| 1. |
- Bengtsson, Lisa, 1981-, et al.
(författare)
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Large-Scale Dynamical Response to Subgrid-Scale Organization Provided by Cellular Automata
- 2011
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Ingår i: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. - 0022-4928 .- 1520-0469. ; 68:12, s. 3132-3144
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Due to the limited resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, sub-grid scale physical processes are parameterized, and represented by grid-box means. However, some physical processes are better represented by a mean and its variance, a typical example being deep convection, with scales varying from individual updraughts to organized meso-scale systems. In this study, we investigate, in an idealized setting, whether a cellular automaton (CA) can be used in order to enhance sub-grid scale organization by forming clusters representative of the convective scales, and yield a stochastic representation of sub-grid scale variability. We study the transfer of energy from the convective to the larger atmospheric scales through nonlinear wave interactions. This is done using a shallow water (SW) model initialized with equatorial wave modes. By letting a CA act on a finer resolution than that of the SW model, it can be expected to mimic the effect of, for instance, gravity wave propagation on convective organization. Employing the CA-scheme allows to reproduce the observed behaviour of slowing down equatorial Kelvin modes in convectively active regions, while random perturbations fail to feed back on the large-scale flow. The analysis of kinetic energy spectra demonstrates that the CA sub-grid scheme introduces energy back-scatter from the smallest model scales to medium scales. However, the amount of energy back-scattered depends almost solely on the memory time scale introduced to the sub-grid scheme, whereas any variation in spatial scales generated does not influence the energy spectra markedly.
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| 2. |
- Gabriel, A., et al.
(författare)
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Zonal asymmetries in middle atmospheric ozone and water vapour derived from Odin satellite data 2001-2010
- 2011
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 11:18, s. 9865-9885
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Stationary wave patterns in middle atmospheric ozone (O(3)) and water vapour (H(2)O) are an important factor in the atmospheric circulation, but there is a strong gap in diagnosing and understanding their configuration and origin. Based on Odin satellite data from 2001 to 2010 we investigate the stationary wave patterns in O(3) and H(2)O as indicated by the seasonal long-term means of the zonally asymmetric components O(3)* = O(3)-[O(3)] and H(2)O* = H(2)O-[H(2)O] ([O(3)], [H(2)O]: zonal means). At mid-and polar latitudes we find a pronounced wave one pattern in both constituents. In the Northern Hemisphere, the wave patterns increase during autumn, maintain their strength during winter and decay during spring, with maximum amplitudes of about 10-20% of the zonal mean values. During winter, the wave one in O(3)* shows a maximum over the North Pacific/Aleutians and a minimum over the North Atlantic/Northern Europe and a double-peak structure with enhanced amplitude in the lower and in the upper stratosphere. The wave one in H(2)O* extends from the lower stratosphere to the upper mesosphere with a westward shift in phase with increasing height including a jump in phase at upper stratosphere altitudes. In the Southern Hemisphere, similar wave patterns occur mainly during southern spring. By comparing the observed wave patterns in O(3)* and H(2)O* with a linear solution of a steady-state transport equation for a zonally asymmetric tracer component we find that these wave patterns are primarily due to zonally asymmetric transport by geostrophically balanced winds, which are derived from observed temperature profiles. In addition temperature-dependent photochemistry contributes substantially to the spatial structure of the wave pattern in O(3)*. Further influences, e. g., zonal asymmetries in eddy mixing processes, are discussed.
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| 3. |
- Janzon, Erik
(författare)
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Local Effects On Icing Forecasts for Wind Power In Cold Climate
- 2022
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis will examine the local effects of land cover on icing forecasts. In Paper I, a single column model was used to test the sensitivity of icing forecasts to land cover fraction. Here, the ice accretion forecast was found to be highly sensitive to the wind magnitude response to the surface roughness. Diabatic effects related to the surface albedo played a secondary role, significant in cases with strong solar irradiance. Paper II examined the impact of 2-dimensional patterns of land cover heterogeneity on the effective surface roughness and blending height using large eddy simulation over a diurnal cycle of solar irradiance. The blending height--or the elevation at which the atmospheric response to the underlying land cover becomes horizontally homogeneous--has been proposed as a guide for coupling numerical weather models to surface parameterizations. In stable conditions, when the atmospheric boundary layer height was shallow, the blending height over surfaces with large heterogeneity length scale was found to be much lower than that of analytical models from previous studies. A new formula for a dynamic blending height was proposed taking this effect into account. The effective surface roughness was found to decrease with increasing land cover heterogeneity. The wind power response from an idealized wind turbine with 80-meter hub height to the effective surface roughness was shown, with a positive response in wind power with increasing land cover heterogeneity. The wind power response was smaller and less systematic with wind turbines extending above the blending height, further highlighting the utility of an accurate formulation for this variable.
