own field of research. It should also be stressed that the seven technologies’ potential military utility was assessed within the specific presented scenarios and their possible contribution to operational capabilities within those specific scenarios, not in general. When additional results have been found in the analysis, this is mentioned.The greatest value of the method used is its simplicity, cost effectiveness and that it promotes learning within the working group. The composition of the working group and the methodology used are believed to provide a broad and balanced coverage of the technologies being studied. This report should be seen as an executive summary of the research reports and the intention is to help the SwAF Headquarters to evaluate the military utility of emerging technologies within identified relevant scenarios.Overall, the research reports are considered to be balanced and of high quality in terms of their level of critical analysis regarding technology development. These reports are in line with our task to evaluate the military utility of the emerging technologies.
|
|
