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- Karlén, Niklas
(författare)
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Changing Commitments : US Support to Rebels in Syria and Nicaragua
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The provision of external state support to non-state actors in civil wars is a dynamic process. The calculus of state sponsors varies over time, which means that assistance provided to the armed opposition fluctuates. This is rarely recognized in existing research, which has focused more on the initiation of support and its subsequent effects on conflict dynamics. While we know many of the motives behind decisions to provide support, we know less about why state sponsorship of rebels changes over time. To address this, I propose a theoretical argument that is able to account for policy adjustments over time. The theory builds on the notion that leaders change their support commitment when there is adverse feedback and that support increases as long as the causes of policy failure can be attributed to external actors, while cutbacks occur when failure is attributed to the state sponsor’s own actions. The latter prompts domestic audiences to act in order to force leaders to back down. Process tracing is used to explore the value of this framework in within-case analyses of the United States’ support commitments to insurgent groups in Nicaragua during the 1980s and in Syria during the 2010s. The study demonstrates the utility of focusing on shifts in leaders’ perceptions rather than structural features of the international system or rebel behavior to understand temporal variation in external support.
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| 3. |
- Karlén, Niklas
(författare)
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Changing Commitments : Shifts in External State Support to Rebels
- 2022
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Ingår i: Civil Wars. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1369-8249 .- 1743-968X. ; 24:1, s. 73-96
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The provision of external state support to non-state armed groups in civil wars is a dynamic process. The calculus of state sponsors varies over time, which means that assistance provided to the armed opposition fluctuates. While we know much about the initiation of external support and its effects, we know less about why state sponsorship changes over time. To address this, I propose a theoretical argument that can account for policy adjustments over time. The theory builds on the notion that leaders change their support commitment when there is adverse feedback and that support increases as long as the causes of policy failure can be attributed to external actors, while cutbacks occur when failure is attributed to the state sponsor’s own actions. Process-tracing is used to illustrate the value of this framework in a within-case analysis of the United States’ support commitment to the armed opposition in Nicaragua in the 1980s. The study demonstrates the utility of focusing on shifts in leaders’ perceptions and domestic attribution processes rather than structural features of the international system or rebel behavior to understand temporal variation in external support.
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| 4. |
- Karlén, Niklas, et al.
(författare)
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Dealers and Brokers in Civil Wars : Why States Delegate Rebel Support to Conduit Countries
- 2023
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Ingår i: International Security. - 0162-2889 .- 1531-4804. ; 47:4, s. 107-146
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- External state support to non-state armed groups is commonly seen as a direct relationship between a state sponsor and a rebel group. But powerful states often use third-party states as conduits of military aid. These intermediary states are secondary, subordinate principals that are part of extended chains of “dual delegation.” Because intermediaries are likely to have their own separate agendas, powerful states often face a double principal-agent problem when providing material support to rebel groups. The difficulties and problems associated with controlling the agent are reflected in the relationship between the principal and the intermediary. States need to identify the alignment of interests at an early stage, or risk strategic failure. There are two ideal types of intermediaries—dealers and brokers. Case studies of the United States’ support to the Mujahideen in Afghanistan and to UNITA in Angola (channeled through Pakistan and Zaire, respectively) demonstrate that intermediaries affect the provision of external support. States engaging in counterterrorism need to look beyond sponsors of terrorism and explore the role of all states involved in the process of conflict delegation. That states use intermediaries when providing support to non-state armed groups indicates that holding states accountable for violating the nonintervention principle under international law should be reconsidered.
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| 5. |
- Karlén, Niklas
(författare)
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Escalate to De-Escalate? External State Support and Governments’ Willingness to Negotiate
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Policymakers frequently claim that military assistance to rebels can force governments into negotiations. Many seem convinced that providing material assistance to rebels involved in a civil war can create a ‘ripe moment’ that is favorable for negotiations and thus offer an attractive path towards a negotiated settlement. However, this widespread belief has never been systematically assessed. This article evaluates this claim using global data on negotiations in all intrastate armed conflicts from 1975 to 2009. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the article demonstrates that external state support to rebel groups does not increase the prospect of negotiations. Neither sustained pressure, support provided by great powers, nor direct military intervention increases the probability of negotiations being initiated. Instead, the results suggest that external support is likely to reduce the likelihood of negotiations between the warring parties, especially if the state sponsor is a great power. The study contributes to our understanding of civil war processes by demonstrating that military assistance hinders rather than promotes the onset of negotiations.
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| 6. |
- Karlén, Niklas
(författare)
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Escalate to De-Escalate? External State Support and Governments’ Willingness to Negotiate
- 2023
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Ingår i: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. - 1057-610X .- 1521-0731. ; 46:8, s. 1323-1344
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Policymakers sometimes argue that material assistance to rebels involved in a civil war can create a ‘ripe moment’ that is favorable for negotiations. Ripeness theory provides support for this idea. However, this notion has never been systematically assessed. This article evaluates this claim by using global data on negotiations in all intrastate armed conflicts from 1975 to 2009. Contrary to popular belief, the article demonstrates that external state support to rebel groups does not increase the prospect of negotiations. Instead, the results suggest that external support is likely to reduce the likelihood of negotiations between the warring parties, especially if the state sponsor is a great power. The study contributes to our understanding of civil war processes by demonstrating that military assistance hinders rather than promotes the onset of negotiations and by questioning the utility of ripeness theory as the most suitable framework for understanding this phenomenon.
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| 8. |
- Karlén, Niklas, et al.
(författare)
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Forum: Conflict Delegation in Civil Wars
- 2021
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Ingår i: International Studies Review. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1521-9488 .- 1468-2486. ; 23:4, s. 2048-2078
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This forum provides an outlet for an assessment of research on the delegation of war to non-state armed groups in civil wars. Given the significant growth of studies concerned with this phenomenon over the last decade, this forum critically engages with the present state of the field. First, we canvass some of the most important theoretical developments to demonstrate the heterogeneity of the debate. Second, we expand on the theme of complexity and investigate its multiple facets as a window into pushing the debate forward. Third, we draw the contours of a future research agenda by highlighting some contemporary problems, puzzles, and challenges to empirical data collection. In essence, we seek to connect two main literatures that have been talking past each other: external support in civil wars and proxy warfare. The forum bridges this gap at a critical juncture in this new and emerging scholarship by offering space for scholarly dialogue across conceptual labels.
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| 10. |
- Karlén, Niklas
(författare)
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Proxy War Termination
- 2023. - 1
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Ingår i: Routledge Handbook of Proxy Wars. - : Routledge. - 9781032004136
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most research to date has focused on understanding why states use proxies and the impact this indirect conflict strategy has had on various conflict dynamics. Much less thought has been devoted to the more pressing and policy-relevant question of what makes some proxy relationships endure while others break down. In this chapter, I review relevant research on this topic and present a framework that outlines various ways in which proxy relationships are terminated.
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