| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Chowdhury, Mohammad Rocky Khan, et al.
(författare)
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Differences in risk factors associated with single and multiple concurrent forms of undernutrition (stunting, wasting, or underweight) among children under 5 in Bangladesh : A nationally representative cross-sectional study
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: The current study aims at differentiating the risk factors of cooccurrence and the single dimension of undernutrition among under-5 children in Bangladesh. Design: A nationally representative cross-sectional study. Setting: Bangladesh.Participants: Children age under 5 years of age. Outcome measure: A child is considered to have cooccurrence of undernutrition if he/she has either coexistence of stunting and underweight; wasting and underweight at the same time or the coexistence of stunting, wasting, and underweight. Also, a child with a single dimension of undernutrition includes having stunting, wasting, and being underweight independently.Methods: A Chi-square test was used to assess the prevalence of undernutrition. Odds ratio (OR) and confidence interval (CI) of potential risk factors were quantified using logistic regression analysis. Results: Two out of five under-5 children are suffering undernutrition in Bangladesh. The prevalence of cooccurrence and the single dimension of child undernutrition in Bangladesh was 19.3% (95% CI: 18.2, 20.5) and 18.9 (95% CI:17.9, 19.7) respectively. The key risk factors of cooccurrence of undernutrition were children born with small birth weight [AOR-3.40, 95% CI-2.52, 5.57], socio-economically poorest households [AOR-2.29, 95% CI-1.74, 3.01] and children age group 48-59 months [AOR-2.18, 95% CI-1.80, 2.63], on the other hand, children age group 12-23 months [AOR-161, 95% CI-1.35, 1.92], socio-economically poorer households [AOR-1.41, 95% CI-1.09, 1.82] and paternal illiteracy [AOR-1.19, 95% CI-1.01, 1.42] was significantly associated with single dimension of undernutrition. Conclusion: One-fifth of the children are suffering cooccurrence of undernutrition and that is similar as measured by the single dimension of undernutrition. Parental education, mother’s undernutrition status, father’s employment status, children’s age, birth order, and small birth are the main differentiating risk factors of cooccurrence and the single dimension of undernutrition among under-5 children in Bangladesh which should be taken into consideration to formulate an evidence-based strategy to reduce undernutrition among under-5 children.
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| 4. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2021
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 20:10, s. 795-820
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12.2 million (95% UI 11.0-13.6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93.2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6.55 million (6.00-7.02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11.6% [10.8-12.2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5.7% [5.1-6.2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70.0% (67.0-73.0), prevalent strokes increased by 85.0% (83.0-88.0), deaths from stroke increased by 43.0% (31.0-55.0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32.0% (22.0-42.0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17.0% (15.0-18.0), mortality decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0), prevalence decreased by 6.0% (5.0-7.0), and DALYs decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22.0% (21.0-24.0) and incidence rates increased by 15.0% (12.0-18.0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3.6 (3.5-3.8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3.7 (3.5-3.9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62.4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7.63 million [6.57-8.96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27.9% (3.41 million [2.97-3.91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9.7% (1.18 million [1.01-1.39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79.6 million [67.7-90.8] DALYs or 55.5% [48.2-62.0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34.9 million [22.3-48.6] DALYs or 24.3% [15.7-33.2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28.9 million [19.8-41.5] DALYs or 20.2% [13.8-29.1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28.7 million [23.4-33.4] DALYs or 20.1% [16.6-23.0]), and smoking (25.3 million [22.6-28.2] DALYs or 17.6% [16.4-19.0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.
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| 5. |
- Islam, Md. Zahidul, et al.
