| 1. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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| 2. |
- Hirao, Yuki, et al.
(författare)
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OGLE-2017-BLG-0406 : Spitzer Microlens Parallax Reveals Saturn-mass Planet Orbiting M-dwarf Host in the Inner Galactic Disk
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-6256 .- 1538-3881. ; 160:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the discovery and analysis of the planetary microlensing event OGLE-2017-BLG-0406, which was observed both from the ground and by the Spitzer satellite in a solar orbit. At high magnification, the anomaly in the light curve was densely observed by ground-based-survey and follow-up groups, and it was found to be explained by a planetary lens with a planet/host mass ratio of q = 7.0 x 10(-4) from the light-curve modeling. The ground-only and Spitzer-only data each provide very strong one-dimensional (1D) constraints on the 2D microlens parallax vector pi(E). When combined, these yield a precise measurement of pi(E) and of the masses of the host M-host = 0.56 +/- 0.07 M-circle dot and planet M-planet = 0.41 +/- 0.05 M-Jup. The system lies at a distance D-L = 5.2 +/- 0.5 kpc from the Sun toward the Galactic bulge, and the host is more likely to be a disk population star according to the kinematics of the lens. The projected separation of the planet from the host is a(perpendicular to) = 3.5 +/- 0.3 au (i.e., just over twice the snow line). The Galactic-disk kinematics are established in part from a precise measurement of the source proper motion based on OGLE-IV data. By contrast, the Gaia proper-motion measurement of the source suffers from a catastrophic 10 sigma error.
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| 3. |
- Jung, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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A comparison of very old patients admitted to intensive care unit after acute versus elective surgery or intervention
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of critical care. - : W B SAUNDERS CO-ELSEVIER INC. - 0883-9441 .- 1557-8615. ; 52, s. 141-148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: We aimed to evaluate differences in outcome between patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) after elective versus acute surgery in a multinational cohort of very old patients (80 years; VIP). Predictors of mortality, with special emphasis on frailty, were assessed.Methods: In total, 5063 VIPs were induded in this analysis, 922 were admitted after elective surgery or intervention, 4141 acutely, with 402 after acute surgery. Differences were calculated using Mann-Whitney-U test and Wilcoxon test. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression were used to assess associations with mortality.Results: Compared patients admitted after acute surgery, patients admitted after elective surgery suffered less often from frailty as defined as CFS (28% vs 46%; p < 0.001), evidenced lower SOFA scores (4 +/- 5 vs 7 +/- 7; p < 0.001). Presence of frailty (CFS >4) was associated with significantly increased mortality both in elective surgery patients (7% vs 12%; p = 0.01), in acute surgery (7% vs 12%; p = 0.02).Conclusions: VIPs admitted to ICU after elective surgery evidenced favorable outcome over patients after acute surgery even after correction for relevant confounders. Frailty might be used to guide clinicians in risk stratification in both patients admitted after elective and acute surgery.
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| 4. |
- Afsar, Atahan, et al.
(författare)
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A behavioral hybrid New Keynesian model : Quantifying the importance of belief formation frictions
- 2024
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Ingår i: Economic Modelling. - : Elsevier. - 1873-6122 .- 0264-9993. ; 132
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent evidence points towards significant belief formation frictions and forecast sluggishness. In this paper, we build a bounded rationality New Keynesian model, estimated to match the degree of forecast sluggishness present in the data. We find that bounded rationality induces enough myopia and intrinsic persistence, diminishing the influence of consumption habits and price indexation. Additionally, the bounded rationality model generates impulse response dynamics to monetary policy shocks that resemble those observed in empirical estimations. This study highlights the significance of bounded rationality in capturing real-world dynamics and provides valuable insights into the role of belief formation frictions in macroeconomic modeling.
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| 5. |
- Farhadfar, Nosha, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of Pretransplantation Renal Dysfunction on Outcomes after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation
- 2021
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Ingår i: Transplantation and Cellular Therapy. - : Elsevier. - 2666-6375 .- 2666-6367. ; 27:5, s. 410-422
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Renal dysfunction is a recognized risk factor for mortality after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT), yet our understanding of the effect of different levels of renal dysfunction at time of transplantation on outcomes remains limited. This study explores the impact of different degrees of renal dysfunction on HCT outcomes and examines whether the utilization of incremental degrees of renal dysfunction based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) improve the predictability of the hematopoietic cell transplantation comorbidity index (HCT-CI). The study population included 2 cohorts: cohort 1, comprising patients age >= 40 years who under went alloHCT for treatment of hematologic malignancies between 2008 and 2016 (n = 13,505; cohort selected given a very low incidence of renal dysfunction in individuals age <40 years), and cohort 2, comprising patients on dialysis at the time of HCT (n = 46). eGFR was measured using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) method. The patients in cohort 1 were assigned into 4 categories-eGFR >= 90 mL/min (n = 7062), eGFR 60 to 89 mL/min (n = 5264), eGFR 45 to 59 mL/min (n = 897), and eGFR <45 mL/min (n=282)-to assess the impact of degree of renal dysfunction on transplantation outcomes. Transplantation outcomes in patients on dialysis at the time of alloHCT were analyzed separately. eGFR <60 mL/min was associated with an increased risk for nonrelapse mortality (NRM) and requirement for dialysis post-HCT. Compared with the eGFR >= 90 group, the hazard ratio (HR) for NRM was 1.46 (P = .0001) for the eGFR 45 to 59 mL/min group and 1.74 (P = .004) for the eGFR <45 mL/min group. Compared with the eGFR >= 90 mL/min group, the eGFR 45 to 59 mL/min group (HR, 2.45; P < .0001) and the eGFR <45 mL/min group (HR, 3.09; P < .0001) had a higher risk of renal failure necessitating dialysis after alloHCT. In addition, eGFR <45 mL/min was associated with an increased overall mortality (HR, 1.63; P < .0001). An eGFR-based revised HCT-CI was also developed and shown to be predictive of overall survival (OS) and NRM, with predictive performance similar to the original HCT-CI. Among 46 patients on dialysis at alloHCT, the 1-year probability of OS was 20%, and that of NRM was 67%. The degree of pretransplantation renal dysfunction is an independent predictor of OS, NRM, and probability of needing dialysis after alloHCT. An eGFR-based HCT-CI is a validated index for predicting outcomes in adults with hematologic malignancies undergoing alloHCT. The outcomes of alloHCT recipients on dialysis are dismal; therefore, one should strongly weigh the significant risks of being on hemodialysis as a factor in determining alloHCT candidacy.
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