| 1. |
- Alexanderson, Helena, et al.
(författare)
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Coupled luminescence and cosmogenic nuclide dating of postglacial deflation surfaces and sand drift on a raised ice-contact delta at Veinge, SW Sweden
- 2024
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Ingår i: Quaternary Geochronology. - 1871-1014. ; 80
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wind-abraded cobbles (ventifacts) and aeolian sand are known from the sandy-gravelly coastal areas of south-western Sweden, especially in association with raised deltas. Ventifacts are recorded on at least two different stratigraphic levels, at some sites atop glaciofluvial sediment, at other sites atop littoral deposits, and in some places at both levels, while aeolian sand usually forms a surficial cover. The formation of ventifacts has usually been coupled to abrasion due to katabatic winds from the retreating ice sheet or with periglacial climate during the Younger Dryas stadial (12.8–11.7 ka).To determine the timing of these deflation events, we have applied a combination of dating methods to ventifacts and associated sediments on top of an ice-contact delta at Veinge, south-western Sweden. Quartz and feldspar luminescence dating as well as portable luminescence profiling has been used for littoral and aeolian sediments over- and underlying deflation surfaces, while rock surface luminescence burial dating and paired 14C–10Be cosmogenic nuclide dating were conducted on ventifacts. The results show that a first deflation event occurred c. 16.5 ka, just after deglaciation and prior to a regional transgression that peaked around 15.7 ka. At 12.4–11.4 ka, during the Younger Dryas stadial, a new set of ventifacts formed on the surface of the exposed littoral sands and gravels. Some wind abrasion also occurred in the early Holocene, but at c. 8.5 ka the surface was covered by aeolian sand, up to 2.5 m thick.The combination of different dating methods have allowed us to draw more informed conclusions on the timing and duration of these wind abrasion/transport events than would have been possible from the use of only single-method dating. It has also made it possible to infer some environmental conditions during deposition. For example, both glaciofluvial and littoral deposits show evidence of incomplete bleaching of the luminescence signal. This suggests short subaerial transport and brief reworking by waves, respectively, though bleaching conditions improved during shore regression. Rock surface burial luminescence profiles reveal that some ventifacts were repeatedly exposed, but that later event(s) were shorter in duration as indicated by quartz-feldspar age comparisons.
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| 2. |
- Alexanderson, Helena, et al.
(författare)
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Late glacial to Early Holocene deflation events and aeolian deposition on a raised ice-contact delta at Veinge, SW Sweden
- 2024
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Wind-abraded cobbles (ventifacts) and aeolian sand are known from the sandy-gravelly coastal areas of south-western Sweden, especially in association with raised deltas. Ventifacts are recorded on at least two different stratigraphic levels, on top of glaciofluvial sediment and/or on top of littoral deposits, while aeolian sand usually forms a surficial cover. The formation of ventifacts has usually been coupled to abrasion due to katabatic winds from the retreating ice sheet or with periglacial climate during the Younger Dryas stadial (12.8-11.6 ka). However, there are very few absolute ages, and the timing of wind deflation has recently been challenged and proposed to be much older (110-70 ka). To determine the timing of these deflation events, we have applied a combination of dating methods to ventifacts and associated sediments on top of an ice-contact delta at Veinge, south-western Sweden. Quartz and feldspar luminescence dating as well as portable luminescence profiling has been used for the over- and underlying sediments, while rock surface luminescence burial dating and paired 14C10Be cosmogenic nuclide dating were done on ventifacts. The results show that a first deflation event occurred c. 16.5 ka, just after deglaciation and prior to a regional transgression that peaked around 15.7 ka. At 12.4-11.4 ka, during and just after the Younger Dryas stadial, a new set of ventifacts formed on the surface of the exposed littoral sands and gravels. Some wind abrasion also occurred in the early Holocene, but at c. 8.5 ka the surface was covered by aeolian sand, up to 2.5 m thick. The combination of dating methods allowed us to extract more information about the timing and duration of these wind abrasion/transport events than we would have if only a single method had been used, and it is also possible to infer some environmental conditions. For example, both glaciofluvial and littoral deposits show evidence of incomplete bleaching of the luminescence signal. This suggests short subaerial transport and brief reworking by waves, respectively, though bleaching conditions improved during shore regression. Rock surface burial luminescence profiles reveal that some ventifacts were repeatedly exposed, but that later event(s) were shorter in duration as indicated by quartz-feldspar age comparisons.
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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 5. |
- Möller, Per, et al.