(författare)
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Determinants of low birth weight and its effect on childhood health and nutritional outcomes in Bangladesh
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition. - : Springer. - 1606-0997 .- 2072-1315. ; 43
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The high incidence of low birth weight (LBW) is associated with an increased risk of infant mortality, adverse pregnancy outcomes for mothers, and a decline in overall health and well-being. The current study aimed to identify the various determinants of LBW and its effect on adverse health and nutritional outcomes of children aged 0-23 months in Bangladesh. Methods: Bangladesh Demography and Health Survey (BDHS) 2017-18 data was used. A chi-square test and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to find out the associations between independent variables and outcomes (e.g., LBW, child illness and undernutrition).Results: The overall prevalence of LBW among was 16.3%. Mother with no formal education (AOR=2.64, 95% CI= 0.55-3.30, p= 0.01), female child (AOR=1.31, 95% CI= 1.04-1.65, p=0.023); and poorest economic status (AOR= 1.69, 95% CI= 1.13-2.51, p=0.010), were identified significant determinants of LBW. Of home environment and hygiene factors, unimproved toilet facilities (AOR= 1.38, 95% CI= 1.03-1.84, p= 0.030) had a significant effect on LBW. In addition, children born with LBW were more likely to suffer fever (AOR=1.26, 95% CI= 1.05-1.60, p= 0.050), stunting (AOR=2.42, 95% CI= 1.86-3.15, p= <0.001), wasting (AOR=1.47, 95% CI= 1.02-2.25 p= 0.049), and underweight (AOR=3.19, 95% CI= 2.40-4.23, p= <0.001). Conclusion: One out of five children was LBW in Bangladesh. Maternal education, sex of child, wealth index, and toilet facilities had significant effects on LBW. In addition, LWB contributed to children’s poor health and nutritional outcomes. Enhancing maternal pregnancy, and child health outcomes necessitates policies addressing poverty, gender inequality, and social disparities. Key strategies include promoting regular prenatal care, early medical intervention, reproductive health education, and safe hygiene practices. To combat the negative impacts of LBW, a comprehensive strategy is vital, encompassing exclusive breastfeeding, nutritional support, growth monitoring, accessible healthcare, and caregiver education.
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| 6. |
- Salwa, Marium, et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of risk perception and risk communication regarding COVID-19 among healthcare providers: An explanatory sequential mixed-method study in Bangladesh
- 2022
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Ingår i: F1000 Research. - : Faculty of 1000 Ltd.. - 2046-1402. ; 9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Any public health emergency demands adequate risk communication with the vulnerable population along with their optimized perception about the impending risk to ensure proper risk management and crisis control. Hence, this study will be conducted to explore healthcare providers’ perceptions regarding risks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), as well as how they are being communicated to about the risk, and how they practice risk reduction measures.Methods: A two-phased explanatory sequential mixed-method study will be conducted among physicians and nurses from randomly selected tertiary healthcare facilities in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. In the first phase, the general pattern and quantifiable measures of risk perception, risk communication, and infection prevention practices will be assessed quantitatively. Multiple linear regression analyses will be performed to explore how much variability of risk perception is predicted by risk communication methods and contents. In the second phase, qualitative data will be collected for in-depth understanding and exploration of participants’ experiences and insights regarding COVID-19 risk through interviews and document reviews. Thematic content analysis of the qualitative data will be done manually. Findings from both quantitative and qualitative phases will then be triangulated to illustrate the research objectives.Discussion: Based on the psychometric dimensions of risk perception and psycho-social theory of the health belief model, perception of COVID-19 risk among healthcare providers will be evaluated in this study. The relationship between risk perception and infection prevention and control practices among healthcare providers will also be investigated. The explanatory sequential design of this study is expected to generate hypotheses on how risk perception is being shaped in a time of uncertainty and thus, will help to build a proper risk communication strategy to minimize risk perception among healthcare providers.
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| 7. |
- Salwa, Marium, et al.
(författare)
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Compliance of healthcare workers with the infection prevention and control guidance in tertiary care hospitals : quantitative findings from an explanatory sequential mixed-methods study in Bangladesh
- 2022
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2044-6055. ; 12:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives To assess healthcare workers' (HCWs) compliance with the infection prevention and control (IPC) practices and identify the factors influencing this compliance using the Health Belief Model as the theoretical framework. Design Quantitative data from an explanatory sequential mixed-methods study were employed in this research. Participants and settings From 17 May to 30 August 2020, 604 physicians and nurses working at six randomly selected tertiary care facilities in Dhaka City in Bangladesh took part in this study. Primary and secondary outcome measures Compliance with the WHO's guidance on IPC measures, as well as the associated factors, was the primary outcome. Results A mean compliance score of 0.49 (+/- 0.25) was observed on a 0-1 scale. HCWs were most compliant with the medical mask wearing guidelines (81%) and were least compliant with the high-touch surface decontamination regulations (23%). Compliance with the IPC guidance was significantly associated with increasing age, female sex, working as a nurse, having non-communicable diseases and history of exposure to patients with COVID-19. Perceived benefits (B=0.039, 95% CI 0.001 to 0.076), self-efficacy (B=0.101, 95% CI 0.060 to 0.142) and cues to action (B=0.045, 95% CI 0.002 to 0.088) were positively associated with compliance. Compliance with IPC guidance was 0.061 times greater among participants who reported low perceived barriers compared with those with high perceived barriers. Conclusion Overall, compliance with IPC guidance among HCWs was unsatisfactory. As self-efficacy exerted the greatest contribution to compliance, it should be emphasised in any endeavour to improve HCWs' IPC adherence. Such interventions should also focus on perceived barriers, including unreliability of the information sources, unsafe working places and unavailability of protective equipment and cues to action, including trust in the administration and availability of adequate IPC guidance.
