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- Barthel, Roland, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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Global change impacts on groundwater in Southern Germany-Part 2: Socioeconomic aspects
- 2011
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Ingår i: Grundwasser. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1430-483X .- 1432-1165. ; 16:4, s. 259-268
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In order to account for complex interactions between humans climate and the water cycle, the research consortium GLOWA-Danube http://www. glowa-danube. de has developed the simulation system DANUBIA which consists of 17 coupled models. DANUBIA was applied to investigate various impacts of global-change between 2011 and 2060 in the Upper Danube Catchment. This article describes part 2 of an article series with investigations of socio-economic aspects, while part 1 (Barthel et al. in Grundwasser 16(4), doi:10. 1007/s007-011-01794, 2011) deals with natural-spatial aspects. The principles of socio-economic actor-modeling and interactions between socio-economic and natural science model components are described here. We present selected simulations that show impacts on groundwater from changes in agriculture, tourism, economy, domestic water users and water supply. Despite decreases in water consumption, the scenario simulations show significant decreases in groundwater quantity. On the other hand, groundwater quality will likely be influenced more severely by land use changes compared to direct climatic causes. However, overall changes will not be dramatic. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.
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- Barthel, Roland, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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An integrated modelling framework for simulating regional-scale actor responses to global change in the water domain
- 2008
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152. ; 23:9, s. 1095-1121
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Within coupled hydrological simulation systems, taking socio-economic processes into account is still a challenging task. In particular, systems that aim at evaluating impacts of climatic change on large spatial and temporal scales cannot be based on the assumption that infrastructure, economy, demography and other human factors remain constant while physical boundary conditions change. Therefore, any meaningful simulation of possible future scenarios needs to enable socio-economic systems to react and to adapt to climatic changes. To achieve this it is necessary to simulate decision-making processes of the relevant actors in a way which is adequate for the scale, the catchment specific management problems to be investigated and finally the data availability. This contribution presents the DEEPACTOR approach for representing such human decision processes, which makes use of a multi-actor simulation framework and has similarities to agent-based approaches. This DEEPACTOR approach is embedded in DANUBIA, a coupled simulation system comprising 16 individual models to simulate Global Change impacts on the entire water cycle of the Upper Danube Catchment (Germany, 77,000 km(2)). The applicability of DANUBIA and in particular the DEEPACTOR approach for treating the socio-economic part of the water cycle in a process-based way is demonstrated by means of concrete simulation models of the water supply sector and of the domestic water users. Results from scenario simulations are used to demonstrate the capabilities and limitations of the approach. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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- Barthel, Roland, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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Using the multiactor-approach in GLOWA-danube to simulate decisions for the water supply sector under conditions of global climate change
- 2010
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Ingår i: Water Resources Management. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0920-4741 .- 1573-1650. ; 24:2, s. 239-275
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Glowa-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de) is an interdisciplinary project that aims to develop integrated strategies and tools for water and land use management in the upper Danube catchment (Germany, Austria ~77,000 km2). The project is one of five within the Glowa research program (www.glowa.org) dealing with Global Change effects on the water cycle in six meso-scale catchments (up to 100,000 km2) in Central Europe, West Africa and the Middle East. In the Glowa-Danube project, 16 natural science and socio-economic simulation models are integrated in the coupled simulation system Danubia. This article describes the underlying concept and implementation of WaterSupply, a multiactor-based model of the water supply sector with a focus on water resource utilization and distribution of individual water supply companies. Within Danubia, WaterSupply represents the link between water supply and demand, where the former is simulated by a groundwater and a surface water model and the latter by water consumption models of four different sectors (domestic, industrial, agricultural and tourism). WaterSupply interprets the quantitative state of water resources for defined spatial and temporal units according to sustainability requirements and assesses the state of resources in relation to present water supply schemes and the dynamics of user demand. WaterSupply then seeks both to optimize the resource use of supply companies and to identify critical regions for which further adaptation of the water supply scheme will become necessary under changing climatic conditions. In this article, a brief description of the Glowa-Danube project and the integrated simulation system Danubia is followed by a short presentation of the DeepActor framework, which provides a common conceptual and technical basis for the socio-economic simulation models of Glowa-Danube. The main body of the article is devoted to the concept, the implementation and simulation results of WaterSupply. Results from different scenario calculations demonstrate the capabilities and the potential fields of application of the model. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.
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