| 1. |
- Jonasson, Karl, 1978, et al.
(författare)
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Environmental Assessment of Emerging Technologies: The Case of Alternative Transport Fuels
- 2005
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- There are several methods to evaluate the environmental performance of new technologies. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the methodological development of environmental assessments, with contributions from life-cycle assessment (LCA), theories on technical change and socio-technical scenarios.LCA, or well-to-wheel studies, is a widely used tool for evaluating the environmental performance of alternative transport fuels. However, the methodology is usually not adapted to answer questions regarding strategic technology choice. Suggestions are presented that could increase the usefulness of LCA in this respect. A net output approach is used, where fuels are used for their own production and distribution. Background system changes and the size of byproduct markets are studied, and it is shown that these factors can have a large influence on the results. Studies of LCA type can be used to give information on which fuels that have a low environmental impact today, and which are promising in the long run. However, it is suggested that also dynamic processes of technical changed need to be taken into account in the selection of technologies.In a study of the history of alternative transport fuels in Sweden, we show that also short-term options can contribute to the development towards more promising long-term options. Investments in alternative fuels during the years have not only resulted in physical artefacts and new explicit knowledge, but have also created dedicated actors and changed tacit knowledge and normative rules. Positive feedback loops related to actors, knowledge and rules have created more actors and changed regulation, and an ability of alternatives to survive. At the same time, the growth of some alternatives has favoured others, due to overlaps in socio-technical systems.However, the growth of alternatives is still very much dependent on exogenous factors and policy. The balance between short-term and long-term options in the transition of the transport system is illustrated through the use of socio-technical scenarios. These show that there is a risk that any policy could result in a negative development for renewable alternatives, but they also suggest that there are opportunities for growth. Policy could balance the development in different parts of the system, and make use of short-term options to contribute to more radical changes in the transport system.
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| 2. |
- Jonasson, Karl
(författare)
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Consequential Environmental Assessment Including Socio-Technical Change
- 2007
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Ingår i: 3rd International Conference on Life Cycle Management, Zurich, August 27-29, 2007. ; , s. 95-
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- There are various ways to perform environmental assessment of emerging technologies, to be used as a base for decision-making. For instance, direct effects of a technology investment can be assessed, as in consequential studies, or the environmental impact in a number of possible future scenarios can be calculated, using an attributional approach. Here, we propose a consequential approach that includes socio-technical change, to account for contributions of an investment to system change and the resulting improvements (or deterioration) in environmental performance. We have earlier performed a socio-technical analysis of the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden, both in a historic perspective and with scenarios for the coming years. Our aim was to investigate how new technologies emerge and grow, and how investments in one technology affect the growth of others. The results show for instance that a research program on coal gasification in the 1970’s, or an investment in a few ethanol buses in the 1980’s, have far-reaching effects on the development of alternative fuels in general. New actors are involved and institutions are adjusted that are in favour of the technology concerned (and related ones), thus stimulating further investments in new (and improved) technologies. Accordingly, some of the resulting environmental improvements could be allocated to early investments, and we would like to pose the question of how this could be accounted for in environmental assessment of emerging technologies. To illustrate this issue by an actual example, we use published LCA data to calculate the environmental impact of the use of ethanol as a vehicle fuel in Sweden at three points in time: 1990, 2005 and 2020. First, for each year, this will give us the LCA results traditionally used as a base for decision-making. Then we look at the factors related to socio-technical change: How does the environmental impact change between the years, both per functional unit and when looking at the total use of petrol and diesel replaced? These changes are compared with the LCA results for the three years to highlight the proportions, and it is discussed how they could be taken into account when performing and using environmental assessment as a base for decision-making regarding strategic technology choice.
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| 3. |
- Jonasson, Karl, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring technology paths: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2005-2020
- 2005
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Ingår i: 4th European Meeting on Applied Evolutionary Economics (EMAEE).
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this paper we use a socio-technical scenario approach to illustrate how the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden can be influenced by different policy choices. With the present situation as a starting point, we introduce different feasible scenarios for the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden from 2005-2020. The scenario policies differ mainly on two points: (i) the commitment and economic incentives aiming at a rapid introduction of existing alternative transport fuels and (ii) the economic resources allocated to R&D of new, more efficient alternatives. The main focus on the first point in our market-oriented scenario and on the second in our technology-oriented scenario has implications for the development of the stocks and structures of the socio-techno-environmental system (STE-system).A first phase in the development is seen between 2005 and 2010. In the market-oriented scenario, a domestic production and a relatively widespread use of alternative transport fuels create advocates for these alternatives among producers and users. Limited explicit knowledge is gained, but legitimacy for alternatives to petrol and diesel is created. Physical artefacts are adjusted to the present alternative fuels, which are more similar to petrol and diesel than to new alternatives. In the technology-oriented scenario authorities and researchers are key actors. A high technical competence is built up in connection with pilot production plants for new alternative fuels. Both petrol and diesel are questioned, while the early alternatives are criticised for being too costly and having limited potential. A second phase, between 2011 and 2020, begins with a bifurcation of both scenarios, where one path from each is characterised by stagnation and one from each is characterised by growth, with regard to the potential for large-scale introduction of biofuels or other renewable fuels in Sweden.Our four scenarios, ending in 2020, can be seen as somewhat extreme examples of feasible outcomes resulting from policy choices made today. Numerous stocks and structures within the STE-system are affected and interact, to determine further changes of the system. In the market-oriented scenario, we illustrate consequences of breaking the dominance of entrenched technologies and demonstrating a growing market potential for alternative fuels and vehicles, while we in the technology-oriented scenario point out the value of keeping variety among niches at the early stage of a transition. The latter may add to the capability to respond to exogenous shifts in a way that is beneficial for the transition.
