| 1. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 3. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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| 4. |
- Schijven, Dick, et al.
(författare)
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Large-scale analysis of structural brain asymmetries in schizophrenia via the ENIGMA consortium
- 2023
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 120:14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Left-right asymmetry is an important organizing feature of the healthy brain that may be altered in schizophrenia, but most studies have used relatively small samples and heterogeneous approaches, resulting in equivocal findings. We carried out the largest case-control study of structural brain asymmetries in schizophrenia, with MRI data from 5,080 affected individuals and 6,015 controls across 46 datasets, using a single image analysis protocol. Asymmetry indexes were calculated for global and regional cortical thickness, surface area, and subcortical volume measures. Differences of asymmetry were calculated between affected individuals and controls per dataset, and effect sizes were meta-analyzed across datasets. Small average case-control differences were observed for thickness asymmetries of the rostral anterior cingulate and the middle temporal gyrus, both driven by thinner left-hemispheric cortices in schizophrenia. Analyses of these asymmetries with respect to the use of antipsychotic medication and other clinical variables did not show any significant associations. Assessment of age- and sex-specific effects revealed a stronger average leftward asymmetry of pallidum volume between older cases and controls. Case-control differences in a multivariate context were assessed in a subset of the data (N = 2,029), which revealed that 7% of the variance across all structural asymmetries was explained by case-control status. Subtle case-control differences of brain macrostructural asymmetry may reflect differences at the molecular, cytoarchitectonic, or circuit levels that have functional relevance for the disorder. Reduced left middle temporal cortical thickness is consistent with altered left-hemisphere language network organization in schizophrenia.
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| 5. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 6. |
- Schleuning, Matthias, et al.
(författare)
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Specialization of Mutualistic Interaction Networks Decreases toward Tropical Latitudes
- 2012
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Ingår i: Current Biology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-0445 .- 0960-9822. ; 22:20, s. 1925-1931
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Species-rich tropical communities are expected to be more specialized than their temperate counterparts [1-3]. Several studies have reported increasing biotic specialization toward the tropics [4-7], whereas others have not found latitudinal trends once accounting for sampling bias [8, 9] or differences in plant diversity [10, 11]. Thus, the direction of the latitudinal Specialization gradient remains contentious. With an unprecedented global data set, we investigated how biotic specialization between plants and animal pollinators or seed dispersers is associated with latitude, past and contemporary climate, and plant diversity. We show that in contrast to expectation, biotic specialization of mutualistic networks is significantly lower at tropical than at temperate latitudes. Specialization was more closely related to contemporary climate than to past climate stability, suggesting that current conditions have a stronger effect on biotic specialization than historical community stability. Biotic specialization decreased with increasing local and regional plant diversity. This suggests that high specialization of mutualistic interactions is a response of pollinators and seed dispersers to low plant diversity. This could explain why the latitudinal specialization gradient is reversed relative to the latitudinal diversity gradient. Low mutualistic network specialization in the tropics suggests higher tolerance against extinctions in tropical than in temperate communities.
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| 7. |
- Kaiser, Antonia, et al.
