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- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Arseneault, Mathieu, et al.
(författare)
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The Dawn of Thiol-Yne Triazine Triones Thermosets as a New Material Platform Suited for Hard Tissue Repair
- 2018
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Ingår i: Advanced Materials. - : Wiley. - 0935-9648 .- 1521-4095. ; 30:52
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The identification of a unique set of advanced materials that can bear extraordinary loads for use in bone and tooth repair will inevitably unlock unlimited opportunities for clinical use. Herein, the design of high-performance thermosets is reported based on triazine-trione (TATO) monomers using light-initiated thiol-yne coupling (TYC) chemistry as a polymerization strategy. In comparison to traditional thiol-ene coupling (TEC) systems, TYC chemistry has yielded highly dense networks with unprecedented mechanical properties. The most promising system notes 4.6 GPa in flexural modulus and 160 MPa in flexural strength, an increase of 84% in modulus and 191% in strength when compared to the corresponding TATO system based on TEC chemistry. Remarkably, the mechanical properties exceed those of polylactide (PLA) and challenge poly(ether ether ketone) PEEK and today's methacrylate-based dental resin composites. All the materials display excellent biocompatibility, in vitro, and are successfully: i) molded into medical devices for fracture repair, and ii) used as bone adhesive for fracture fixation and as tooth fillers with the outstanding bond strength that outperform methacrylate systems used today in dental restoration application. Collectively, a new era of advanced TYC materials is unfolded that can fulfill the preconditions as bone fixating implants and for tooth restorations.
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| 4. |
- Djalalinia, Shirin, et al.
(författare)
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Prevalence and Years Lived with Disability of 310 Diseases and Injuries in Iran and its Neighboring Countries, 1990-2015 : Findings from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2017
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Ingår i: Archives of Iranian Medicine. - 1029-2977 .- 1735-3947. ; 20:7, s. 392-402
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Due to significant achievements in reducing mortality and increasing life expectancy, the issue of disability from diseases and injuries, and their related interventions, has become one of the most important concerns of health-related research.METHODS: Using data obtained from the GBD 2015 study, the present report provides prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of 310 diseases and injuries by sex and age in Iran and neighboring countries over the period 1990-2015. Age-standardized rates of all causes of YLDs are presented for both males and females in 16 countries for 1990 and 2015. We present the percentage of total YLDs for 21 categories of diseases and injuries, the percentage of YLDs for age groups, as well as the ranking of the most prevalent causes and YLDs from the top 50 diseases and injuries in Iran.RESULTS: In 2015, the burden of 310 diseases and injuries among the Iranian population was responsible for 8,357,878 loss of all-age total years, which is equal to 10.58% of total years lived per year. This differs from the neighboring countries, as it ranges from 9.05% in Turkmenistan to 13.36% in Russia. During the past 25 years, a remarkable decrease was observed in all-cause YLD rates in all 16 countries. Meanwhile, in all countries, the age-standardized rate of all causes of YLDs was higher in females than males.CONCLUSION: Based on our findings, one of the remarkable changes in NCDs observed among the studied age groups was increased rate of YLDs from mental disorders, which was replaced by musculoskeletal disorders in older age groups in 2015.
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| 6. |
- Gowan, Evan J., et al.
(författare)
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A new global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80000 years
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The evolution of past global ice sheets is highly uncertain. One example is the missing ice problem during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 26000-19000 years before present) - an apparent 8-28 m discrepancy between far-field sea level indicators and modelled sea level from ice sheet reconstructions. In the absence of ice sheet reconstructions, researchers often use marine delta O-18 proxy records to infer ice volume prior to the LGM. We present a global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80000 years, called PaleoMIST 1.0, constructed independently of far-field sea level and delta O-18 proxy records. Our reconstruction is compatible with LGM far-field sea-level records without requiring extra ice volume, thus solving the missing ice problem. However, for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (57000-29000 years before present) - a pre-LGM period - our reconstruction does not match proxy-based sea level reconstructions, indicating the relationship between marine delta O-18 and sea level may be more complex than assumed. The configuration of past ice sheets, and therefore sea level, is highly uncertain. Here, the authors provide a global reconstruction of ice sheets for the past 80,000 years that allows to test proxy based sea level reconstructions and helps to reconcile disagreements with sea level changes inferred from models.
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| 8. |
- Khosravi, Sara, et al.
(författare)
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Beam Alignment Using Trajectory Information in Mobile Millimeter-wave Networks
- 2023
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Ingår i: ICC 2023 - IEEE International Conference on Communications. - : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Millimeter-wave and terahertz systems rely on beam-forming/combining codebooks to determine the best beam directions during the initial access and data transmission. Existing approaches suffer from large codebook sizes and high beam searching overhead in the presence of mobile devices. To address this issue, we utilize the similarity of the channel in adjacent locations to divide the user trajectory into a set of separate regions and maintain a set of candidate beams for each region in a database. Due to the tradeoff between the number of regions and the signalling overhead, i.e., the greater number of regions results in a higher signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) but also a larger signalling overhead for the database, we propose an optimization framework to find the minimum number of regions based on the trajectory of a mobile device. Using a ray tracing tool, we demonstrate that the proposed method provides high SNR while being more robust to the location information accuracy in comparison to the lookup table baseline and fixed size region baseline.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Khosravi, Sara, 1987-, et al.
(författare)
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Efficient Beamforming for Mobile mmWave Networks
- 2019
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We design a lightweight beam-searching algorithmfor mobile millimeter-wave systems. We construct and maintaina set of path skeletons, i.e., potential paths between a user and theserving base station to substantially expedite the beam-searchingprocess. To exploit the spatial correlations of the channels, wepropose an efficient algorithm that measures the similarity ofthe skeletons and re-executes the beam-searching procedure onlywhen the old one becomes obsolete. We identify and optimizeseveral tradeoffs between: i) the beam-searching overhead andthe instantaneous rate of the users, and ii) the number of usersand the update overhead of the path skeletons. Simulation resultsin an outdoor environment with real building map data show thatthe proposed method can significantly improve the performanceof beam-searching in terms of latency, energy consumption andachievable throughout.
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