| 1. |
- Andersson, Linus, 1979-, et al.
(författare)
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Neurocognitive processes underlying heuristic and normative probability judgments
- 2020
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Ingår i: Cognition. - : ELSEVIER. - 0010-0277 .- 1873-7838. ; 196, s. 1-7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Judging two events in combination (A&B) as more probable than one of the events (A) is known as a conjunction fallacy. According to dual-process explanations of human judgment and decision making, the fallacy is due to the application of a heuristic, associative cognitive process. Avoiding the fallacy has been suggested to require the recruitment of a separate process that can apply normative rules. We investigated these assumptions using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during conjunction tasks. Judgments, whether correct or not, engaged a network of brain regions identical to that engaged during similarity judgments. Avoidance of the conjunction fallacy additionally, and uniquely, involved a fronto-parietal network previously linked to supervisory, analytic control processes. The results lend credibility to the idea that incorrect probability judgments are the result of a representativeness heuristic that requires additional neurocognitive resources to avoid.
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| 2. |
- Bartusch, Cajsa, 1965-, et al.
(författare)
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Opening the black box of demand response : Exploring the cognitive processes
- 2024
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Ingår i: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews. - : Elsevier. - 1364-0321 .- 1879-0690. ; 189
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Evaluations of price-based demand response programs tend to focus on users' electricity use patterns and/or their practical experiences. Less is known about the effects that price-based demand response programs have on cognitive drivers and barriers to energy-using behaviors and habits, or how well these predict timing of households' electricity use. This study seeks to address this gap by evaluating the effects of a mandatory demand-based time-of-use distribution tariff, using electricity-meter and questionnaire data in an intervention and a reference area, and a structural equation model following the theory of planned behavior. Although no effect was found of the tariff on the actual proportion of peak-hour use, there were significant effects on users’ intentions and motivations to shift electricity use to off-peak hours. The absence of effect on the proportion of peak-hour use seems explained by the facts that only a minority of consumers were aware of their tariffs, and by the (at least partially correct) beliefs that consumers used very little electricity and most of it was already used in off-peak hours. The relationships between intentions, drivers and the actual proportion of peak-hour use were stronger in the intervention area, compared to the reference area. Interestingly, this was true not only for the motivation targeted by the tariff, economic savings, but also for sustainability concerns and social norms. This suggests that effects of the tariff may partly run via other non-monetary motivators.
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| 3. |
- Collsiöö, August, et al.
(författare)
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Is numerical information always beneficial? : Verbal and numerical cue-integration in additive and non-additive tasks
- 2023
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Ingår i: Cognition. - : Elsevier. - 0010-0277 .- 1873-7838. ; 240
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- When people use rule-based integration of abstracted cues to make multiple-cue judgments they tend to default to linear additive integration of the cues, which may interfere with efficient learning in non-additive tasks. We hypothesize that this effect becomes especially pronounced when cues are presented numerically rather than verbally, because numbers elicit expectations about a task with a simple numerical solution that can be appropriately addressed by linear and additive integration. This predicts that, relative to a verbal format, a numerical format should be advantageous for learning in additive tasks, but detrimental for learning in non-additive tasks. In two experiments, we find support for the hypothesis that a verbal format can improve learning in non-additive tasks. The division-of-labor between cognitive processes observed in previous research (Juslin et al., 2008), with cue abstraction in additive tasks and exemplar memory in non-additive tasks, was only present in conditions with numeric information and may therefore in part be driven by the use of numeric formats. This illustrates how surface characteristic of stimuli can elicit different priors about the nature of the variables and the generative model that produced the cues and the criterion. We fitted cue-abstraction and exemplar algorithms by PNP-modeling (Sundh et al., 2021). At the end of training both cue abstraction and exemplar memory processes primarily involved exact analytic processes marred by occasional error, rather than the noisy and approximate intuitive processes typically assumed in previous studies – specifically, cue abstraction was primarily implemented by number crunching and exemplar memory by rote memorization.
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| 4. |
- Collsiöö, August, et al.