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| 4. |
- Jonasson, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Squamous cell carcinoma of the mobile tongue in young adults: A Swedish head & neck cancer register (SweHNCR) population-based analysis of prognosis in relation to age and stage
- 2023
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Ingår i: Oral Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1368-8375 .- 1879-0593. ; 144
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Increased incidence of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the tongue has been reported in young adults (YA) in several countries since the 1980s and confirmed in later studies. The etiology is unclear, the prognosis has been debated, and conflicting results have been published. Some studies show better survival in young adults than in older patients, some worse, and others no difference. Most studies are based on selected series or include other sites in the oral cavity. The definition of "YA" is arbitrary and varies between studies. It is thus difficult to use in general conclusions.This work uses data from the population-based Swedish Head and Neck Cancer register (SweHNCR), which has > 98% coverage. SweHNCR data includes age, gender, TNM, treatment intention, treatment given, lead times, performance status, and to a lesser degree, smoking habits. The current Swedish population is around 10 million.We analyzed outcomes for 1416 patients diagnosed with SCC of the oral tongue from 2008 to 2017 using 18-39 years to define YA age because it is the range most commonly used.We found no significant difference in relative survival (a proxy for diagnosis-specific survival) between age groups of patients treated with curative intent for SCC of the oral tongue. The stage at time of diagnosis was equally distributed among the age groups. Excess mortality rate correlated mainly with stage, subsite of the tongue, performance status, and lead time to treatment.
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| 5. |
- Jonasson, Karl, et al.
(författare)
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Time and Scale Aspects in Life Cycle Assessment of Emerging Technologies: Case Study on Alternative Transport Fuels
- 2004
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Life cycle assessments (LCAs, including well-to-wheel studies) that are to support decisions that strive to change large technical systems need to consider time- and scale-related factors that are given little attention in standard LCA procedures. We suggest that it is important to look beyond the current situation and study many possible future states, what we call stylised states, to explore general technology differences. We choose to address three issues in this report. Our case study deals with alternative fuels for transportation, and relates to a recent well-to-wheel study performed by CONCAWE, EUCAR and JRC. The methodological results, though, could be of equal importance when studying other major technologies.First, shifting time frame gives room for technical development that should affect not only the choice of performance data, but perhaps also the functional unit and the selection of technologies under study.Second, background systems such as heat and power production change over time, and we exemplify by using three different systems, mainly based on coal, natural gas and short rotation forestry, respectively. Increased production volumes may for some technologies also change the background system, which is of particular importance for technologies that are used in their own production processes. We show that for biofuels changes in background systems have consequences not only for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and agricultural land use for each fuel chain, but also for the ranking order of e.g. wheat ethanol and RME, in terms of GHG emissions. We use what we call a net output approach, which implies that a fraction of the produced biofuel is used for its own production. Accordingly, the functional unit used in this study is 1 MJ fuel available for other purposes than producing fuel.Finally, different types of feedstock are available in different quantities and different by-product markets vary in size. Allocation of environmental impact between product and by-products is here made through system expansion, and we study some possible markets for by-products. To give an example of by-product effects, current key markets for ethanol by-products in EU-15 correspond to an ethanol production that covers about 2 % of demand, and for RME about 3 %, that is, well below the 5.75 % EU biofuel target for 2010. Therefore, the GHG emissions and agricultural land use allocated to the fuels differ between a low and a high market penetration.Combining the results, we show that time and scale are important factors for the ranking of wheat ethanol, RME and wood methanol in terms of GHG emissions and agricultural land use, as the results are dependent on assumptions regarding background system and by-product markets. We indicate that agricultural land use results can be weighted in GHG terms in several ways, e.g. by using short rotation forestry or solar panels as a reference, an approach that would require further research.
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| 6. |
- Jonasson, Karl, et al.
(författare)
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Time and Scale in LCA: Case Study on Biofuels
- 2005
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Ingår i: LCM 2005 - Innovation by Life Cycle Management. - : LCM 2005 - Innovation by Life Cycle Management. - 8460965643 ; 1, s. 501-505
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Jonasson, Karl
(författare)
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Well-to-Wheel Studies and Technical Change - 9 problems with WTW studies
- 2007
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Ingår i: 15th European Biomass Conference & Exhibition - From Research to Market Deployment, Berlin, Germany, 7-11 May 2007. - : 15th European Biomass Conference & Exhibition - From Research to Market Deployment, Berlin, Germany, 7-11 May 2007.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 10. |
- Sandén, Björn, 1968, et al.
(författare)
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Competition and co-evolution among contenders: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 1974-2004
- 2005
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Ingår i: 4th European Meeting on Applied Evolutionary Economics (EMAEE).
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Building on previous research, we further develop a theoretical framework for transition analysis. In particular, we are interested in the forces that guide the direction of change. We differentiate between exogenous and endogenous change where the latter can be described by the cumulative build-up of stocks and structures, which create path dependence, within a socio-technical system. Using this theoretical framework we discuss the relationship between different emerging technological alternatives to an incumbent technology, their competition and co-evolution, and their roles as bridges and dead-ends in a transition process. We then describe and analyse an early period of an ongoing transition in the road transport sector: the history of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 1974 to 2004.
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