(författare)
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Ventifacts and wind deflation surfaces in context with glaciofluvial sediment successions in southern Sweden
- 2024
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Recent suggestions propose that the glacial landscape of southern Sweden is a relict landscape from the Saalian glaciation (>130 ka) (Lagerbäck, 2018). The primary argument supporting this viewpoint is the claimed observation that the majority of glaciofluvial deposits in this region exhibits a covering till bed, often accompanied by wind-abraded clasts (ventifacts) at the contact between glaciofluvial sediment and till. It has been further posited that this wind abrasion event dates back to the Early Weichselian, preceding the last glaciation, and occurred during periglacial conditions of that period. If this were indeed the case, it would imply that generations of Quaternary geologists had overlooked or disregarded this relationship, necessitating a paradigm shift in our comprehension of the Quaternary geological history of the area.To assess the validity of these claims, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of purported stratigraphic conditions within 54 gravel quarries south of the Middle Swedish End Moraine Zone (MSEMZ). The presence of a covering bed of what can be sedimentologically interpreted as a glacially deposited diamict a till above glaciofluvial sediments was confirmed in only 22% of the gravel pits. These occurrences were primarily linked to locations in close proximity to well-known positions associated with ice-margin standstills or oscillations during the Late Weichselian. In all other quarries, where the presence of covering till could not be confirmed, ventifacts were found in various stratigraphic positions. These positions were contingent upon deglacial and post-deglacial environmental conditions and included ventifacts at the contact between glaciofluvial and overlying littoral sediment, ventifacts redeposited within littoral sediment, and ventifacts at the contact between glaciofluvial or littoral sediment and overlying aeolian sediment.To ascertain the age of the ventifaction event(s), we conducted an extensive luminescence (OSL) dating program (n = 74) in 22 of the gravel pits that were more meticulously studied from a sedimentological perspective. Out findings indicate that wind abrasion in southern Sweden was not a single, simultaneous event but a process that occurred at varying times. It sometimes coincided closely with the local deglaciation and at other times or locations extended into the Early Holocene. Importantly, none of the identified ventifact surfaces predate the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). For west-coast sites, the evidence suggests wind abrasion occurring as early as between 17 and 16 ka ago during periglacial conditions. This is indicated by the presence of ice-wedge casts in delta topset surfaces. In upland sites, ventifact formation age presents two possibilities either it occurred immediately after deglaciation or during the Younger Dryas period. All upland sites were deglaciated during the BøllingAllerød interstadial complex (14.712.8 ka). Despite protective vegetation further away from the ice margin, areas close to the ice margin may have experienced a sufficiently harsh wind climate conducive to ventifact formation. Moreover, several sites suggest a period of intensive ventifact formation also took place during Younger Dryas, even extending to regions far south of the ice margin at the time. The formation of patterned ground, as evidenced by recorded ice wedge casts, implies a severe periglacial climate with reduced vegetation cover, resulting in sand drift and ventifact formation, with the former also leading to aeolian sediment deposition as the Early Holocene commenced.ReferencesLagerbäck, R., 2018: Den senaste nedisningen i södra Sverige – och tiden dessförinnan. SGU Rapporter och meddelanden 143, 87 pp.
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| 6. |
- Möller, Per, et al.
(författare)
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Ventifacts and wind deflation surfaces in context with glaciofluvial sediment successions in southern Sweden – their age and implication for glacial history
- 2024
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - 0277-3791. ; 327
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent suggestions propose that the glacial landscape in southern Sweden is primarily a relict from the Saalian glaciation (>130 ka). The arguments for this standpoint are the assertion that the majority of glaciofluvial deposits in this region are till-covered, and that wind-abraded clasts are observed at the contact between glaciofluvial sediments and till at numerous locations. Furthermore, it has been posited that this wind abrasion occurred during periglacial conditions during the Early Weichselian, preceding the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). If this hypothesis holds true, it would necessitate a significant shift in our understanding of the Quaternary geological history for this region. To test this claim, we conducted an extensive examination of the purported stratigraphic conditions within 54 gravel quarries situated south of the Middle Swedish End Moraine Zone (MSEMZ). The presence of a covering till bed on top of glaciofluvial sediments could only be confirmed in 22% of the gravel pits, and these sites were almost exclusively associated with ice-margin standstills/oscillations during the Late Weichselian deglaciation. In all other quarries where covering till could not be verified, ventifacts occur in several stratigraphic positions: at the contact between glaciofluvial and overlying littoral sediment, redeposited ventifacts within littoral sediment, and ventifacts at the contact between glaciofluvial or littoral sediments and overlying aeolian sediment. We conducted an extensive luminescence dating program (comprising 74 samples) in 22 of the gravel pits to determine the age of the ventification by dating underlying and overlying sediments. We conclude that wind abrasion across southern Sweden was not a single simultaneous event but rather a time-transgressively or recurrent process. It occurred in close conjunction with local deglaciation in some instances, while in others, it transpired later, extending into the Early Holocene. Notably, none of the encountered ventifact surfaces are of a pre-LGM age. For sites along the west coast, the evidence indicates a first wind abrasion event during periglacial conditions roughly between 17 and 16 ka. In upland sites, ventifact formation either occurred immediately after deglaciation, during the BøllingAllerød interstadial complex (14.712.8 ka), or during the Younger Dryas. Even though the ice margin was situated far to the north of these sites during the latter event, concurrent patterned ground formation suggests a harsh climate with reduced vegetation cover, leading to sand drift and ventifact formation in both coastal and upland areas. In some locations, the sand drift and subsequent aeolian sediment deposition persisted into the Early Holocene. Based on our stratigraphic investigations and dates, we reject the idea that southern Sweden's glacial landscape was shaped primarily during the Saalian.
