| 1. |
- Downing, Andrea S., et al.
(författare)
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Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria's ecosystem services
- 2014
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 19:4, s. 31-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- East Africa's Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake's shores and abroad. In particular, the lake's fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria's system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake's social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks' vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society's vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.
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| 2. |
- Mooij, Wolf M., et al.
(författare)
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Modeling water quality in the Anthropocene : directions for the next-generation aquatic ecosystem models
- 2019
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Ingår i: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. - : Elsevier BV. - 1877-3435 .- 1877-3443. ; 36, s. 85-95
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Everything changes and nothing stands still (Heraclitus). Here we review three major improvements to freshwater aquatic ecosystem models - and ecological models in general - as water quality scenario analysis tools towards a sustainable future. To tackle the rapid and deeply connected dynamics characteristic of the Anthropocene, we argue for the inclusion of eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics. These dynamics arise from adaptive responses in organisms and ecosystems to global environmental change and act at different integration levels and different time scales. We provide reasons and means to incorporate each improvement into aquatic ecosystem models. Throughout this study we refer to Lake Victoria as a microcosm of the evolving novel social-ecological systems of the Anthropocene. The Lake Victoria case clearly shows how interlinked eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics are, and demonstrates the need for transdisciplinary research approaches towards global sustainability.
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| 3. |
- Benatar, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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Safety and efficacy of arimoclomol in patients with early amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ORARIALS-01) : a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre, phase 3 trial
- 2024
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 23:7, s. 687-699
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder leading to muscle weakness and respiratory failure. Arimoclomol, a heat-shock protein-70 (HSP70) co-inducer, is neuroprotective in animal models of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, with multiple mechanisms of action, including clearance of protein aggregates, a pathological hallmark of sporadic and familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of arimoclomol in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.Methods: ORARIALS-01 was a multinational, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group trial done at 29 centres in 12 countries in Europe and North America. Patients were eligible if they were aged 18 years or older and met El Escorial criteria for clinically possible, probable, probable laboratory-supported, definite, or familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; had an ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised score of 35 or more; and had slow vital capacity at 70% or more of the value predicted on the basis of the participant's age, height, and sex. Patients were randomly assigned (2:1) in blocks of 6, stratified by use of a stable dose of riluzole or no riluzole use, to receive oral arimoclomol citrate 1200 mg/day (400 mg three times per day) or placebo. The Randomisation sequence was computer generated centrally. Investigators, study personnel, and study participants were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was the Combined Assessment of Function and Survival (CAFS) rank score over 76 weeks of treatment. The primary outcome and safety were analysed in the modified intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03491462, and is completed.Findings: Between July 31, 2018, and July 17, 2019, 287 patients were screened, 245 of whom were enrolled in the trial and randomly assigned. The modified intention-to-treat population comprised 239 patients (160 in the arimoclomol group and 79 in the placebo group): 151 (63%) were male and 88 (37%) were female; mean age was 57·6 years (SD 10·9). CAFS score over 76 weeks did not differ between groups (mean 0·51 [SD 0·29] in the arimoclomol group vs 0·49 [0·28] in the placebo group; p=0·62). Cliff's delta comparing the two groups was 0·039 (95% CI –0·116 to 0·194). Proportions of participants who died were similar between the treatment groups: 29 (18%) of 160 patients in the arimoclomol group and 18 (23%) of 79 patients in the placebo group. Most deaths were due to disease progression. The most common adverse events were gastrointestinal. Adverse events were more often deemed treatment-related in the arimoclomol group (104 [65%]) than in the placebo group (41 [52%]) and more often led to treatment discontinuation in the arimoclomol group (26 [16%]) than in the placebo group (four [5%]).Interpretation: Arimoclomol did not improve efficacy outcomes compared with placebo. Although available biomarker data are insufficient to preclude future strategies that target the HSP response, safety data suggest that a higher dose of arimoclomol would not have been tolerated.Funding: Orphazyme.
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| 6. |
- Alavi, Y., et al.
