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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 6. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 8. |
- Karimi, Amir, et al.
(författare)
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Drought Effects on Morpho-Physiological and Biochemical Traits in Persian Oak and Black Poplar Seedlings
- 2022
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Ingår i: Forests. - : MDPI. - 1999-4907. ; 13:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In many arid and semi-arid regions, increasing water scarcity pushes woody species to their physiological limits, making strong drought resistance essential for adaptive forest management. Here, we examined morpho-physiological and biochemical drought responses of the forestry-relevant Persian oak (Quercus brantii Lindl.) and black poplar (Populus nigra L.). In a 120-day greenhouse pot experiment, seedlings were subjected to three watering regimes (FC100, FC60, and FC30, indicating percentages of field capacity). Under FC100 conditions, all biomass measures and the total and specific leaf area of oak were significantly greater compared to those of poplar. FC60-exposed poplar seedlings exhibited strong declines in relative water content (RWC; -33%) and carotenoids (-46%) and a surge in electrolyte leakage (EL; +51%), while these parameters did not change significantly in oak. Although both species showed 80% EL under FC30 conditions, poplar suffered more severe drought damage than oak as evidenced by a 65% lower survival, stronger reductions in RWC and total chlorophyll, as well as stronger increases in oxidative stress markers. Accordingly, poplar seedlings displayed a drought-related 56% decline in quality index while only statistically insignificant reductions occurred in oak seedlings. The superior drought resistance of oak seedlings implies economically more viable nursery production and better seedling establishment, suggesting a shift towards Persian oak-dominated forestry in its natural range under future climate projections.
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| 9. |
- Karimi-Fard, Abbas, et al.
(författare)
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Novel candidate genes for environmental stresses response in Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 revealed by machine learning algorithms
- 2024
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Ingår i: Brazilian journal of microbiology (Impresso). - 1517-8382 .- 1678-4405.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cyanobacteria have developed acclimation strategies to adapt to harsh environments, making them a model organism. Understanding the molecular mechanisms of tolerance to abiotic stresses can help elucidate how cells change their gene expression patterns in response to stress. Recent advances in sequencing techniques and bioinformatics analysis methods have led to the discovery of many genes involved in stress response in organisms. The Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 is a suitable microorganism for studying transcriptome response under environmental stress. Therefore, for the first time, we employed two effective feature selection techniques namely and support vector machine recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE) and LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage Selector Operator) to pinpoint the crucial genes responsive to environmental stresses in Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803. We applied these algorithms of machine learning to analyze the transcriptomic data of Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 under distinct conditions, encompassing light, salt and iron stress conditions. Seven candidate genes namely sll1862, slr0650, sll0760, slr0091, ssl3044, slr1285, and slr1687 were selected by both LASSO and SVM-RFE algorithms. RNA-seq analysis was performed to validate the efficiency of our feature selection approach in selecting the most important genes. The RNA-seq analysis revealed significantly high expression for five genes namely sll1862, slr1687, ssl3044, slr1285, and slr0650 under ion stress condition. Among these five genes, ssl3044 and slr0650 could be introduced as new potential candidate genes for further confirmatory genetic studies, to determine their roles in their response to abiotic stresses.
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| 10. |
- Karimi, Masoud, et al.
(författare)
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A retrospective study of extracolonic, non-endometrial cancer in Swedish Lynch syndrome families
- 2018
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Ingår i: Hereditary Cancer in Clinical Practice. - : BMC. - 1731-2302 .- 1897-4287. ; 16
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundLynch Syndrome is an autosomal dominant cancer syndrome caused by pathogenic germ-line variants in one of the DNA-mismatch-repair (MMR) genes MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 or PMS2. Carriers are predisposed to colorectal and endometrial cancer, but also other cancer types. The purpose of this retrospective study was to characterize the tumour spectrum of the Swedish Lynch syndrome families.MethodsData were obtained from genetically verified 235 Lynch families from five of the six health care regions in Sweden. The material was stratified for gender, primary cancer, age and mutated gene and the relative proportions of specific cancer types were compared to those in the general population.ResultsA total of 1053 family members had 1493 cancer diagnoses of which 1011 were colorectal or endometrial cancer. Individuals with pathogenic variants in MLH1 and MSH2 comprised 78% of the cohort. Among the 482 non-colorectal/non-endometrial cancer diagnoses, MSH2 carriers demonstrated a significantly increased proportion of urinary tract, gastric, small bowel, ovarian and non-melanoma skin cancer compared to the normal population. MLH1 carriers had an elevated proportion of gastrointestinal cancers (gastric, small bowel, pancreas), while MSH6 carriers had more ovarian cancer than expected. Gastric cancer was predominantly noted in older generations.ConclusionLynch syndrome confers an increased risk for multiple cancers other than colorectal and endometrial cancer. The proportions of other cancers vary between different MMR genes, with highest frequency in MSH2-carriers. Gender and age also affect the tumour spectrum, demonstrating the importance of additional environmental and constitutional parameters in determining the predisposition for different cancer types.
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