(författare)
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Unpacking Intuitive and Analytic Memory Sampling in Multiple-Cue Judgment
- 2023
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Ingår i: Sampling in Judgment and Decision Making. - : Cambridge University Press. - 9781009002042 ; , s. 177-204
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Cognitive models that assume that judgments are based on processes of sampling from memory have a long history in psychology and take a variety of forms, but the exact cognitive interpretations of them differ, are unclear, or remain elusive. Using the Precise/Not Precise (PNP) model (Sundh et al., 2021) we have revived an old approach to intuition and analyses, originally proposed by Egon Brunswik (1956). The model is based on the distinction between analytic algorithms that usually yield the same exact output and approximate intuitive algorithms that are rarely far off the mark but are inevitably perturbed by a random noise. The PNP model distinguishes intuitive and analytic processes depending on the error distributions around the model estimates. By combining the PNP model with specific cognitive algorithms, one can determine if analytic or intuitive cognitive processes implement the cognitive algorithms. In this chapter, we argue that also the memory sampling processes observed in multiple-cue judgments, characterized by good fit of the Generalized Context Model (Nosofsky, 2015), come in two different forms: one that involves analytic application of root-memorized individual exemplars and one that involves a noisy similarity-based inference about the likely criterion. We demonstrate that different parameterizations of the Generalized Context Model naturally imply response distributions that realize the distinction implied by the PNP model. With data from multiple-cue judgment, we show how the PNP model identifies, not only intuitive and analytic rule-based processes, but also processes of memory sampling with the empirical hallmarks of intuition and analysis.
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| 5. |
- El Gohary, Fouad, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating user understanding and exposure effects of demand-based tariffs
- 2022
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Ingår i: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews. - : Elsevier. - 1364-0321 .- 1879-0690. ; 155
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Conventionally, demand response functions by communicating to electricity users through price signals embedded in their tariffs. These signals are intended to encourage a change in behavior, which hinges on the ability of users to understand their tariff and link it to the appropriate curtailment actions. This study focuses on demand-based tariffs, evaluating user's understanding of these tariffs and the conceptual grasp of power (rate of energy consumption) that they implicitly require. It also explores whether users exposed to these tariffs for extended periods develop a better understanding of them. Using a survey, the following points are sequentially evaluated: (1) Respondents' abilities to intuitively distinguish between energy/power (2) Their understanding of the different effects of curtailment actions under four distinct tariffs (3) Whether those subject to demand-based pricing outperform those subject to energy-based pricing. Despite a weaker conceptual understanding of power compared to energy, there were no significant differences between respondents' understanding of energy and demand-based tariffs. Comparing those subject to energy and demand-based pricing reveals that a majority were unaware of their own tariff (and hence which group they fall into), but for the minority of users who correctly identified their own tariffs, those subject to demand-based pricing outperform their energy-based counterparts. When presented with clear and instructive tariffs, respondents are largely able to deduce the consequences of curtailment actions, despite a weak conceptual understanding of power. A deeper problem is that the price signal may be entirely disregarded by an apathetic majority, reaching only an inquisitive minority.
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| 6. |
- El Gohary, Fouad, et al.
(författare)
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Getting the signal : Do electricity users meet the preconditions for making informed decisions on demand response?
- 2023
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Ingår i: Energy Research & Social Science. - : Elsevier. - 2214-6296 .- 2214-6326. ; 100
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Demand response refers to changes in power consumption by electricity users in response to certain conditions on the electricity market. Anticipated to play a major role in the energy transition, demand response is conventionally exercised through network tariffs, which serve as a medium for price signals intended to incentivize and guide electricity users on how to best behave. Considerable attention has been devoted to the unresolved question of whether users are willing to respond to these signals, a question premised on the implicit assumption of cognizant users making informed decisions. Less attention has been dedicated to evaluating the validity of this assumption, and the extent to which users actually internalize these signals prior to making any decision on how to respond. This study posits that prior to making an informed decision on how to act, an electricity user must first “qualify” through meeting a set of preconditions. These preconditions are captured by a proposed three-stage framework that involves i) receiving the price signal (being aware of the tariff), ii) processing the price signal (comprehending its features) and iii) assimilating the price signal (understanding how behavior influences costs). Evaluating this framework using a survey, the study finds that only 3.8–8.5 % of respondents clear all three stages. This minority is substantially more likely to contain older villa-residents, who are comparatively more concerned with their costs and read their bills more frequently. The findings of this study demonstrate that the “audience” of tariff-based price signals are a small fraction of what is commonly supposed, and that research and policy should shift from a dominant focus on the magnitude of these price signals, towards alternative or improved strategies for communication and engagement.
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| 7. |
- Forsgren, Mattias, et al.
