| 1. |
- Asif Rifat, Adnan, et al.
(författare)
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Effectiveness of Low-impact development for mitigating the risk of pluvial flooding : A case study in Trelleborg, Sweden
- 2024
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Increasing imperviousness in urban areas, and changes in rainfall intensity and return periods because of climate change increase urban flood risk. This study utilizes the hydraulic model Mike+ to assess the multifunctional use of existing roads and parking lots, which could serve to either retain or detain stormwater and accommodate trees, plants, and vegetation as part of a low-impact development (LID) system. The results from the study demonstrate its success in reducing urban flood risk, including the risk of basement flooding, surface runoff, discharge rates, and flow velocity at the outlet of the studied area.
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| 2. |
- Fuchs, Sven, et al.
(författare)
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The ambiguity in IPCC's risk diagram raises explanatory challenges
- 2024
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Ingår i: Natural Hazards. - : Springer. - 0921-030X .- 1573-0840.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The concept of risk remains a key aspect in the recently published 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC risk diagram shows risk as a function of three elements: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. While this relationship is undisputed, simply superimposing the individual risk factors as presented in the IPCC diagram does not do justice to the underlying definitions of the terms. This diagram can thus confuse more than it clarifies and, we argue, should be reconsidered.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Haas, Jan, Ph.D, 1983-, et al.
(författare)
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A vulnerability index for climate related risks in Sweden
- 2021
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- <p>Social vulnerability is mostly described as specific social inequalities in the context of a disaster. Following this understanding, empirical research focuses on the unequal exposure of different groups to disasters and/or on the unequal capacities of groups to anticipate, cope and recover from the impact of a hazard. Although social vulnerability has recently gained attention in academia, Sweden lacks frameworks and indicators to assess it at a national level.</p><p>Following the large amount of publicly available data in Sweden, to address this gap, we present a method for quantifying social vulnerability to climate risks in Swedish municipalities. A large number of variables were collected and analyzed to create quantitative indicators that purport to measure a municipality&#8217;s vulnerability. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the information in the variables was reduced to a smaller number of components and socioeconomic vulnerability scores for each Swedish municipality. The factor analysis resulted in five components explaining more than 75% of the total variance. The resulting components and the final index are mapped for each municipality.</p><p>The results show that socio-economic vulnerability is not evenly distributed across Sweden. Apart from those findings the fact that some municipal clusters are much more vulnerable than others, the developed method is a useful tool for comparing socio-economic conditions among municipalities and for identifying susceptible municipalities which are likely to face significant challenges in coping with future natural hazard events.</p><p>Preliminary results show similar trends of social vulnerability to natural hazards at a highly resolved spatial level of aggregation as comparted to municipal levels. As studies on social vulnerability are often data-driven and thus performed on larger administrative aggregations, the sub-set of socio-economic variables from Statistics Sweden used in this study was found useful in our approach. In order to explore social vulnerability in conjunction with coastal and fluvial flood scenarios, an interactive web map was created with ArcGIS Dashboards.</p>
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| 5. |
- Haas, Jan, Ph.D, 1983-, et al.
(författare)
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Social sårbarhet för klimatrelaterade hot : Delstudie 2: Generella och hotspecifika index för social sårbarhet i Sverige
- 2022
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Denna rapport, som redovisar del 2 av projektet Social sårbarhet för klimatrelaterade hot, syftar till att ta fram ett generellt sårbarhetsindex för Sverige, men också specifika index för tre olika naturhot: översvämning (älv respektive kust), skogsbrand och ras/skred/erosion. För dessa specifika index har sårbarheten kombinerats med en bedömd exponering för de tre olika hoten. Analysen är gjord på kommun- och RegSO-nivå.
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| 6. |
- Karagiorgos, Konstantinos, et al.
(författare)
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Cloudburst catastrophe modelling : Case study – Jönköping municipality, Sweden
- 2021
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In Europe, flash floods are one of the most significant natural hazards, causing serious risk to life and destruction of buildings and infrastructure. The intense rain causing those floods has a few different names, however, with very similar meaning. The term chosen in this study, ‘cloudburst’, was introduced by Woolley (1946) as “…a torrential downpour of rain which by its spottiness and relatively high intensity suggests the bursting and discharge of the whole cloud at once”. While these events play an important role in the ongoing flood risk management discussion, they are under-represented among flood models.The main aim of this study is to demonstrate an approach by showing how methods and techniques can be integrated together to construct a catastrophe model for flash flooding of Jönköping municipality in Sweden. The model is developed in the framework of the ‘Oasis Loss Modelling Framework’ platform, jointly with end-users from the public sector and the insurance industry. Calibration and validation of the model were conducted by comparisons against three historical cloudburst events and corresponding insurance-claim data.The analysis has shown that it is possible to get acceptable results from a cloudburst catastrophe model using only rainfall data, and not surface-water level as driving variable. The approach presented opens up for such loss modelling in places where complex hydraulic modelling cannot be done because of lacking data or skill of responsible staff. The Swedish case study indicates that the framework presented can be considered as an important decision making tool, by establishing an area for collaboration between academia; insurance businesses; and local authorities, to reduce long-term disaster risk in Sweden.