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| 4. |
- Janzon, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling the effects of surface heterogeneity on the internal boundary layer during a diurnal cycle
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- To characterize the effects of subgrid surface heterogeneity, the blending height concept has been developed as a coupling strategy for surface parameterization schemes used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Previous modelling studies have tested this concept using stationary conditions with one-dimensional strips of surface roughness. Here, Large Eddy Simulations (LES) are used to examine the response of the blending height and effective surface roughness to two-dimensional chessboard patterns of alternating high and low vegetation given a diurnal cycle of solar irradiance. In each experiment, the length scale of the roughness elements is increased while the total domain fraction of each vegetation type is kept constant. The effective surface roughness was found to decrease with increasing length scale of surface cover heterogeneity, which is shown to have a significant impact on estimated wind turbine power calculated from logarithmic wind profiles. In stable conditions, the blending height in cases with large heterogeneity length scales was found to exist well above the surface layer. As the behavior of the blending height has implications for coupled models, a simple model for the blending height as a function of heterogeneity length scale is introduced.
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| 5. |
- Janzon, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling the flow response to surface heterogeneity during a semi-idealized diurnal cycle
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. - : American Meteorological Society. - 1558-8424 .- 1558-8432. ; 62:4, s. 511-527
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To characterize the effects of subgrid surface heterogeneity, the blending height concept has been developed as a coupling strategy for surface parameterization schemes used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Previous modelling studies have tested this concept using stationary conditions with one-dimensional strips of surface roughness. Here, Large Eddy Simulations (LES) are used to examine the response of the blending height and effective surface roughness to \reva{tiled land cover heterogeneity, or a two-dimensional chessboard pattern }of alternating high and low vegetation given a diurnal cycle of solar irradiance \revg{in subarctic conditions}. In each experiment, the length scale of the roughness elements is increased while the total domain fraction of each vegetation type is kept constant. The effective surface roughness was found to decrease with increasing length scale of surface cover heterogeneity, which is shown to have a significant impact on estimated wind turbine power calculated from logarithmic wind profiles. In stable conditions, the blending height in cases with large heterogeneity length scales was found to exist well above the surface layer. As the behavior of the blending height has implications for coupled models, a simple model for the blending height as a function of heterogeneity length scale is introduced.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Körnich, Heiner, 1971-
(författare)
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Predictability of the coupled troposphere-stratosphere system
- 2010
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Ingår i: Seminar on Predictability in the European and Atlantic regions from days to years.. - Reading, UK. : ECMWF.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Tropospheric predictability is typically limited to about 20 days due to the chaotic nature of weather. The tropospheric variability contains planetary waves which can propagate vertically into the winter stratosphere, where they break and drive a residual meridional circulation. For cases of exceptionally strong planetary wave activity, this circulation can induce a polar stratospheric warming and a subsequent downward propagation of the circulation anomaly to the troposphere. This process provides an increased predictability for the troposphere. The predictability is associated with the zonal mean zonal wind around 60ºN and the Northern Annular Mode, which tends to a negative phase after a stratospheric warming event. The negative Northern Annular Mode phase yields colder temperatures in Mid- and Northern Europe. Thus, the coupled troposphere-stratosphere system improves tropospheric predictability on monthly to seasonal time-scales. This article reviews briefly the observed phenomena, the current theoretical understanding, and the role for numerical weather prediction.
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| 8. |
- Syed, Faisal Saeed, et al.