(författare)
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Further perceptions of probability : In defence of associative models
- 2023
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Ingår i: Psychological review. - : American Psychological Association (APA). - 0033-295X .- 1939-1471. ; 130:5, s. 1383-1400
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Extensive research in the behavioral sciences has addressed people’s ability to learn stationary probabilities, which stay constant over time, but only recently have there been attempts to model the cognitive processes whereby people learn—and track—nonstationary probabilities. In this context, the old debate on whether learning occurs by the gradual formation of associations or by occasional shifts between hypotheses representing beliefs about distal states of the world has resurfaced. Gallistel et al. (2014) pitched the two theories against each other in a nonstationary probability learning task. They concluded that various qualitative patterns in their data were incompatible with trial-by-trial associative learning and could only be explained by a hypothesis-testing model. Here, we contest that claim and demonstrate that it was premature. First, we argue that their experimental paradigm consisted of two distinct tasks: probability tracking (an estimation task) and change detection (a decision-making task). Next, we present a model that uses the (associative) delta learning rule for the probability tracking task and bounded evidence accumulation for the change detection task. We find that this combination of two highly established theories accounts well for all qualitative phenomena and outperforms the alternative model proposed by Gallistel et al. (2014) in a quantitative model comparison. In the spirit of cumulative science, we conclude that current experimental data on human learning of nonstationary probabilities can be explained as a combination of associative learning and bounded evidence accumulation and does not require a new model.
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| 8. |
- Forsgren, Mattias, et al.
(författare)
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”The report of my death was an exaggeration” – no evidence to rule out associative learning in non-stationary probability learning
- 2023
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 18th SweCog Conference, Swedish Cognitive Society, Göteborg 2023, 5-6 October. - : THE UNIVERSITY OF SKÖVDE. - 9789198903805 ; , s. 27-30
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The debate between empiricists and rationalists on whether human knowledge primarily stems from observations or reason has recently been reinvigorated in the context of learning of non-stationary probabilities. An (implicit) consensus has emerged in it being modelled using some version of the delta-rule – a gradient descent algorithm for associative learning. This has been challenged by recent work claiming that new experiment data is only compatible with a model which tests discrete hypotheses about the underlying probability distribution, why associative models must be rejected. Here, we show that this claim was premature. Using maximum likelihood based fitting and formal, quantitative model comparison, we show that a combination of the delta-rule and sequential evidence accumulation can indeed explain all available data substantially better than the suggested hypothesis testing model. We conclude that there is no evidence to rule out a role for associative learning. However, this does not mean that we should instead rule out models involving hypotheses about the world. Outside the lab, we often have rich cognitive models that we must somehow reconcile with a stream of observations. How that happens should be a principal concern in future work.
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| 9. |
- Guath, Mona, et al.
(författare)
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Nudging for eco-friendly online shopping-Attraction effect curbs price sensitivity
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Psychology. - : Elsevier. - 0272-4944 .- 1522-9610. ; 81
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The current study investigates the efficiency of nudging people to purchase more eco-friendly electronic devices in an emulated online milieu. To this end, participants were presented with three different products (smart phones, monitors and portable speakers) with two different nudges (attraction and default) and a control condition. Results from two experiments show that, while there was already a strong preference to make eco-friendly choices in control conditions, when eco-friendly choices were costlier, there was a clear positive effect of an attraction nudge on participants' eco-friendly preferences. In other words, when product prices were generally high, or when there are large price differences between options, the attraction nudge resulted in a higher probability of eco-friendly choices compared to when no attraction effect is used. The default nudge was less efficient, sometimes producing a negative effect, while its effect was mediated by whether participants endorsed a strong bio-centric worldview, in which case the default nudge promoted more eco-friendly choices. The results are discussed in relation to potential challenges pertaining to deceit and perceived paternalistic intentions with use of nudges.
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| 10. |
- Guath, Mona, et al.
(författare)
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Why do people pursue goals sequentially when they try to balance cost and utility?
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Cognitive Psychology. - : Informa UK Limited. - 2044-5911 .- 2044-592X. ; 33:8, s. 931-950
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While research in Cognitive Psychology has investigated people's ability to use feedback to pursue a single goal, little research has addressed their ability to use feedback to pursue multiple goals. We investigated the reasons for the sequential goal pursuit observed in previous research using a multiple-cue-probability learning task aiming at teaching energy efficiency, specifically, if it derives from cognitive constraints. The task was to balance utility (comfort) against cost, with an explicit budget for both variables (Experiment 1); with utility expressed in an accessible unit (Experiment 2); and with utility represented by a linear function (Experiment 3). The results suggest that the sequential goal pursuit behaviour is driven by limits on cognitive capacity that are little affected by training and goal phrasing. One cognitive constraint was the difficulty with interpreting the effect of actions on the nonlinear utility, which reinforced an initial priority assigned to actions on the linear cost.
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