| 1. |
- Bausch, Thomas, et al.
(author)
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Does Climate Change Influence Guest Loyalty at Alpine Winter Destinations?
- 2019
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In: Sustainability. - : MDPI. - 2071-1050. ; 11:15, s. 1-22
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Research has dealt extensively with different aspects of climate change and winter tourism such as the impact on ski resorts and ski lift operators, adaptation strategies, governance at destinations and reactions of winter sports guests to changing snow conditions. This paper goes deeper into the question of destination choice and examines the role of climate change among the many factors affecting guest loyalty at Alpine winter destinations. The study uses an established destination choice model with choice sets, destination image and dynamic feedback loop. A qualitative online forum identifies factors influencing winter destination choice, followed by a quantitative survey which compares Alpine winter holidaymakers categorised as loyal, disloyal and undecided. The results demonstrate that climate change clearly influences destination choice, but snow sports are not the only affected attractors. Enjoyment of the natural environment and value for money are just as high on the list of guest motivators. This indicates that climate change adaptation measures such as snowmaking can be counterproductive to guest loyalty because they spoil the natural scenery and raise prices. The paper concludes with a recommendation for winter destinations to prioritize conservation of the natural environment and integrate more environmental protection measures into their management strategies.
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| 2. |
- Gössling, Stefan, et al.
(author)
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A global review of marine air pollution policies, their scope and effectiveness
- 2021
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In: Ocean and Coastal Management. - : Elsevier. - 0964-5691 .- 1873-524X. ; 212
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Shipping is associated with various environmental impacts, such as pollutants discharged to air and sea. Much of this pollution appears to be unregulated, and global emissions from shipping are expected to more than triple between 2020 and 2050. This paper reviews global, national, regional and port-level legislative approaches that have been implemented to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxides (NOx), sulphur oxides (SOx) and particulate matter (PM). Policies are identified on the basis of a systematic review of the literature in combination with a detailed analysis of the respective global, national and local policy initiatives. Findings suggest that many policies are voluntary or, in ports, incentive-based; regulatory approaches are largely limited to Emission Control Areas. Policies also focus on efficiencies, they are not concerned with absolute pollutant and greenhouse gas levels. No policies incentivizing or forcing the transition to zero-carbon fuels were identified. As ports can define limits to pollution, for instance by demanding shore power use, they can significantly affect the clean development of the sector. Further legislation will be needed nationally to counterbalance the lack of supranational ambition on pollutants and climate change mitigation.
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| 3. |
- Gössling, Stefan, et al.
(author)
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Are emissions from global air transport significantly underestimated?
- 2024
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In: Current Issues in Tourism. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 1368-3500 .- 1747-7603.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Air transport is energy-intense, and considerable attention has been paid to the sector's use of fuel and emissions of greenhouse gases. Commercial aviation is believed to currently emit about 1 Gt CO2 per year, if considering global bunker fuel use (scope 1 in the Greenhouse Gas Protocol). A growing database is becoming available on scope 1-3 emissions; this is, including up- and downstream emissions, and it is now possible to assess the aviation system's carbon intensity more comprehensively. This paper investigates the annual reports of 26 of the largest airlines in the world by market capitalisation, finding that reporting on emissions for scopes 1-3 is still inconsistent and characterised by reporting gaps. Yet, available data suggests that scope 3 emissions are significant (about 30% of scope 1 emissions). These findings have repercussions for the sector's net-zero ambitions, climate governance, consumer choices and air transport finance, as the overall contribution from air travel to climate change remains underestimated. Results suggest that it is in the sector's interest to present robust, transparent, consistent and accurate emission inventories - and to engage with the implications.
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| 4. |
- Gössling, Stefan, et al.
