| 1. |
- Kinyoki, DK, et al.
(författare)
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Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-170X .- 1078-8956. ; 26:5, s. 750-759
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Graetz, N, et al.
(författare)
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Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 577:77907789, s. 235-238
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health1–3. As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting4–6. The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness7,8; however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health9–11. Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but—to our knowledge—no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of individuals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries12–14. By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.
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| 5. |
- Izadi, Z., et al.
(författare)
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Association Between Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitors and the Risk of Hospitalization or Death Among Patients With Immune-Mediated Inflammatory Disease and COVID-19
- 2021
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Ingår i: Jama Network Open. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2574-3805. ; 4:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE Although tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors are widely prescribed globally because of their ability to ameliorate shared immune pathways across immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs), the impact of COVID-19 among individuals with IMIDs who are receiving TNF inhibitors remains insufficiently understood. OBJECTIVE To examine the association between the receipt of TNF inhibitor monotherapy and the risk of COVID-19-associated hospitalization or death compared with other commonly prescribed immunomodulatory treatment regimens among adult patients with IMIDs. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cohort study was a pooled analysis of data from 3 international COVID-19 registries comprising individuals with rheumatic diseases, inflammatory bowel disease, and psoriasis from March 12, 2020, to February 1, 2021. Clinicians directly reported COVID-19 outcomes as well as demographic and clinical characteristics of individuals with IMIDs and confirmed or suspected COVID-19 using online data entry portals. Adults (age >= 18 years) with a diagnosis of inflammatory arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, or psoriasis were included. EXPOSURES Treatment exposure categories included TNF inhibitor monotherapy (reference treatment), TNF inhibitors in combination with methotrexate therapy, TNF inhibitors in combination with azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine therapy, methotrexate monotherapy, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine monotherapy, and Janus kinase (Jak) inhibitor monotherapy. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The main outcome was COVID-19-associated hospitalization or death. Registry-level analyses and a pooled analysis of data across the 3 registries were conducted using multilevel multivariable logistic regression models, adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics and accounting for country, calendar month, and registry-level correlations. RESULTS A total of 6077 patients from 74 countries were included in the analyses; of those, 3215 individuals (52.9%) were from Europe, 3563 individuals (58.6%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 48.8 (16.5) years. The most common IMID diagnoses were rheumatoid arthritis (2146 patients [35.3%]) and Crohn disease (1537 patients [25.3%]). A total of 1297 patients (21.3%) were hospitalized, and 189 patients (3.1%) died. In the pooled analysis, compared with patients who received TNF inhibitor monotherapy, higher odds of hospitalization or death were observed among those who received a TNF inhibitor in combination with azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine therapy (odds ratio [OR], 1.74; 95% CI, 1.17-2.58; P = .006), azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine monotherapy (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.30-2.61; P = .001), methotrexate monotherapy (OR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.57-2.56; P < .001), and Jak inhibitor monotherapy (OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.21-2.73; P = .004) but not among those who received a TNF inhibitor in combination with methotrexate therapy (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.85-1.63; P = .33). Similar findings were obtained in analyses that accounted for potential reporting bias and sensitivity analyses that excluded patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis based on symptoms alone. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this cohort study, TNF inhibitor monotherapy was associated with a lower risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes compared with other commonly prescribed immunomodulatory treatment regimens among individuals with IMIDs.
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| 6. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 7. |
- Pettersson-Klein, A. T., et al.
(författare)
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Small molecule PGC-1 alpha 1 protein stabilizers induce adipocyte Ucp1 expression and uncoupled mitochondrial respiration
- 2018
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Ingår i: Molecular metabolism. - : Elsevier BV. - 2212-8778. ; 9, s. 28-42
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma coactivator-1 alpha 1 (PGC-1 alpha 1) regulates genes involved in energy metabolism. Increasing adipose tissue energy expenditure through PGC-1 alpha 1 activation is potentially beneficial for systemic metabolism. Pharmacological PGC-1 alpha 1 activators could be valuable tools in the fight against obesity and metabolic disease. Finding such compounds has been challenging partly because PGC-1 alpha 1 is a transcriptional coactivator with no known ligand-binding properties. While, PGC-1 alpha 1 activation is regulated by several mechanisms, protein stabilization is a crucial limiting step due to its short half-life under unstimulated conditions.Methods: We designed a cell-based high-throughput screening system to identify PGC-1 alpha 1 protein stabilizers. Positive hits were tested for their ability to induce endogenous PGC-1 alpha 1 protein accumulation and activate target gene expression in brown adipocytes. Select compounds were analyzed for their effects on global gene expression and cellular respiration in adipocytes.Results: Among 7,040 compounds screened, we highlight four small molecules with high activity as measured by: PGC-1 alpha 1 protein accumulation, target gene expression, and uncoupled mitochondrial respiration in brown adipocytes.Conclusions: We identify compounds that induce PGC-1 alpha 1 protein accumulation and show that this increases uncoupled respiration in brown adipocytes. This screening platform establishes the foundation for a new class of therapeutics with potential use in obesity and associated disorders.
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| 10. |
- Dellenmark-Blom, Michaela, 1983, et al.
(författare)
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Establishment of a condition-specific quality-of-life questionnaire for children born with esophageal atresia aged 2-7 across 14 countries
- 2023
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Pediatrics. - 2296-2360. ; 11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundEsophageal atresia (EA) is a rare congenital anomaly characterized by a discontinuity of the esophagus. Following surgical repair, survival rates have improved dramatically the past decenniums and today exceed 90%, but the children commonly present with esophageal and respiratory morbidity. In 2018, a condition-specific quality-of-life questionnaire for children with esophageal atresia (EA) aged 2-7 in Sweden-Germany was finalized (The EA-QOL questionnaire). The study aim was to describe the evaluation of the new translations across 12 new countries in Europe, Asia, Africa, Central-and North America.MethodsFollowing forward-backward translation into the new languages, the 17-item EA-QOL questionnaire was tested in cognitive debriefing interviews with parents of children with EA aged 2-7. Parents rated if each item was easy to understand (clarity) and sensitive to answer (interference with personal integrity). They could skip responding to a non-applicable/problematic item and give open comments. Predefined psychometric criteria were used; item clarity >= 80%/item sensitive to answer <= 20%/item feasibility <= 5% missing item responses. The decision to modify the translation was based on native expert, patient stakeholder, and instrument developer review, and the need for harmonization between translations.ResultsSimilar to findings in the Swedish-German cognitive debriefing, the cross-cultural analysis of input from 116 parents from 12 new countries (4-14 parents, median 9 parents/country) showed that all items in the EA-QOL questionnaire fulfilled the criteria for item clarity >= 80% and sensitive to answer (ranging from 1%-4.5%), although results varied between countries. Four items had missing responses between 5.2% and 13.4%, three within the same domain and were in line with parents' explanations. Poor translations and feasibility were improved.ConclusionsBased on parent input, the collaboration between native experts, patient stakeholders, and instrument developers, a linguistic version of the EA-QOL questionnaire for children aged 2-7 for use in and across 14 countries has been established. These efforts have set the conditions for a cross-cultural field test of the EA-QOL questionnaire and will open the doors for a new chapter in outcome research, registries, and clinical practice concerning children with EA. In the long-term, this will help increase knowledge of the disease's burden, promote patient-centeredness, exchange of information between nations, and strengthen evidence-based treatments for children born with EA.
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