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| 7. |
- Peric, Zoran, et al.
(författare)
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Quartz OSL dating of late quaternary Chinese and Serbian loess : A cross Eurasian comparison of dust mass accumulation rates
- 2019
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Ingår i: Quaternary International. - : Elsevier BV. - 1040-6182 .- 1873-4553. ; 502:Part A, s. 30-44
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reconstructing dust Mass Accumulation Rate (MAR) from loess deposits is critical to understanding past atmospheric mineral dust activity and requires accurate independent age models from loess deposits across Europe and Asia. Previous correlations of loess in Europe and China have tended to focus on multi-millennial timescales, with no detailed examination of dust MAR at the two ends of the Eurasian loess belt on shorter, sub-orbital scales. Here we present a detailed quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) chronology from the Serbian Titel Loess Plateau (Veliki Surduk loess core) and the Chinese Loess Plateau (Lingtai section). The luminescence ages pass internal tests and show consistent increases in age with depth, with no obvious major hiatuses. However, as reported before, it seems the quartz OSL technique is only capable of accurate age determination up to accrued doses of ca. 150 Gy (ca. 30–40 ka) due to approaching field saturation of the quartz OSL signal. Two age-depth models were used to reconstruct dust MARs, where one utilises OSL data solely and the other additionally makes assumptions about sedimentation rates. Although short-term fluctuations in MAR are model dependent, general MAR patterns between the two sites are very similar, with peak MAR occurring rather late in the last glacial (ca. 13–25 ka). This suggests that at least broad scale trends in dust activity within the last glacial period may be similar at a continental scale.
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| 8. |
- Rades, Eike F., et al.
(författare)
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Exploring the potential of rock surface luminescence from glacial sediments : dating and transport history
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Ingår i: Boreas. - 0300-9483.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The dating of moraine deposits can present challenges to standard geochronological methods; terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN), sediment luminescence and radiocarbon dating may suffer from problems of incomplete resetting (by inheritance, intermittent cover/exposure, transport under unfavourable conditions) and/or a lack of suitable (organic) material. Rock surface luminescence burial dating (RSLBD) offers an alternative approach with considerable potential in dating moraines. In RSLBD, large cobbles/boulders are targeted, rather than smaller grains usually used in luminescence dating. The age limit of RSLBD is much higher than that of radiocarbon dating, and rocks are much more readily available than organic material. In contrast to TCN dating, the effect of exposure prior to deposition can be measured. In this study, we sampled a broad selection of primarily granitic boulders of various sizes and shapes (e.g. different degrees of roundness and sphericity) from the Vimmerby Moraine, a prominent and accessible feature in southern Sweden dated using TCN to 14.4±0.9 ka. Our study was designed to test whether morphological characteristics can be used to discriminate in favour of the most light-exposed boulders and minimize measurements of non-exposed boulders. As expected, not all RSLBD ages can be attributed to the same depositional event, but the majority of the resulting ages provide a mean age of 13.0±1.5 ka, consistent with the cosmogenic nuclide dating of the Vimmerby Moraine. Despite the apparently successful TCN study, the luminescence–depth profiles measured in the buried surfaces of the sampled clasts indicate that >50% of these moraine boulders were exposed to light (and cosmic radiation) before final deposition, implying some (presumably small) TCN inheritance; seven of the 16 boulders identified as light exposed were sufficiently bleached to be useful for RSLBD. These results and their implications in regard to transport and deposition of the sampled cobbles are critically discussed and evaluated.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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