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- Pantazis, N, et al.
(författare)
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Determining the likely place of HIV acquisition for migrants in Europe combining subject-specific information and biomarkers data
- 2019
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Ingår i: Statistical methods in medical research. - : SAGE Publications. - 1477-0334 .- 0962-2802. ; 28:7, s. 1979-1997
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In most HIV-positive individuals, infection time is only known to lie between the time an individual started being at risk for HIV and diagnosis time. However, a more accurate estimate of infection time is very important in certain cases. For example, one of the objectives of the Advancing Migrant Access to Health Services in Europe (aMASE) study was to determine if HIV-positive migrants, diagnosed in Europe, were infected pre- or post-migration. We propose a method to derive subject-specific estimates of unknown infection times using information from HIV biomarkers’ measurements, demographic, clinical, and behavioral data. We assume that CD4 cell count (CD4) and HIV-RNA viral load trends after HIV infection follow a bivariate linear mixed model. Using post-diagnosis CD4 and viral load measurements and applying the Bayes’ rule, we derived the posterior distribution of the HIV infection time, whereas the prior distribution was informed by AIDS status at diagnosis and behavioral data. Parameters of the CD4–viral load and time-to-AIDS models were estimated using data from a large study of individuals with known HIV infection times (CASCADE). Simulations showed substantial predictive ability (e.g. 84% of the infections were correctly classified as pre- or post-migration). Application to the aMASE study ( n = 2009) showed that 47% of African migrants and 67% to 72% of migrants from other regions were most likely infected post-migration. Applying a Bayesian method based on bivariate modeling of CD4 and viral load, and subject-specific information, we found that the majority of HIV-positive migrants in aMASE were most likely infected after their migration to Europe.
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- Henkel, C., et al.
(författare)
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Molecular line emission in NGC 4945, imaged with ALMA
- 2018
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 615
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- NGC 4945 is one of the nearest (D ≈ 3.8 Mpc; 1 00 ≈ 19 pc) starburst galaxies. To investigate the structure, dynamics, and composition of the dense nuclear gas of this galaxy, ALMA band 3 (λ ≈ 3−4 mm) observations were carried out with ≈2 00 resolution. Three HCN and two HC + isotopologues, CS, C 3 H 2 , SiO, HCO, and CH 3 C 2 H were measured. Spectral line imaging demonstrates the presence of a rotating nuclear disk of projected size 10 00 × 2 00 reaching out to a galactocentric radius of r ≈ 100 pc with position angle PA = 45 ◦ ± 2 ◦ , inclination i = 75 ◦ ± 2 ◦ and an unresolved bright central core of size <∼ 2 00 . The continuum source, representing mostly free-free radiation from star forming regions, is more compact than the nuclear disk by a linear factor of two but shows the same position angle and is centered 0 00 . 39 ± 0 00 . 14 northeast of the nuclear accretion disk defined by H 2 O maser emission. Near the systemic velocity but outside the nuclear disk, both HCN J = 1 → 0 and CS J = 2 → 1 delineate molecular arms of length >∼ 15 00 ( >∼ 285 pc) on opposite sides of the dynamical center. These are connected by a (deprojected) ≈ 0.6 kpc sized molecular bridge, likely a dense gaseous bar seen almost ends-on, shifting gas from the front and back side into the nuclear disk. Modeling this nuclear disk located farther inside (r <∼ 100 pc) with tilted rings provides a good fit by inferring a coplanar outflow reaching a characteristic deprojected velocity of ≈50 km s −1 . All our molecular lines, with the notable exception of CH 3 C 2 H, show significant absorption near the systemic velocity (≈571 km s −1 ), within the range ≈500-660 km s −1 . Apparently, only molecular transitions with low critical H 2 density (n crit<∼ 10 4 cm −3 ) do not show absorption. The velocity field of the nuclear disk, derived from CH 3 C 2 H, provides evidence for rigid rotation in the inner few arcseconds and a dynamical mass of M tot = (2.1 ± 0.2) × 10 8 M inside a galactocentric radius of 2 00 . 45 (≈45 pc), with a significantly flattened rotation curve farther out. Velocity integrated line intensity maps with most pronounced absorption show molecular peak positions up to ≈1 00 . 5 (≈30 pc) southwest of the continuum peak, presumably due to absorption, which appears to be most severe slightly northeast of the nuclear maser disk. A nitrogen isotope ratio of 14 N/ 15 N ≈ 200-450 is estimated. This range of values is much higher then previously reported on a tentative basis. Therefore, because 15 N is less abundant than expected, the question for strong 15 N enrichment by massive star ejecta in starbursts still remains to be settled.
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