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| 8. |
- Shariful Islam, Md, et al.
(författare)
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Cigarette smoking and associated factors among men in five South Asian countries: A pooled analysis of nationally representative surveys
- 2022
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : PLoS. - 1932-6203. ; 17:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Smoking is one of the leading causes of premature deaths worldwide. The cigarette is the commonest form of tobacco smoking. This study investigated the factors associated with cigarette smoking among men in five South Asian countries. We analyzed nationally representative cross-sectional study (Demographic and Health Survey) data conducted in Afghanistan, India, Maldives, Nepal, and Pakistan from 2015–2018. Our study population was men aged between 15 and 49 years. The outcome variable was the prevalence of cigarette smoking. We performed both pooled and country-specific analyses using multivariable logistic regression. The prevalence of cigarette smoking among men is the highest (41.2%) in the Maldives and the lowest (20.1%) in Pakistan. Our pooled analysis found that higher age, lower education, lower wealth status, and involvement in any occupations were strongly associated with cigarette smoking (p-value <0.001). However, we did not find a significant association between age and wealth status in Afghanistan, occupations in Nepal and Pakistan, and education in Pakistan with cigarette smoking when country-specific analyses were performed. In this study, socioeconomic position, age, and urban area are strongly associated with cigarette smoking in South Asian countries. The country-specific circumstances should be considered in planning and designing national smoking control strategies and interventions. However, improving access to smoking cessation services could be an effective intervention for all studied countries, Afghanistan, India, Maldives, Nepal, and Pakistan.
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| 9. |
- Barber, R. M., et al.
(författare)
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Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 10. |
- Begum, Ruhena, et al.
(författare)
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Heavy metal contamination in retailed food in Bangladesh : a dietary public health risk assessment
- 2023
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2571-581X. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IntroductionContamination with heavy and toxic metals along the food value chain is a public health concern in Bangladesh. MethodsIn this study, 608 fish and chicken samples from traditional and modern retail outlets in urban, peri-urban, and rural areas were collected and analyzed for chromium (Cr), cadmium (Cd), and lead (Pb) contamination, using atomic absorption spectrometry method. The daily intake, target hazard quotient and the target carcinogenic risk (for lead only) as a result of fish and chicken consumption was calculated based on mean results, and by Monte Carlo simulation in @Risk with 100,000 iterations (quantitative risk assessment). ResultsCr and Cd were detected in 80-86% of both chicken meat and fish samples, while Pb positivity found in chicken meat and fish was 54.9 and 23.3%, respectively. The mean concentration (+/- SD) of Cr, Cd, and Pb in chicken meat were 0.66 +/- 0.93, 0.02 +/- 0.03, and 0.09 +/- 0.10 mg/kg, respectively; and in fish were 0.49 +/- 0.62, 0.02 +/- 0.03, and 0.06 +/- 0.09 mg/kg, respectively. The estimated daily intakes of Cr, Cd, and Pb from chicken and fish were lower than the maximum tolerable daily intake in all studied areas. In addition, the target carcinogenic risk for Pb in chicken was lower than the negligible range, which indicated the risk of cancer due to exposure to Pb through chicken meat and fish consumption was very low. DiscussionThe present study concludes that consumption of chicken meat and fish in Bangladesh, currently at very low levels, is unlikely to constitute a major health risk for humans in respect to these metals. However, continuous market surveillance for heavy metals in food stuff is recommended, especially since consumers may increase their meat intake.
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