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| 7. |
- Karagiorgos, Konstantinos, et al.
(författare)
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Index över social sårbarhet för klimatrelaterade risker i Sverige
- 2021
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Studien har tagit fram ett sårbarhetsindex på kommunal nivå i Sverige, baserat på 37 socio-ekonomiska variabler. Metoden som utvecklats i USA bygger på statistisk analys (PCA) och visualisering i ett GIS. Resultaten visar på tydliga regionala skillnader för social sårbarhet. Metoden behöver fortsatt utveckling, med studier för att öka förståelsen för vad som skapar sårbarhet i en svensk kontext.
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| 8. |
- Karagiorgos, Konstantinos, et al.
(författare)
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Rain data crowdsourcing for improving urban flood risk management : Exploring the potential in Sweden
- 2022
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- <p>Urban flooding causes considerable societal damage and necessitates increased climate adaptation measures. Extreme rain events' rapid and local character make them difficult to observe, assess, predict, and warn about. One example is the flood event in Malm&#246; in 2014, not only in terms of rain intensities and volumes but also the fact that the more intense parts of the rainfall fell across central Malm&#246; with adverse consequences (approx. SEK 100 million for 1400 claims). &#160;These extreme hydrological events are generally predicted to become more frequent and damaging in Sweden due to the warming climate.</p><p>The overarching aim of this study is to develop an approach to improve urban rain safety by establishing a participatory system for collecting data to support urban flood risk modelling for the adaptation of cities to intense rainfall. Nowadays, meteorological information to improve flood risk modelling can be obtained from non-traditional sources such as privately owned weather stations and social media. Crowdsourcing techniques linked to public engagement via citizen science are frequently used across different scientific areas to supplement traditional data collection.</p><p>Our analysis compiles data from available platforms (WeatherObervationWebsite (WOW) by SMHI, Netatmo platform and WunderMap website) for different case studies. The data will be organised in databases; and validated with SMHI-certified automatic rain gauges, municipal gauges, radar data and integrated gridded products.</p><p>The approach presented opens up insights into the measurement accuracy and issues in operational crowdsourcing of private rain measurements. The new type of rain data will be used for testing their applicability with flood models. The particular focus in the testing will be on the effect of model output from added spatial resolution in rain measurements.</p>
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| 9. |
- Knös, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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Cloudburst-disaster modelling : A new open-source catastrophe model
- 2022
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Ingår i: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. - : Elsevier. - 2212-4209. ; 67
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cloudburst flash floods cause big casualties and economic losses. This study primarily investigated if a cloudburst catastrophe (cat) model could be constructed to meaningfully assess such a hazard, exposure and vulnerability in Swedish urban context. Rainfall intensity was used directly as hazard measure, bypassing hydraulic water-level modelling, to predict vulnerability. The Splash (Swedish pluvial modelling analysis and safety handling) cloudburst-disaster model was constructed using the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework, and was based on individual property values and building locations, property-level insurance-loss data, high-resolution geographical data, and rainfall data from a dense municipal gauge network in the city of Jönköping. One major cloudburst event was used to derive a vulnerability curve. The following two events were used for validation and supported the hypothesis that the vulnerability curve changed with time because of municipal flood-risk-reduction measures after the first event. A faulty rain gauge during the first event, replaced by a trustworthy private gauge, clarified the very high sensitivity to cloudburst input. Given the limited amount of loss data, our results were uncertain but they pointed towards possible ways to further this study with other loss data at other locations, possibly using more easily available aggregated loss data. We concluded that a cat model based only on rainfall intensity provided acceptable results, thus providing an opening for future, simplified cloudburst cat models applicable in most geographical contexts where reliable cloudburst data are available, especially in cities with limited topographic data and hydraulic-modelling capacity.
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| 10. |
- Nyberg, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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New data sources for cloudburst risk assessment and management
- 2022
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Ingår i: Vatten: tidskrift för vattenvård /Journal of Water Management and research. - 0042-2886. ; 78:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Urban flooding causes large societal damages and increased climate adaptation measures is needed. Therapid and local character of extreme rain events make them difficult to observe and predict, and to issuewarnings for. There is also a lack of data on urban flood damages, mainly because of scarce and nonsystematic data collection and management. In this paper, we present the approaches behind the new research project SPARC. The overarching aim of the project is to improve urban rain safety by establishinga participatory system for crowdsourcing of data, to support urban flood risk modelling and adaptation ofcities to intense rainfall. The project will also investigate flood damage mechanisms on the built environment as well as evaluate and communicate small-scale adaptation measures. Municipal water and wastewater utility organizations and insurance industry representatives will be included in a trans-disciplinaryprocess, also including crowdsourcing in a citizen science approach.
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