| 1. |
- Fiedler, Stephanie, et al.
(författare)
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Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change – progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP
- 2024
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 17:6, s. 2387-2417
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The climate science community aims to improve our understanding of climate change due to anthropogenic influences on atmospheric composition and the Earth's surface. Yet not all climate interactions are fully understood, and uncertainty in climate model results persists, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We synthesize current challenges and emphasize opportunities for advancing our understanding of the interactions between atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate change, as well as for quantifying model diversity. Our perspective is based on expert views from three multi-model intercomparison projects (MIPs) – the Precipitation Driver Response MIP (PDRMIP), the Aerosol Chemistry MIP (AerChemMIP), and the Radiative Forcing MIP (RFMIP). While there are many shared interests and specializations across the MIPs, they have their own scientific foci and specific approaches. The partial overlap between the MIPs proved useful for advancing the understanding of the perturbation–response paradigm through multi-model ensembles of Earth system models of varying complexity. We discuss the challenges of gaining insights from Earth system models that face computational and process representation limits and provide guidance from our lessons learned. Promising ideas to overcome some long-standing challenges in the near future are kilometer-scale experiments to better simulate circulation-dependent processes where it is possible and machine learning approaches where they are needed, e.g., for faster and better subgrid-scale parameterizations and pattern recognition in big data. New model constraints can arise from augmented observational products that leverage multiple datasets with machine learning approaches. Future MIPs can develop smart experiment protocols that strive towards an optimal trade-off between the resolution, complexity, and number of simulations and their length and, thereby, help to advance the understanding of climate change and its impacts.
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| 2. |
- Scannell, Claire, et al.
(författare)
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The Influence of Remote Aerosol Forcing from Industrialized Economies on the Future Evolution of East and West African Rainfall
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Climate. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 32:23, s. 8335-8354
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Past changes in global industrial aerosol emissions have played a significant role in historical shifts in African rainfall, and yet assessment of the impact on African rainfall of near-term (10-40 yr) potential aerosol emission pathways remains largely unexplored. While existing literature links future aerosol declines to a northward shift of Sahel rainfall, existing climate projections rely on RCP scenarios that do not explore the range of air quality drivers. Here we present projections from two emission scenarios that better envelop the range of potential aerosol emissions. More aggressive emission cuts result in northward shifts of the tropical rainbands whose signal can emerge from expected internal variability on short, 10-20-yr time horizons. We also show for the first time that this northward shift also impacts East Africa, with evidence of delays to both onset and withdrawal of the short rains. However, comparisons of rainfall impacts across models suggest that only certain aspects of both the West and East African model responses may be robust, given model uncertainties. This work motivates the need for wider exploration of air quality scenarios in the climate science community to assess the robustness of these projected changes and to provide evidence to underpin climate adaptation in Africa. In particular, revised estimates of emission impacts of legislated measures every 5-10 years would have a value in providing near-term climate adaptation information for African stakeholders.
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| 3. |
- Stiller-Reeve, Mathew, et al.
(författare)
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Improving together: better science writing through peer learning
- 2016
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Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 20, s. 2965-2973
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Science, in our case the climate and geosciences, is increasingly interdisciplinary. Scientists must therefore com- municate across disciplinary boundaries. For this communi- cation to be successful, scientists must write clearly and con- cisely, yet the historically poor standard of scientific writing does not seem to be improving. Scientific writing must im- prove, and the key to long-term improvement lies with the early-career scientist (ECS). Many interventions exist for an ECS to improve their writing, like style guides and courses. However, momentum is often difficult to maintain after these interventions are completed. Continuity is key to improving writing. This paper introduces the ClimateSnack project, which aims to motivate ECSs to develop and continue to improve their writing and communication skills. The project adopts a peer-learning framework where ECSs voluntarily form writ- ing groups at different institutes around the world. The group members learn, discuss, and improve their writing skills to- gether. Several ClimateSnack writing groups have formed. This paper examines why some of the groups have flourished and others have dissolved. We identify the challenges involved in making a writing group successful and effective, notably the leadership of self-organized groups, and both individual and institutional time management. Within some of the groups, peer learning clearly offers a powerful tool to improve writ- ing as well as bringing other benefits, including improved general communication skills and increased confidence.
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