| 1. |
- Liemohn, Michael W., et al.
(författare)
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Model Evaluation Guidelines for Geomagnetic Index Predictions
- 2018
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Ingår i: Space Weather. - 1542-7390. ; 16:12, s. 2079-2102
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Geomagnetic indices are convenient quantities that distill the complicated physics of some region or aspect of near‐Earth space into a single parameter. Most of the best‐known indices are calculated from ground‐based magnetometer data sets, such as Dst, SYM‐H, Kp, AE, AL, and PC. Many models have been created that predict the values of these indices, often using solar wind measurements upstream from Earth as the input variables to the calculation. This document reviews the current state of models that predict geomagnetic indices and the methods used to assess their ability to reproduce the target index time series. These existing methods are synthesized into a baseline collection of metrics for benchmarking a new or updated geomagnetic index prediction model. These methods fall into two categories: (1) fit performance metrics such as root‐mean‐square error and mean absolute error that are applied to a time series comparison of model output and observations and (2) event detection performance metrics such as Heidke Skill Score and probability of detection that are derived from a contingency table that compares model and observation values exceeding (or not) a threshold value. A few examples of codes being used with this set of metrics are presented, and other aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, and uncertainties are discussed, including several caveats to consider when using geomagnetic indices.
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| 2. |
- Chen, Yuxi, et al.
(författare)
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Global Three-Dimensional Simulation of Earth's Dayside Reconnection Using a Two-Way Coupled Magnetohydrodynamics With Embedded Particle-in-Cell Model : Initial Results
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics. - : AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. - 2169-9380 .- 2169-9402. ; 122:10, s. 10318-10335
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We perform a three-dimensional (3-D) global simulation of Earth's magnetosphere with kinetic reconnection physics to study the flux transfer events (FTEs) and dayside magnetic reconnection with the recently developed magnetohydrodynamics with embedded particle-in-cell model. During the 1 h long simulation, the FTEs are generated quasi-periodically near the subsolar point and move toward the poles. We find that the magnetic field signature of FTEs at their early formation stage is similar to a "crater FTE," which is characterized by a magnetic field strength dip at the FTE center. After the FTE core field grows to a significant value, it becomes an FTE with typical flux rope structure. When an FTE moves across the cusp, reconnection between the FTE field lines and the cusp field lines can dissipate the FTE. The kinetic features are also captured by our model. A crescent electron phase space distribution is found near the reconnection site. A similar distribution is found for ions at the location where the Larmor electric field appears. The lower hybrid drift instability (LHDI) along the current sheet direction also arises at the interface of magnetosheath and magnetosphere plasma. The LHDI electric field is about 8 mV/m, and its dominant wavelength relative to the electron gyroradius agrees reasonably with Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) observations.
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