(författare)
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Extratropical Influences on the Inter-Annual Variability of South-Asian Monsoon
- 2012
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 38:7-8, s. 1661-1674
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The effects of extratropical dynamics on the interannual variations in South-Asian Monsoon (SAM) are examined. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and CRU precipitation data, a conditional maximum covariance analysis is performed on sea level pressure, 200 hPa geopotential heights and the SAM rainfall by removing the linear effects of El-Niño Southern Oscillation from the fields. It is found that two modes provide a strong connection between the upper-level circulation in the Atlantic/European region and SAM rainfall: the Circumglobal Teleconnection (CGT) and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). The structures in the 200 hPa heights of both modes in the Atlantic region are similar in the Atlantic region, and their southeastward extension to South Asia (SA) also corresponds to upper-level ridges (in their positive phases) in slightly different positions. Nevertheless, the influence of both modes on SAM rainfall is distinct. Whereas a positive CGT is related to a widespread increase of rainfall in SAM, a positive SNAO is related to a precipitation dipole with its positive phase over Pakistan and the negative phase over northern India. The physical mechanisms for the influence of CGT and SNAO on SAM are related to the upper-level geopotential anomaly which affects the amplitude and position of the low-level convergence. The small displacements of the centers of these responses and the low level cold advection from the north east of SA in case of SNAO explain the differences in the corresponding SAM rainfall distributions. These findings are confirmed with the relatively high-resolution coupled climate model EC-Earth, which gives confidence in the physical basis and robustness of these extratropical variability modes and their influence on the South-Asian monsoon rainfall.
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| 9. |
- Syed, Faisal Saeed, 1971-, et al.
(författare)
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On the fog variability over south Asia
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An increasing trend in fog frequencies over south Asia during winter in the last few decades has resulted in large economical losses and has caused substantial difficulties in the daily lives of people. In order to better understand the fog phenomenon, we investigated the climatology, inter-annual variability and trends in the fog occurrence from 1976 to 2010 using observational data from 82 stations, well distributed over India and Pakistan. Fog blankets large area from Pakistan to Bangladesh across north India from west to east running almost parallel to south of the Himalayas. An EOF analysis revealed that the fog variability over the whole region is coupled and must therefore be governed by some large scale phenomenon on the inter-annual time scale. Significant trends were found in the fog frequencies and this increase is not gradual, as seen in the humidity, but shows two distinct regimes shifts in 1990 and 1998 with respect to both mean and variance. The fog is also detected in ERA-Interim 3 hourly, surface and model level forecast data when using the concept of “cross-over temperature” combined with boundary layer stability. This detected fog index is able to reproduce the regime shift around 1998 and shows that the method can be applied to detect fog over south Asia. The inter-annual variability seems to be associated with the wave train originating from north Atlantic in the upper atmosphere that causes higher pressure over the region, resulting in increased boundary layer stability and surface-near relative humidity. The trend and shifts in the fog occurrence seems to be associated with the gradual increasing trend in relative humidity from 1990 onwards.
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| 10. |
- Syed, Faisal Saeed, 1971-
(författare)
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On the intra-seasonal to decadal climate variability over South-Asia
- 2011
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- South Asia, a land of contrasting landscapes, seasons and climates, is highly vulnerable to climate variability over intra-seasonal to decadal time scales. In winter, precipitation over the western parts of south Asia and fog over the Indo-Gangetic (IG) plains are the two major climatic features. During summer most of the region comes under the grip of monsoon. Winter precipitation over the north-western parts of South Asia is associated with eastwards propagating ‘western disturbances’ originating mostly from Mediterranean. Both observations and regional climate-model simulations show that the winter precipitation increases/decreases during the positive/negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the warm/cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During these phases, the intensification of western disturbances results from the effect of an enhanced trough visible at sea-level as well as at higher altitudes over central Asia. The inter-annual variability of fog is coupled over IG plains with a significant trend in the fog frequencies, both in observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. This increase shows two distinct regime shifts in 1990 and 1998 with respect to mean and variance, this in contrast to a gradual increase of the humidity over the region. The thermodynamic analysis of the intra-seasonal summer monsoon active phases (APs) over Pakistan revealed that a few days before AP, an upper-level warm anomaly appears over the northern Hindu Kush-Himalaya region and is reinforced by surface heating. The baroclinic height anomalies, with a low-level anticyclone located east of the warming, causes a moisture convergence, strong enough to overcome the preexisting stable atmospheric conditions. The extratropical dynamics also play an important role for the inter-annual variation of the South-Asian monsoon. It is found that the two leading modes between the upper-level circulation in the Atlantic/European region and monsoon rainfall are the Circumglobal Teleconnection (CGT) and the summer NAO. The positive phase of the CGT is related to a widespread increase of monsoon rainfall, and a positive summer NAO is related to a precipitation dipole with its positive anomaly over Pakistan.
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