(författare)
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The dynamics of interactions between Plasmodium and the mosquito : a study of the infectivity of Plasmodium berghei and Plasmodium gallinaceum, and their transmission by Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles gambiae and Aedes aegypti
- 2003
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Ingår i: International Journal of Parasitology. - : Elsevier. - 0020-7519 .- 1879-0135. ; 33:9, s. 933-943
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Knowledge of parasite–mosquito interactions is essential to develop strategies that will reduce malaria transmission through the mosquito vector. In this study we investigated the development of two model malaria parasites, Plasmodium berghei and Plasmodium gallinaceum, in three mosquito species Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles gambiae and Aedes aegypti. New methods to study gamete production in vivo in combination with GFP-expressing ookinetes were employed to measure the large losses incurred by the parasites during infection of mosquitoes. All three mosquito species transmitted P. gallinaceum; P. berghei was only transmitted by Anopheles spp. Plasmodium gallinaceum initiates gamete production with high efficiency equally in the three mosquito species. By contrast P. berghei is less efficiently activated to produce gametes, and in Ae. aegypti microgamete formation is almost totally suppressed. In all parasite/vector combinations ookinete development is inefficient, 500–100,000-fold losses were encountered. Losses during ookinete-to-oocyst transformation range from fivefold in compatible vector parasite combinations (P. berghei/An. stephensi), through >100-fold in poor vector/parasite combinations (P. gallinaceum/An. stephensi), to complete blockade (>1,500 fold) in others (P. berghei/Ae. aegypti). Plasmodium berghei ookinetes survive poorly in the bloodmeal of Ae. aegypti and are unable to invade the midgut epithelium. Cultured mature ookinetes of P. berghei injected directly into the mosquito haemocoele produced salivary gland sporozoites in An. stephensi, but not in Ae. aegypti, suggesting that further species-specific incompatibilities occur downstream of the midgut epithelium in Ae. aegypti. These results show that in these parasite–mosquito combinations the susceptibility to malarial infection is regulated at multiple steps during the development of the parasites. Understanding these at the molecular level may contribute to the development of rational strategies to reduce the vector competence of malarial vectors.
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| 8. |
- Hilt, Sabine, et al.
(författare)
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Response of submerged macrophyte communities to external and internal restoration measures in north temperate shallow lakes
- 2018
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Plant Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1664-462X. ; 9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Submerged macrophytes play a key role in north temperate shallow lakes by stabilizing clear-water conditions. Eutrophication has resulted in macrophyte loss and shifts to turbid conditions in many lakes. Considerable efforts have been devoted to shallow lake restoration in many countries, but long-term success depends on a stable recovery of submerged macrophytes. However, recovery patterns vary widely and remain to be fully understood. We hypothesize that reduced external nutrient loading leads to an intermediate recovery state with clear spring and turbid summer conditions similar to the pattern described for eutrophication. In contrast, lake internal restoration measures can result in transient clear-water conditions both in spring and summer and reversals to turbid conditions. Furthermore, we hypothesize that these contrasting restoration measures result in different macrophyte species composition, with added implications for seasonal dynamics due to differences in plant traits. To test these hypotheses, we analyzed data on water quality and submerged macrophytes from 49 north temperate shallow lakes that were in a turbid state and subjected to restoration measures. To study the dynamics of macrophytes during nutrient load reduction, we adapted the ecosystem model PCLake. Our survey and model simulations revealed the existence of an intermediate recovery state upon reduced external nutrient loading, characterized by spring clear-water phases and turbid summers, whereas internal lake restoration measures often resulted in clear-water conditions in spring and summer with returns to turbid conditions after some years. External and internal lake restoration measures resulted in different macrophyte communities. The intermediate recovery state following reduced nutrient loading is characterized by a few macrophyte species (mainly pondweeds) that can resist wave action allowing survival in shallowareas, germinate early in spring, have energy-rich vegetative propagules facilitating rapid initial growth and that can complete their life cycle by early summer. Later in the growing season these plants are, according to our simulations, outcompeted by periphyton, leading to late-summer phytoplankton blooms. Internal lake restoration measures often coincide with a rapid but transient colonization by hornworts, waterweeds or charophytes. Stable clear-water conditions and a diverse macrophyte flora only occurred decades after external nutrient load reduction or when measures were combined.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Mooij, Wolf M., et al.
(författare)
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Serving many at once : How a database approach can create unity in dynamical ecosystem modelling
- 2014
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 61, s. 266-273
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Simulation modelling in ecology is a field that is becoming increasingly compartmentalized. Here we propose a Database Approach To Modelling (DATM) to create unity in dynamical ecosystem modelling with differential equations. In this approach the storage of ecological knowledge is independent of the language and platform in which the model will be run. To create an instance of the model, the information in the database is translated and augmented with the language and platform specifics. This process is automated so that a new instance can be created each time the database is updated. We describe the approach using the simple Lotka-Volterra model and the complex ecosystem model for shallow lakes PCLake, which we automatically implement in the frameworks OSIRIS, GRIND for MATLAB, ACSL, R, DUFLOW and DELWAQ. A clear advantage of working in a database is the overview it provides. The simplicity of the approach only adds to its elegance.
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