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- Hellgren, Rikard, 1988-, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating the effect of ice load on a concrete dams displacement with regression models
- 2017
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Ingår i: <em>Proceedings ICOLD 2017 International Symposium</em>. - Prag.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In colder climates, the ice load is an important factor to consider when assessing the dam safety. The size of the ice load is associated with uncertainties, regarding both its maximum size and seasonal variation. There is today no reliable method to determine the ice load acting on a dam, since available measurements and theories results in a large scatter regarding the maximum ice loads.In this project, the possibility to determine the ice load based on traditional measurements of a dam behavior is investigated. It’s evaluated if the ice thickness is a significant predictor for the displacement of a Swedish arch dam. A case study on inverted pendulums was performed where dynamic regression models were used to calculate the displacement of the dam.The model showed significant results which could explain the displacements. The ice thickness shows an effect on a 5 % significance level. The results indicate that the seasonal ice load is large enough to be traceable, and could be determined from conventional pendulum measurements. Since pendulums are installed on a large number of dams, a method that estimates the ice load from those measurements could vastly reduce uncertainties regarding ice loads on dams.
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