(författare)
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A Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effects of a 12-Week High- vs. Low-Intensity Exercise Intervention on Hippocampal Structure and Function in Healthy, Young Adults
- 2022
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Psychiatry. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1664-0640. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Physical exercise affects hippocampal structure and function, but the underlying neural mechanisms and the effects of exercise intensity remain incompletely understood. Therefore, we undertook a comprehensive, multi-modal 3T and 7T MRI randomized controlled trial (Netherlands Trial Register - NL5847) in which we randomized 52 young, non-athletic volunteers to a 12-week low- or high-intensity exercise program. Using state-of-the-art methods, we investigated changes in hippocampal volume, as well as changes in vasculature, neuro-metabolites, and peripheral growth factors as potential underpinnings. Cardiorespiratory fitness improved over time (p < 0.001), but no interaction with exercise intensity was found (p = 0.48). Accordingly, we did not observe significant interactions between exercise condition and time on MRI measures (all p > 0.06). However, we found a significant decrease in right hippocampal volume (p < 0.01), an increase in left hippocampal glutathione (p < 0.01), and a decrease of left hippocampal cerebral blood volume (p = 0.01) over time, regardless of exercise condition. Additional exploratory analyses showed that changes in brain-derived neurotrophic factor (p = 0.01), insulin-like growth-factor (p = 0.03), and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex N-acetyl-aspartate levels (p = 0.01) were positively associated with cardiorespiratory fitness changes. Furthermore, a trend toward a positive association of fitness and gray-matter cerebral blood flow (p = 0.06) was found. Our results do not provide evidence for differential effects between high-intensity (aerobic) and low-intensity (toning) exercise on hippocampal structure and function in young adults. However, we show small but significant effects of exercise on hippocampal volume, neurometabolism and vasculature across exercise conditions. Moreover, our exploratory results suggest that exercise might not specifically only benefit hippocampal structure and function, but rather has a more widespread effect. These findings suggest that, in agreement with previous MRI studies demonstrating moderate to strong effects in elderly and diseased populations, but none to only mild effects in young healthy cohorts, the benefits of exercise on the studied brain measures may be age-dependent and restorative rather than stimulatory. Our study highlights the importance of a multi-modal, whole-brain approach to assess macroscopic and microscopic changes underlying exercise-induced brain changes, to better understand the role of exercise as a potential non-pharmacological intervention.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Kaiser, Matthias J., et al.
(författare)
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Frequency of Malnutrition in Older Adults : A Multinational Perspective Using the Mini Nutritional Assessment
- 2010
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Ingår i: Journal of The American Geriatrics Society. - : Wiley. - 0002-8614 .- 1532-5415. ; 58:9, s. 1734-1738
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES To provide pooled data on the prevalence of malnutrition in elderly people as evaluated using the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA). DESIGN Retrospective pooled analysis of previously published datasets. SETTING Hospital, rehabilitation, nursing home, community. PARTICIPANTS Four thousand five hundred seven people (75.2% female) with a mean age of 82.3. MEASUREMENTS The prevalence of malnutrition in the combined database and in the four settings was examined. RESULTS Twenty-four data sets with information on full MNA classification from researchers from 12 countries were submitted. In the combined database, the prevalence of malnutrition was 22.8%, with considerable differences between the settings (rehabilitation, 50.5%; hospital, 38.7%; nursing home, 13.8%; community, 5.8%). In the combined database, the "at risk" group had a prevalence of 46.2%. Consequently, approximately two-thirds of study participants were at nutritional risk or malnourished. CONCLUSION The MNA has gained worldwide acceptance and shows a high prevalence of malnutrition in different settings, except for the community. Because of its specific geriatric focus, the MNA should be recommended as the basis for nutritional evaluation in older people.
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| 10. |
- Kaiser, Sebastian, et al.
(författare)
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Does Cluster Encapsulation Inhibit Sintering? Stabilization of Size-Selected Pt Clusters on Fe3O4(001) by SMSI
- 2023
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Ingår i: ACS Catalysis. - 2155-5435. ; 13:9, s. 6203-6213
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The metastability of supported metal nanoparticles limits their application in heterogeneous catalysis at elevated temperatures due to their tendency to sinter. One strategy to overcome these thermodynamic limits on reducible oxide supports is encapsulation via strong metal-support interaction (SMSI). While annealing-induced encapsulation is a well-explored phenomenon for extended nanoparticles, it is as yet unknown whether the same mechanisms hold for subnanometer clusters, where concomitant sintering and alloying might play a significant role. In this article, we explore the encapsulation and stability of size-selected Pt5, Pt10, and Pt19 clusters deposited on Fe3O4(001). In a multimodal approach using temperature-programmed desorption (TPD), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), we demonstrate that SMSI indeed leads to the formation of a defective, FeO-like conglomerate encapsulating the clusters. By stepwise annealing up to 1023 K, we observe the succession of encapsulation, cluster coalescence, and Ostwald ripening, resulting in square-shaped crystalline Pt particles, independent of the initial cluster size. The respective sintering onset temperatures scale with the cluster footprint and thus size. Remarkably, while small encapsulated clusters can still diffuse as a whole, atom detachment and thus Ostwald ripening are successfully suppressed up to 823 K, i.e., 200 K above the Hüttig temperature that indicates the thermodynamic stability limit.
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