(author)
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COVID-19 and pathways to low-carbon air transport until 2050
- 2021
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In: Environmental Research Letters. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 1748-9326. ; 16:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented decline in global air transport and associated reduction in CO2 emissions. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) reacted by weakening its own CO2-offsetting rules. Here we investigate whether the pandemic can be an opportunity to bring the sector on a reliable low-carbon trajectory, with a starting point in the observed reduction in air transport demand. We model a COVID-19 recovery based on a feed-in quota for non-biogenic synthetic fuels that will decarbonize fuels by 2050, as well as a carbon price to account for negative externalities and as an incentive to increase fuel efficiency. Results suggest that until 2050, air transport demand will continue to grow, albeit slower than in ICAO's recovery scenarios, exceeding 2018 demand by 3.7-10.3 trillion RPK. Results show that synthetic fuels, produced by 14-20 EJ of photovoltaic energy, would make it possible to completely phase out fossil fuels and to avoid emissions of up to 26.5 Gt CO2 over the period 2022-2050.
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| 5. |
- Gössling, Stefan, et al.
(author)
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Does 'flight shame' affect social norms? : Changing perspectives on the desirability of air travel in Germany
- 2020
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In: Journal of Cleaner Production. - : Elsevier. - 0959-6526 .- 1879-1786. ; 266, s. 1-10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- 'Flight shame' describes an unease about the climate implications of air travel, and bears evidence of a change in social norms that have so far associated flying with social status. This paper discusses whether Fridays for Future demonstrations and ensuing flight shame have influenced social norms regarding the desirability of air travel, and whether this is measurable in a decline in air travel, or policy support for measures curbing emissions from aviation. These aspects are discussed on the basis of German flight statistics and an online panel survey (n = 1002) conducted in August 2019 in Germany. Results show that, against a background of falling domestic air transport demand, respondents do not report a significant change in travel behaviour. However, a two-third majority of respondents indicate support for market-based measures increasing the cost of flying, as well as policies forcing airlines to reduce emissions and legislation abolishing subsidies. These findings point at an ongoing change in social norms, which could be reinforced if policymakers took advantage of public support for ambitious climate policies. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 6. |
- Gössling, Stefan, et al.
(author)
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Effects of Perceived Traffic Risks, Noise, and Exhaust Smells on Bicyclist Behaviour : An Economic Evaluation
- 2019
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In: Sustainability. - : MDPI. - 2071-1050. ; 11:2, s. 1-15
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Active mode (walking, bicycling, and their variants) users are exposed to various negative externalities from motor vehicle traffic, including injury risks, noise, and air pollutants. This directly harms the users of these modes and discourages their use, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of less active travel, more motorized travel, and more harmful effects. These impacts are widely recognized but seldom quantified. This study evaluates these impacts and their consequences by measuring the additional distances that bicyclists travel in order to avoid roads with heavy motor vehicle traffic, based on a sample of German-Austrian bicycle organization members (n = 491), and monetizes the incremental costs. The results indicate that survey respondents cycle an average 6.4% longer distances to avoid traffic impacts, including injury risks, air, and noise pollution. Using standard monetization methods, these detours are estimated to impose private costs of at least Euro0.24/cycle-km, plus increased external costs when travellers shift from non-motorized to motorized modes. Conventional transport planning tends to overlook these impacts, resulting in overinvestment in roadway expansions and underinvestments in other types of transport improvements, including sidewalks, crosswalks, bikelanes, paths, traffic calming, and speed reductions. These insights should have importance for transport planning and economics.
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| 7. |
- Gössling, Stefan, et al.
