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| 2. |
- Carlsson, Fredrik, 1968, et al.
(författare)
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Do administrators have the same priorities for risk reductions as the general public?
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0895-5646 .- 1573-0476. ; 45:1, s. 79-95
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A stated preference survey was used to investigate the potential discrepancy between the priorities of public administrators and the general public regarding risk reductions. Both groups of respondents were asked to assume the role of a public policy-maker and choose between different public safety projects. We investigate differences in three areas: (i) large vs. small accidents, (ii) actual vs. subjective risk, and (iii) the trade-off between avoiding fatalities and serious injuries for different age groups and accidents. We find only minor differences between the responses of administrators and the general public, the most important of which is the difference in priorities between reducing the risk of many small or one large accident. In this area the most common response from the general public is that they prefer avoiding many small accidents rather than one large accident while among the administrators there is almost an equal split between the two options.
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| 3. |
- Carlsson, Fredrik, 1968, et al.
(författare)
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Do you do what you say or do you do what you say others do?
- 2008
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Rapport (refereegranskat)abstract
- We design a donations vs. own money choice experiment comparing three differenttreatments. In two of the treatments the pay-offs are hypothetical. In the first of these, a shortcheap talk script was used, and subjects were required to state their own preferences in thisscenario. In the second, subjects were asked to state how they believed an average studentwould respond to the choices. In the third treatment the pay-offs were real, allowing us to usethe results to compare the validity of the two hypothetical treatments. We find a stronghypothetical bias in both hypothetical treatments where the marginal willingness to pay fordonations are higher when subjects state their own preferences but lower when subjects statewhat they believe are other students preferences. The explanation is probably a self-imageeffect in both cases. We find that it is mainly women who are prone to hypothetical bias inthis study
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Carlsson, F., et al.
(författare)
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Value of statistical life and cause of accident: A choice experiment
- 2008
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The results from this study are used to compare the marginal willingness to pay for risk reductions and calculate corresponding values of statistical life for road, fire and drowning accidents in Sweden. The values were estimated using a mail survey with 5200 respondents where each respondent was required to answer nine different dichotomous willingness to pay questions which were varied according to accident type, base line risk, risk reduction and cost. The risk reductions were expressed as mortality risk for adult Swedes. The questionnaire also contained socioeconomic and risk related questions. We find that - Women are more likely to take actions in order to reduce their mortality risk. - Older respondents are more likely to take actions in order to reduce their risk of dying by fire and road accidents, but not drowning. - Respondents who live in apartment blocks are less likely to take actions to reduce their mortality risk. - Respondents who have had a previous bad experience with road accidents are more likely to take mortality risk reducing actions. - Respondents who found the valuation questions easy to answer are more likely to take actions. Using results from at probit regression model we find the value of statistical life for road accidents to be 20.2 million Swedish kronor (⬠2.2 million), 13.3 million kronor (⬠1.4 million) for fire accidents, and 12.4 million kronor (⬠1.3 million) for drowning accidents. Our results therefore suggest that different values should be used in a cost-benefit framework depending on the accident type. The value of statistical life for road accidents is within the span of other Swedish estimates where several studies using contingent valuation methods with WTP-questions have arrived at values between 17 and 24 million Swedish kronor (Persson et al, 1996; Persson et al, 2001; Hultkrantz et al, 2006; Svensson, 2007). Further comparison is not possible because we are unaware of any other studies that estimate the value of statistical life using WTP-questions for fire and drowning accidents. The respondents were also asked whether they believed they could affect the level of risk and also questioned on the extent of their concern regarding the different types of accidents. The responses indicate that while subjects believe that they can affect the risk levels of all three accident types, they believe that they can control the risk for road accidents to a lesser extent for road accidents than for the others. Similarly, although subjects do not worry about the mortality risks to any large extent, there is a clear difference between road accidents and the other causes. It may be the case that these two factors cause the differences in value of statistical life estimates for road accidents on one hand and fire and drowning accidents on the other hand. The results that subjective beliefs of the risk such as dread and voluntariness influences the value of statistical life is in line with suggestions by Slovic (1987), Savage (1993) and Chilton et al (2006)
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| 6. |
- Carlsson, Fredrik, 1968, et al.