(author)
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Keeping older people mobile : Autonomous transport services in rural areas
- 2023
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In: Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives (TRIP). - : Elsevier. - 2590-1982. ; 18
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Rural areas are characterized by limited access to public transportation. In the absence of alternatives, many older people continue to drive private cars. This imposes risks on society and older people, as traffic risks increase with declining mental and physical health. As opportunities to remain mobile have key relevance for quality of life, this paper investigates attitudes of older people to autonomous transport services (ATS), based on a sample of n = 2,349 respondents living in rural and urban areas in Freiburg, Germany. ATS are not currently available, though they are expected to follow the introduction of automated driving, thus representing a future to alternative to public transport and private car travel. Results show an openness to the use of autonomous transport services for a majority of >65 year olds, though interest declines with age. Neither willingness-to-pay nor waiting times to ATS arrival are likely barriers to adoption. The study concludes that an introduction of ATS that targets older people in rural areas is promising, and will generate social and economic benefits for individuals and society. The transition from private cars to ATS can be supported by mandatory license renewal (fitness) tests. These are welcomed by a large majority of respondents, but not currently required in Germany.
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| 8. |
- Gössling, Stefan, et al.
(author)
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Millionaire spending incompatible with 1.5 °C ambitions
- 2023
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In: Cleaner Production Letters. - : Elsevier. - 2666-7916. ; 4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Much evidence suggests that the wealthiest individuals contribute disproportionally to climate change. Here we study the implications of a continued growth in the number of millionaires for emissions, and its impact on the depletion of the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5 °C (about 400 Gt CO2). To this end, we present a model that extrapolates observed growth in millionaire numbers (1990–2020) and associated changes in emissions to 2050. Our findings suggest that the share of US$2020-millionaires in the world population will grow from 0.7% today to 3.3% in 2050, and cause accumulated emissions of 286 Gt CO2. This is equivalent to 72% of the remaining carbon budget, and significantly reduces the chance of stabilizing climate change at 1.5 °C. Continued growth in emissions at the top makes a low-carbon transition less likely, as the acceleration of energy consumption by the wealthiest is likely beyond the system's capacity to decarbonize. To this end, we question whether policy designs such as progressive taxes targeting the high emitters will be sufficient.
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| 9. |
- Gössling, Stefan, et al.
(author)
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National tourism organizations and climate change
- 2024
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In: Tourism Geographies. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 1461-6688 .- 1470-1340.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- There is a consensus that the global tourism system needs to undergo decarbonization and achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. However, given the anticipated growth in the most energy-intensive subsector of tourism, air transport, achieving this goal seems unlikely. This paper focuses on the role of distance in the global geography of tourism, against evidence that National Marketing Organizations (NTOs) often seek to attract visitors from all over the world. The analysis of data for a sample of 12 NTOs in Europe, the USA and Canada reveals that the number of markets targeted varies between six and 33, with significant differences in the average distance to markets (<4,000 to 8,000 km), as well as emissions per arrival by market (0.2 t CO2 to 2.5 t CO2). For the countries studied, the 17% of the most distant arrivals cause 62% of the emissions. Results also show that more distant markets are more sensitive to disruptions such as COVID-19. These findings have relevance for destination marketing that point to new climate change related roles for NTOs such as rebranding, demarketing, market segmentation, and communication.
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| 10. |
- Gössling, Stefan, et al.
(author)
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Net-zero aviation : Time for a new business model?
- 2023
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In: Journal of Air Transport Management. - : Elsevier. - 0969-6997 .- 1873-2089. ; 107
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Recent years have seen vivid debate on decarbonizing aviation. Carbon-neutral flight is characterized by various barriers, however: Key transition technologies are in early stages of technology readiness, their scalability is uncertain, and airlines are not profitable. The replacement of fossil fuels will demand drop-in quota legislation at a global scale. This paper discusses the implications of continued growth in light of the sector's financial situation. It models the cost of biomass-based and non-biogenic synthetic (electric) fuels in combination with carbon taxes. Findings serve as a basis for the assessment of aviation's likelihood of achieving net-zero emissions without addressing growth. If the current business model - volume growth with very small profit margins - is continued, it is likely that aviation's contribution to climate change will grow, due to constraints in biofuel production, cost, and an increase in non-CO2 warming. To stay within 1.5 degrees C warming, the sector has to reassess capacity and its relationship with profitability; and to possibly embrace an altogether different business model.
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