(författare)
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Value of statistical life and cause of accident: A choice experiment
- 2008
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The purpose of this study is to compare value of statistical life (VSL) estimates for traffic, drowning and fire accidents. Using a choice experiment in a mail survey of 5000 Swedish respondents we estimated the willingness to pay for risk reductions in the three accidents. In the experiment respondents were asked in a series of questions, whether they would choose risk reducing investments where type of accident, cost of the investment, the risk reduction acquired, and the baseline risk varied between questions. The VSLs for fire and drowning accidents were found to be about 1/3 lower than that for traffic accidents. Although respondents worry more about traffic accidents, this alone cannot explain the difference in VSL estimates. The difference between fire and drowning accidents was not found to be statistically significant.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Grahn, Tonje
(författare)
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A Nordic Perspective on Data Availability for Quantification of Losses due to Natural Hazards
- 2016
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Natural hazards cause enormous amounts of damage worldwide every year. Since 1994 more than 1.35 billion people have lost their lives and more than 116 million homes have been damaged. Understanding of disaster risk implies knowledge about vulnerability, capacity, exposure of persons and assets, hazard characteristics and the environment. Quantitative damage assessments are a fundamental part of disaster risk management. There are, however, substantial challenges when quantifying damage which depends on the diversity of hazards and the fact that one hazardous event can negatively impact a society in multiple ways. The overall aim of the thesis is to analyze the relationship between climate-related natural hazards and subsequent damage for the purpose of improving the prerequisite for quantitative risk assessments in the future. The thesis concentrates on two specific types of consequences due to two types of hazards, 1) damage to buildings caused by lake floods, and 2) loss of lives caused by quick clay landslides. Several causal relationships were established between risk factors and the extent of damages. Lake water levels increased the probability of structural building damage. Private damage reducing measures decreased the probability of structural building damage. Extent of damage decreased with distance to waterfront but increased with longer flood duration while prewar houses suffered lower flood damage compared to others. Concerning landslides, the number of fatalities increased when the number of humans in the exposed population increased. The main challenges to further damage estimation are data scarcity, insufficient detail level and the fact that the data are rarely systematically collected for scientific purposes. More efforts are needed to create structured, homogeneous and detailed damage databases with corresponding risk factors in order to further develop quantitative damage assessment of natural hazards in a Nordic perspective.
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| 9. |
- Grahn, Tonje, et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of data availability for the development of landslide fatality curves
- 2017
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Ingår i: Landslides. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1612-510X .- 1612-5118. ; 14:3, s. 1113-1126
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Quick clay landslides are a special feature of Norwegian and Swedish geologies. Vibrations or small initial landslides can cause a quick clay layer to collapse and liquefy, resulting in rapid landslides with little or no time for evacuation, making them a real threat to human life. Research concentrating on damages due to landslides is scarce, and analyses of loss of human lives caused by quick clay landslides in the scientific literature are, to our knowledge, non-existing. Fatality quantification can complement landslide risk assessments and serves as guidance for policy choices when evaluating efficient risk-reducing measures. The objectives of this study were to assess and analyze available damage information in an existing data set of 66 historical landslide events that occurred in Norway and Sweden between 1848 and 2009, and access its applicability for quantifying loss of human life caused by quick clay landslides. Fatality curves were estimated as functions of the number of exposed persons per landslide. Monte Carlo simulations were used to account for the uncertainties in the number of people actually exposed. The results of the study imply that the quick clay fatality curves are non-linear, indicating that the probability of losing lives increases exponentially when the number of exposed persons increases. Potential factors affecting human susceptibility to landslides (e.g., landslide-, area-, or individual-specific characteristics) could not be satisfyingly quantified based on available historical records. Future research should concentrate on quantifying susceptibility factors that can further explain human vulnerability to quick clay landslides.
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| 10. |
- Grahn, Tonje, 1976-, et al.
(författare)
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Households (un)willingness to perform private flood risk reduction : Results from a Swedish survey
- 2019
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Ingår i: Safety Science. - : Elsevier. - 0925-7535 .- 1879-1042. ; 116, s. 127-136
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study applies the protection motivation theory (PMT) in analysing homeowners’ flood risk perception and their risk reduction behaviour. A survey was completed by 1143 households in flood-prone residential areas in Sweden. Respondents were asked about their flood experience, their beliefs about their future private flood risk, their trust in public risk reduction and their perception of how responsibility for flood risk reduction is divided between different governmental and private institutions. This study finds that homeowners that have implemented private flood risk reduction (FRR) had to a larger extent been exposed to floods in the past and they considered public FRR to be insufficient. They also had a greater sense of responsibility and believed they had considerable knowledge on how to reduce their private flood risk. Respondents were also asked about their preferences for performing 15 specific private risk reducing measures. The most frequent answer given by homeowners was (1) they do not have the knowledge needed to evaluate the measures. (2) They have evaluated the measures and deemed that the measures will not be able to effectively reduce their private flood risk. To facilitate and exploit the flood risk reduction potential of households, this study identifies the following four areas of flood risk management that need to be better communicated to residents in vulnerable residential areas: Objective flood risk, response efficacy regarding private and public FRR measures, skills that can increase homeowners’ self-efficacy, and the actual responsibility distribution by law concerning private property flood risk reduction.
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